Is this really a buyer’s market?

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by ghostmarcelle

Not to derail this thread, but the OCD thing is very interesting to me. While I do consider myself to be OCD it's not about centering but rather image quality, registration in particular. The Musial is a great example and is a particular favorite of mine (I have both variations) - but both the beautifully centered cards shown here would absolutely drive me crazy. Here is one of mine:

Bravo, you beat me to this exact post. I'd much rather have an OC card with close to perfect print, color, and image quality than I would have a 50/50 dead nuts centered card with those problems. To me the image is the most important thing about a card, and the fact that it's not even expressly cared for in a universal grading system that only looks at corners, surface, edges and centering is increasingly ludicrous in a hobby that is supposed to be about visual appeal.



Beautiful Musial, btw. Some of my wins in the same vein which got me gorgeous print and picture despite other flaws include a '57 Mays, a '63 Mantle, a less than fantastically centered '73 Schmidt RC (I traded a better centered one with print snow for it...) - and this '59 Mantle which sorry, the grade on the flip might not be noteworthy - but I would challenge you to find even some PSA 7's or 8's with print as clean as this one has. Even high grade copies often have something with print going on in the red background, or print messed up in some way in the stands behind his head. Extremely pleased w/ this one...

[jsfriedm]

John, I agree 100%. Image quality -color, registration, lack of print defects - above all else. My Willie Mays rookie may be off-center, but it is extremely hard to find a copy with printing this clean:

[cardsagain74]

I know that vintage prices have faltered some at the big AHs lately, but I don't get these arguments of ebay being so stagnant now. Have been looking to fill a few holes in the vintage collection for awhile (stuff like a Bart Starr rookie around grade 4, low-mid grade Maravich rookie, basically stuff in the $100-$800 range), and there have been about ten '57 T Starr rookies sold at around comps in just the last two weeks. Some auction and some BIN.

Similar story with the other '50s-'70s vintage I watch.

[bbcard1]

I hate to share my secrets. but since we are all cardboard cousins, I'll let you know how I can immediately spot a good buy on the B/S/T board.

As soon as I see the listing it says SOLD.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by bbcard1

I hate to share my secrets. but since we are all cardboard cousins, I'll let you know how I can immediately spot a good buy on the B/S/T board.

As soon as I see the listing it says SOLD.

Ha! Now that's some insider knowledge right there...

[packs]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

I know that vintage prices have faltered some at the big AHs lately, but I don't get these arguments of ebay being so stagnant now. Have been looking to fill a few holes in the vintage collection for awhile (stuff like a Bart Starr rookie around grade 4, low-mid grade Maravich rookie, basically stuff in the $100-$800 range), and there have been about ten '57 T Starr rookies sold at around comps in just the last two weeks. Some auction and some BIN.

Similar story with the other '50s-'70s vintage I watch.

I guess it depends on what you collect. There are far less pre-war cards on eBay than ever before. I just searched "Ty Cobb T206" and there were 22 results for auctions (not buy it now). Of those results, only 2 cards have bids. The rest have high opening bids that people aren't interested in placing.

But five years ago I feel like you would have found 10 or 12 competitive Cobb auctions at any given time, all starting at $1.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Similar to what everybody else has mentioned here, my eBay vintage card sales are also up the last couple of years. But, I am picking and choosing which cards are for sale there, this week, I sold a Norm Van Brockton RC in a PSA 3 holder, a 1986 Donruss The Rookies Barry Bonds in a BGS 9.5 holder and a Mickey Cochrane RC in an SGC 3 holder. At the same time, I have opted to hold on to my 39 PB Ted Williams, 07 Cobb RC, etc. you get the idea. I think we are losing track of the purpose of this thread, whether or not buyers are fully able to take advantage of down market prices as numerous content creators are portraying on YouTube. I say not because eBay selection is nothing close to what it was a couple of years ago. You can settle for what’s out there, mostly low-end appeal for the grade or overpay for high eye appeal and there is no bargain being had that way. So again, I ask where is the buyer’s market that is being promoted so highly.

Let’s just call it like we see it, market was overheated and corrected and things are very tough in the hobby these days for most (except maybe the 6 and 7 figure buyers).

[packs]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Similar to what everybody else has mentioned here, my eBay vintage card sales are also up the last couple of years. But, I am picking and choosing which cards are for sale there, this week, I sold a Norm Van Brockton RC in a PSA 3 holder, a 1986 Donruss The Rookies Barry Bonds in a BGS 9.5 holder and a Mickey Cochrane RC in an SGC 3 holder. At the same time, I have opted to hold on to my 39 PB Ted Williams, 07 Cobb RC, etc. you get the idea. I think we are losing track of the purpose of this thread, whether or not buyers are fully able to take advantage of down market prices as numerous content creators are portraying on YouTube. I say not because eBay selection is nothing close to what it was a couple of years ago. You can settle for what’s out there, mostly low-end appeal for the grade or overpay for high eye appeal and there is no bargain being had that way. So again, I ask where is the buyer’s market that is being promoted so highly.

Let’s just call it like we see it, market was overheated and corrected and things are very tough in the hobby these days for most (except maybe the 6 and 7 figure buyers).

Again, I think it depends on what you're buying. If you're into modern basketball, then it truly is a buyer's market. Mainstream rookies of modern players like Lebron have come WAY down.

Here's an article from 2021 that captured the trend even then:

https://www.one37pm.com/popular-cult...rts-cards-2021

[bcbgcbrcb]

You are absolutely right there, nobody knows the down modern (and vintage almost equally) basketball market like I do. Back in 2021, I bought one card each, every one was a rookie patch/jersey auto graded 8 or higher (except one 2001 Jordan that ended up grading an SGC 5 of the following players: Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Luka, Joker, Giannis, Harden, Lillard, Kyrie, A Davis, Trae, 4 Ja’s, along with non-autos of: LeBron, Kobe, Jordan, Hakeem, Barkley, Duncan, Dirk, K Malone. Let’s say I spent $56K for all of those, which is pretty accurate, I sold everything this year as prices continued to plummet all year long before they got down to zero and grossed roughly $19K. That’s close to a 70% loss on everything mentioned there. Does anyone think I made the wrong player choices on who to buy? And, this is not including the Wilt, Oscar, West, Kareem, Dr J and Bird/Magic that are all down roughly the same percentage but I have decided to hang on to those thus far.

Nothing has taken a beating like the basketball card market as that was the most overinflated to begin with and most manipulated by particular influencers, auction houses, players, sneaker heads, and fractional share companies. That’s why I started a separate thread a week or two ago looking to name names of who was responsible for this.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by packs

I guess it depends on what you collect. There are far less pre-war cards on eBay than ever before. I just searched "Ty Cobb T206" and there were 22 results for auctions (not buy it now). Of those results, only 2 cards have bids. The rest have high opening bids that people aren't interested in placing.

But five years ago I feel like you would have found 10 or 12 competitive Cobb auctions at any given time, all starting at $1.

I think this has more to do with the relative value of the cards themselves than anything else. Once a card eclipses a certain threshold, eBay often loses its appeal as a selling platform for a lot of sellers. 5 years ago, those cards were quite a bit cheaper, and thus eBay was a more attractive option for them as a seller. Today, more of them are being sent to the bigger auction houses where they typically fetch stronger hammer prices. But in my experience, for cards below the $1,000 level or so, eBay still flourishes.

That said, I wish more higher end transactions occurred on eBay. Because the selling fees are SO much lower there. It only costs me about $500 to sell a $15k card on eBay. Whereas it's about $1500 to $3k in fees at the big AHs.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think this has more to do with the relative value of the cards themselves than anything else. Once a card eclipses a certain threshold, eBay often loses its appeal as a selling platform for a lot of sellers. 5 years ago, those cards were quite a bit cheaper, and thus eBay was a more attractive option for them as a seller. Today, more of them are being sent to the bigger auction houses where they typically fetch stronger hammer prices. But in my experience, for cards below the $1,000 level or so, eBay still flourishes.

That said, I wish more higher end transactions occurred on eBay. Because the selling fees are SO much lower there. It only costs me about $500 to sell a $15k card on eBay. Whereas it's about $1500 to $3k in fees at the big AHs.

How are you paying only 3 percent?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How are you paying only 3 percent?

You just need to pay for an ebay store. Which is $21.95 per month. Once you have a store, you get 1,000 listings per month with no insertion fees and your selling fees are 12.35% on the first $2500 and just 2.35% on anything after that to cover the payment processing fees. It's a great deal. I sold one of my 48 Leaf Jackies there for $15k and my total fees came to $602.50.

A lot of people don't know this. I have buyers trying to negotiate with me on other platforms and they always assume I'm paying 10-15% in ebay fees until I tell them otherwise. They're always surprised. Ebay should market their fee structure to this hobby. I bet it would get a lot of nice high end cards back to their platform. Many of the large AHs are basically just stealing money from us, IMO. The smaller auction houses that deal with mostly lower value cards, it makes sense. But with the big ones who won't even return your phone call for less than $25k, those guys are just robbing everyone blind.

[Exhibitman]

Interesting tidbit re modern-ish cards. I say "ish" because modern to me and modern to a collector who started in 2020 are entirely different things. I have quite a nice stack of 1996-1999 baseball stars and numbered parallels and I was pricing them for sale at shows using recent eBay pricing. Prices are not down across the board for modern-ish baseball parallel and limited cards. Most prices are down but some players and some issues are doing just fine, particularly non-RC Jeter and Griffey, many of which have gone up since I last checked them about 15 months ago. A few of the limited and popular late 1990s cards are actually going up. Modern boxing is up; it never really caught the COVID wave.

My sample is limited, just a few shows, but the 1980s-1990s cards are popular with younger collectors and collectors of modest means. One thing that bodes well for vintage is that I see kids excited to get modern cards reproducing the classics that they cannot afford (Topps and Bowman golden age) and commons from older and obscure sets.

I am talking raw cards, not slabs, BTW.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Interesting tidbit re modern-ish cards. I say "ish" because modern to me and modern to a collector who started in 2020 are entirely different things. I have quite a nice stack of 1996-1999 baseball stars and numbered parallels and I was pricing them for sale at shows using recent eBay pricing. Prices are not down across the board for modern-ish baseball parallel and limited cards. Most prices are down but some players and some issues are doing just fine, particularly non-RC Jeter and Griffey, many of which have gone up since I last checked them about 15 months ago. A few of the limited and popular late 1990s cards are actually going up. Modern boxing is up; it never really caught the COVID wave.

My sample is limited, just a few shows, but the 1980s-1990s cards are popular with younger collectors and collectors of modest means. One thing that bodes well for vintage is that I see kids excited to get modern cards reproducing the classics that they cannot afford (Topps and Bowman golden age) and commons from older and obscure sets.

I am talking raw cards, not slabs, BTW.

Late 1990s #'d Barry Larkin are still strong. A Fleer Brilliants 24 Karat with printing line, not graded, went for more than $1k on ebay this month. 64 bids.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

[Fred]

It's a buyers market if you think about the amount of material available for sale.

If you're basing "buyer's market" on price, then I think it's got a way to drop before it's that kind of "buyer's market".

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Fred

If you're basing "buyer's market" on price, then I think it's got a way to drop before it's that kind of "buyer's market".

Agreed, that kind of buyers market needs a capitulation cycle and that hasn't happened yet.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Agreed, that kind of buyers market needs a capitulation cycle and that hasn't happened yet.

Yup. As far as I am concerned, the only time it is a buyers market is after the prices have dropped, and that won't happen as long as shows are overrun with customers and dealers line up to be wait-listed. I am really, really curious what will happen next week in Pasadena. it is a new show from a promoter with extensive experience in Vegas and Phoenix. We haven't had a decent show in the LA metro area in years, other than the Burbank Show, so there is a ton of pent-up demand.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Yup. As far as I am concerned, the only time it is a buyers market is after the prices have dropped, and that won't happen as long as shows are overrun with customers and dealers line up to be wait-listed. I am really, really curious what will happen next week in Pasadena. it is a new show from a promoter with extensive experience in Vegas and Phoenix. We haven't had a decent show in the LA metro area in years, other than the Burbank Show, so there is a ton of pent-up demand.

Adam,

How big do you think the show in Pasadena will be? Do you know if there are going to be a lot of "vintage" dealers?

[Exhibitman]

The promoter told me there are, but I guess we will see. Web site says 180 tables.



I'm putting out a Chandy Greenholt style table: no showcases, just a ton of picking.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Bravo, you beat me to this exact post. I'd much rather have an OC card with close to perfect print, color, and image quality than I would have a 50/50 dead nuts centered card with those problems. To me the image is the most important thing about a card, and the fact that it's not even expressly cared for in a universal grading system that only looks at corners, surface, edges and centering is increasingly ludicrous in a hobby that is supposed to be about visual appeal.

Print registration and print defects are absolutely taken into account during the grading process at every TPG. I had a 52 Bowman Mantle that had poor registration but was otherwise in EX-MT condition and it received a 3 because of the print flaws.

I would say that when it comes to eye appeal, everything matters. The registration, the color, print flaws like fisheyes and print lines, creases, centering, and even corners & edges. Everyone has their own hierarchy of which flaws matter most and how much. But for the majority of collectors, the centering is what jumps out at them first, at least for bordered cards, and in particular when they're extremely OC. You just can't miss it. Same is true for registration which is wildly off. Again, you just can't miss it.

That said, the degree of difficulty with respect to how difficult it is to find cards that are well registered vs how difficult it is to find cards that are truly centered is night and day. The vast majority of vintage cards are well-registered, with the exception of a few sets with known issues like 48 Leaf. However, finding a card that has 50/50 centering both ways is borderline impossible for so many cards and at least extremely difficult for the rest. Less than 5% of all vintage cards are truly centered, and for many key cards, that number is less than 1%.

People here often talk about how common the 52 Topps Mantle is and the fact that there are multiple copies of it available in every major auction. That's certainly true, but good luck finding one that's dead-centered. I can count on both hands the number of dead-centered copies that have ever surfaced on any major auction platform in VCP's entire history. The same is true of the 52 Topps Jackie Robinson. I went through every single sold copy on VCP, one by one (there are over 1,000 in grades 3 or higher with no creases) and there were 9, yes NINE, total copies that were 50/50 both ways in over 1,000 sales, and only 23 that were close, but just a little off in one direction. Yet out of those 1,000+ copies, nearly all of them are well registered. There are a few here and there with some other print quality issues, but for the most part, at least 80% of mid to high-grade copies have excellent registration and no major print defects. This is why centering commands such a higher premium than registration. It's just immensely more difficult to find.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Print registration and print defects are absolutely taken into account during the grading process at every TPG. I had a 52 Bowman Mantle that had poor registration but was otherwise in EX-MT condition and it received a 3 because of the print flaws.

I would say that when it comes to eye appeal, everything matters. The registration, the color, print flaws like fisheyes and print lines, creases, centering, and even corners & edges. Everyone has their own hierarchy of which flaws matter most and how much. But for the majority of collectors, the centering is what jumps out at them first, at least for bordered cards, and in particular when they're extremely OC. You just can't miss it. Same is true for registration which is wildly off. Again, you just can't miss it.

I would agree that print and focus are considerations, and maybe more so for iconic / expensive cards - but the way that standard is applied is pretty erratic. For cards that are not Bowman Mantles, I have seen focus issues treated in various ways, but the majority of the time - if a card is NM otherwise with poor focus, that card is apt to get a higher grade than an EX card with no focus problems. I get it, and am not saying the grade is wrong per se, I'm just saying there is no hard standard; focus is one of those subjective things (what is badly OF to me might be slightly OF to you...) and the grading standards as with so many things aren't really clear here. I don't think I'm a true OCD candidate, but if I do have a touch of it - mine runs much more towards noticing print and focus problems than it does centering - so that's just what I'm inclined to point out first. I do think it would be nice if print and focus as a grading criteria could be seperated out just from "Surface" - which is ostensibly the physical condition of the cardboard stock and more concerned just with wrinkles, creases, dents, dings, tears, etc.

I would agree with you on the whole that for vintage it's far easier to find a well printed and focused card than it is a perfectly centered one. Don't get me wrong, I get the concern and don't fault you and others in the centering camp. I realize that I'm able to get cards that I still find appealing at a discount due to moderate centering problems, and that to a large degree the centering hysteria over the last 20 years or so is responsible for that. So thanks.