Is this really a buyer’s market?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

If you are one of those who watch YouTube content regularly, you have surely heard just about every channel lately touting what a great time it is to buy sports cards with prices being so far below levels of a year or two ago. Well, today I did some exploring on eBay, searching for the GOAT vintage basketball cards that have come down the most over the past couple of years. As a buyer looking for good deals on ‘61 Fleer Wilts, Oscars, Jerrys and ‘69 Kareems, I came up empty handed. Beginning with the lowest PSA priced of each one of those cards, all I found was every single card with roughly 90/10 centering one way or the other or both with basically zero exhibiting what I would describe as superior eye appeal for the grade. I went up to around PSA 5 levels for each without being able to find a single example that I would be looking to jump on if I had the excess funds to make a purchase right now. As just a small sampling, I didn’t do any football, hockey or baseball but would expect to find similar results.

So, my conclusion is that no sellers or extremely few sellers are willing to part with their high eye appeal cards in this market and if they could possibly just hold on to all of them without selling, they absolutely will do that. Thus, where does that leave the astute buyer looking to take advantage of the down market as everyone is promoting? Take what you can get? This doesn’t seem like an ideal buying strategy to me.

I think the cards you were looking for are an exception though. I consider myself an expert on 61 Fleer basketball. It's probably the set I know more about than any other set in any sport. It's a very special set. I am also a centering obsessed collector with clinically diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder. I'd wager good money that there isn't a single person on the planet who is more anal about their 61 Fleer set than I am. I upgrade every card in the set to a better-centered copy every chance I get. Pics of my set are below because YAY PICS!

Here are some fun facts:

1) I have never in my life encountered a truly 50/50 centered 1961 Fleer Jerry West RC. It just so happens to align on the sheet at the intersection of the most commonly miscut row and the 2nd most commonly miscut column. I have searched for years for one of these. I saw two that were close. I lost out on one and the other was overgraded and way overpriced (5x "comps"). Mine is centered L/R but off T/B.

2) A centered Wilt RC pops up maybe once every year or two. They're also super rare. A centered Elgin Baylor RC usually gets rejected by PSA. And I've only seen maybe 3 centered Oscar Robertson RCs ever. Mind you, I've searched this set weekly for years.

3) The entire set is hands down the most wildly miscut set that I'm aware of (perhaps there is some random obscure issue set that could be worse, but I doubt it). Finding any card in this set that is truly centered is like finding a needle in a haystack. Even in high grade. Nearly every 8, 9, and 10 I've seen is still too OC for me.

4) PSA graders have no clue how to grade these cards. They are CONSTANTLY rejected as "minsize" due to ignorance on PSA's part. The factory cuts on these are often narrow, and the factory heights vary by more than 3/4"!! Especially card numbers 1-6, which make up the rightmost column of the uncut sheet. Every single copy of cards 1-6 (which includes 4 HOF RCs: Elgin Baylor RC, Attles RC, Bellamy RC, and Arizin RC) measures narrow. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Every copy that has ever been slabbed by PSA, and every copy they reject. That's just how the sheets were cut. Cards from the rightmost column are narrower than every other card in the set. Getting one through grading at PSA is simply a matter of luck. Did the grader measure it that day or not? I have a centered Arizin that PSA refuses to grade despite the fact that it was in a PSA 7 holder when I bought it (it deserves an 8.5).

Cliff notes: I wouldn't use 1961 Fleer basketball as a proxy for the rest of the market. It has its own set of rules.


These are the cards in my set (a few have been upgraded since the pics were taken).

...

[Snowman]

It's probably also worth pointing out that the only cards I've seen sliding in price are cards with lower eye appeal. Dead-centered high-eye appeal cards that are difficult to find are still setting records nearly every time they hit an auction block.

As another recent example, I just won this 1963 Topps Mantle at auction on Sunday night. I had to pay $1600 to get it. "Comps" for a PSA 5 are ~$550. Set a new all-time high for the grade. You just can't find cards like this very often. There are plenty of 8s and 9s that surface, but almost none of them look as good as this one. Collectors who care about what their cards know this, and they are still willing to bid whatever it takes to get their cards.

.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Snowman

As another recent example, I just won this 1963 Topps Mantle at auction on Sunday night. I had to pay $1600 to get it. "Comps" for a PSA 5 are ~$550. Set a new all-time high for the grade. You just can't find cards like this very often.

Super nice Mantle, congrats. I have an SGC 5 that on paper would be comparable to that, but of course it's OC top to bottom. It also probably cost about 30% of what you paid...

[ghostmarcelle]

Not to derail this thread, but the OCD thing is very interesting to me. While I do consider myself to be OCD it's not about centering but rather image quality, registration in particular. The Musial is a great example and is a particular favorite of mine (I have both variations) - but both the beautifully centered cards shown here would absolutely drive me crazy. Here is one of mine:

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by ghostmarcelle

Not to derail this thread, but the OCD thing is very interesting to me. While I do consider myself to be OCD it's not about centering but rather image quality, registration in particular. The Musial is a great example and is a particular favorite of mine (I have both variations) - but both the beautifully centered cards shown here would absolutely drive me crazy. Here is one of mine:

Bravo, you beat me to this exact post. I'd much rather have an OC card with close to perfect print, color, and image quality than I would have a 50/50 dead nuts centered card with those problems. To me the image is the most important thing about a card, and the fact that it's not even expressly cared for in a universal grading system that only looks at corners, surface, edges and centering is increasingly ludicrous in a hobby that is supposed to be about visual appeal.



Beautiful Musial, btw. Some of my wins in the same vein which got me gorgeous print and picture despite other flaws include a '57 Mays, a '63 Mantle, a less than fantastically centered '73 Schmidt RC (I traded a better centered one with print snow for it...) - and this '59 Mantle which sorry, the grade on the flip might not be noteworthy - but I would challenge you to find even some PSA 7's or 8's with print as clean as this one has. Even high grade copies often have something with print going on in the red background, or print messed up in some way in the stands behind his head. Extremely pleased w/ this one...

[jsfriedm]

John, I agree 100%. Image quality -color, registration, lack of print defects - above all else. My Willie Mays rookie may be off-center, but it is extremely hard to find a copy with printing this clean:

[cardsagain74]

I know that vintage prices have faltered some at the big AHs lately, but I don't get these arguments of ebay being so stagnant now. Have been looking to fill a few holes in the vintage collection for awhile (stuff like a Bart Starr rookie around grade 4, low-mid grade Maravich rookie, basically stuff in the $100-$800 range), and there have been about ten '57 T Starr rookies sold at around comps in just the last two weeks. Some auction and some BIN.

Similar story with the other '50s-'70s vintage I watch.

[Fred]

It's a buyers market if you think about the amount of material available for sale.

If you're basing "buyer's market" on price, then I think it's got a way to drop before it's that kind of "buyer's market".

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Bravo, you beat me to this exact post. I'd much rather have an OC card with close to perfect print, color, and image quality than I would have a 50/50 dead nuts centered card with those problems. To me the image is the most important thing about a card, and the fact that it's not even expressly cared for in a universal grading system that only looks at corners, surface, edges and centering is increasingly ludicrous in a hobby that is supposed to be about visual appeal.

Print registration and print defects are absolutely taken into account during the grading process at every TPG. I had a 52 Bowman Mantle that had poor registration but was otherwise in EX-MT condition and it received a 3 because of the print flaws.

I would say that when it comes to eye appeal, everything matters. The registration, the color, print flaws like fisheyes and print lines, creases, centering, and even corners & edges. Everyone has their own hierarchy of which flaws matter most and how much. But for the majority of collectors, the centering is what jumps out at them first, at least for bordered cards, and in particular when they're extremely OC. You just can't miss it. Same is true for registration which is wildly off. Again, you just can't miss it.

That said, the degree of difficulty with respect to how difficult it is to find cards that are well registered vs how difficult it is to find cards that are truly centered is night and day. The vast majority of vintage cards are well-registered, with the exception of a few sets with known issues like 48 Leaf. However, finding a card that has 50/50 centering both ways is borderline impossible for so many cards and at least extremely difficult for the rest. Less than 5% of all vintage cards are truly centered, and for many key cards, that number is less than 1%.

People here often talk about how common the 52 Topps Mantle is and the fact that there are multiple copies of it available in every major auction. That's certainly true, but good luck finding one that's dead-centered. I can count on both hands the number of dead-centered copies that have ever surfaced on any major auction platform in VCP's entire history. The same is true of the 52 Topps Jackie Robinson. I went through every single sold copy on VCP, one by one (there are over 1,000 in grades 3 or higher with no creases) and there were 9, yes NINE, total copies that were 50/50 both ways in over 1,000 sales, and only 23 that were close, but just a little off in one direction. Yet out of those 1,000+ copies, nearly all of them are well registered. There are a few here and there with some other print quality issues, but for the most part, at least 80% of mid to high-grade copies have excellent registration and no major print defects. This is why centering commands such a higher premium than registration. It's just immensely more difficult to find.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Print registration and print defects are absolutely taken into account during the grading process at every TPG. I had a 52 Bowman Mantle that had poor registration but was otherwise in EX-MT condition and it received a 3 because of the print flaws.

I would say that when it comes to eye appeal, everything matters. The registration, the color, print flaws like fisheyes and print lines, creases, centering, and even corners & edges. Everyone has their own hierarchy of which flaws matter most and how much. But for the majority of collectors, the centering is what jumps out at them first, at least for bordered cards, and in particular when they're extremely OC. You just can't miss it. Same is true for registration which is wildly off. Again, you just can't miss it.

I would agree that print and focus are considerations, and maybe more so for iconic / expensive cards - but the way that standard is applied is pretty erratic. For cards that are not Bowman Mantles, I have seen focus issues treated in various ways, but the majority of the time - if a card is NM otherwise with poor focus, that card is apt to get a higher grade than an EX card with no focus problems. I get it, and am not saying the grade is wrong per se, I'm just saying there is no hard standard; focus is one of those subjective things (what is badly OF to me might be slightly OF to you...) and the grading standards as with so many things aren't really clear here. I don't think I'm a true OCD candidate, but if I do have a touch of it - mine runs much more towards noticing print and focus problems than it does centering - so that's just what I'm inclined to point out first. I do think it would be nice if print and focus as a grading criteria could be seperated out just from "Surface" - which is ostensibly the physical condition of the cardboard stock and more concerned just with wrinkles, creases, dents, dings, tears, etc.

I would agree with you on the whole that for vintage it's far easier to find a well printed and focused card than it is a perfectly centered one. Don't get me wrong, I get the concern and don't fault you and others in the centering camp. I realize that I'm able to get cards that I still find appealing at a discount due to moderate centering problems, and that to a large degree the centering hysteria over the last 20 years or so is responsible for that. So thanks.

[Leon]

Those are phenominal. I am a centering nut too. I probably paid 1.5x - 2x comps for this Musial...and I love it. It's now in a CSG 1.5 holder, which I feel is the correct grade for it.

And of course I agree with the thought that great visual-appeal cards continue to do very well!

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think the cards you were looking for are an exception though. I consider myself an expert on 61 Fleer basketball. It's probably the set I know more about than any other set in any sport. It's a very special set. I am also a centering obsessed collector with clinically diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder. I'd wager good money that there isn't a single person on the planet who is more anal about their 61 Fleer set than I am. I upgrade every card in the set to a better-centered copy every chance I get. Pics of my set are below because YAY PICS!

Here are some fun facts:

1) I have never in my life encountered a truly 50/50 centered 1961 Fleer Jerry West RC. It just so happens to align on the sheet at the intersection of the most commonly miscut row and the 2nd most commonly miscut column. I have searched for years for one of these. I saw two that were close. I lost out on one and the other was overgraded and way overpriced (5x "comps"). Mine is centered L/R but off T/B.

2) A centered Wilt RC pops up maybe once every year or two. They're also super rare. A centered Elgin Baylor RC usually gets rejected by PSA. And I've only seen maybe 3 centered Oscar Robertson RCs ever. Mind you, I've searched this set weekly for years.

3) The entire set is hands down the most wildly miscut set that I'm aware of (perhaps there is some random obscure issue set that could be worse, but I doubt it). Finding any card in this set that is truly centered is like finding a needle in a haystack. Even in high grade. Nearly every 8, 9, and 10 I've seen is still too OC for me.

4) PSA graders have no clue how to grade these cards. They are CONSTANTLY rejected as "minsize" due to ignorance on PSA's part. The factory cuts on these are often narrow, and the factory heights vary by more than 3/4"!! Especially card numbers 1-6, which make up the rightmost column of the uncut sheet. Every single copy of cards 1-6 (which includes 4 HOF RCs: Elgin Baylor RC, Attles RC, Bellamy RC, and Arizin RC) measures narrow. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Every copy that has ever been slabbed by PSA, and every copy they reject. That's just how the sheets were cut. Cards from the rightmost column are narrower than every other card in the set. Getting one through grading at PSA is simply a matter of luck. Did the grader measure it that day or not? I have a centered Arizin that PSA refuses to grade despite the fact that it was in a PSA 7 holder when I bought it (it deserves an 8.5).

Cliff notes: I wouldn't use 1961 Fleer basketball as a proxy for the rest of the market. It has its own set of rules.


These are the cards in my set (a few have been upgraded since the pics were taken).

...

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Leon

Those are phenominal. I am a centering nut too. I probably paid 1.5x - 2x comps for this Musial...and I love it. It's now in a CSG 1.5 holder, which I feel is the correct grade for it.

And of course I agree with the thought that great visual-appeal cards continue to do very well!

I love cards like this. Low grade, nice centering. I did the exact same thing you did when I acquired my Musial. Bought one that has great eye appeal and a low technical grade due to a small pinhole on the top border. I think I paid about 1.75x comps or so. It was in an SGC 1.5 holder when I bought it.

..

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think the cards you were looking for are an exception though. I consider myself an expert on 61 Fleer basketball. It's probably the set I know more about than any other set in any sport. It's a very special set. I am also a centering obsessed collector with clinically diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder. I'd wager good money that there isn't a single person on the planet who is more anal about their 61 Fleer set than I am. I upgrade every card in the set to a better-centered copy every chance I get. Pics of my set are below because YAY PICS!

Here are some fun facts:

1) I have never in my life encountered a truly 50/50 centered 1961 Fleer Jerry West RC. It just so happens to align on the sheet at the intersection of the most commonly miscut row and the 2nd most commonly miscut column. I have searched for years for one of these. I saw two that were close. I lost out on one and the other was overgraded and way overpriced (5x "comps"). Mine is centered L/R but off T/B.

2) A centered Wilt RC pops up maybe once every year or two. They're also super rare. A centered Elgin Baylor RC usually gets rejected by PSA. And I've only seen maybe 3 centered Oscar Robertson RCs ever. Mind you, I've searched this set weekly for years.

3) The entire set is hands down the most wildly miscut set that I'm aware of (perhaps there is some random obscure issue set that could be worse, but I doubt it). Finding any card in this set that is truly centered is like finding a needle in a haystack. Even in high grade. Nearly every 8, 9, and 10 I've seen is still too OC for me.

4) PSA graders have no clue how to grade these cards. They are CONSTANTLY rejected as "minsize" due to ignorance on PSA's part. The factory cuts on these are often narrow, and the factory heights vary by more than 3/4"!! Especially card numbers 1-6, which make up the rightmost column of the uncut sheet. Every single copy of cards 1-6 (which includes 4 HOF RCs: Elgin Baylor RC, Attles RC, Bellamy RC, and Arizin RC) measures narrow. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Every copy that has ever been slabbed by PSA, and every copy they reject. That's just how the sheets were cut. Cards from the rightmost column are narrower than every other card in the set. Getting one through grading at PSA is simply a matter of luck. Did the grader measure it that day or not? I have a centered Arizin that PSA refuses to grade despite the fact that it was in a PSA 7 holder when I bought it (it deserves an 8.5).

Cliff notes: I wouldn't use 1961 Fleer basketball as a proxy for the rest of the market. It has its own set of rules.


These are the cards in my set (a few have been upgraded since the pics were taken).

...

maybe not 50/50 but damn close

[Northviewcats]

As an eBay seller, I haven't noticed any decrease in sales in the last year. Sales have been pretty steady. I am not a big dealer, but I average between 60 to 80 sales per week. Almost all are vintage cards. I only sell buy-it-now and 60% of my sales are repeat buyers. I actually love the eBay platform. It is a safe and easy place to buy and sell cards.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

maybe not 50/50 but damn close

This is a really spectacular West RC. It might be the best one I've seen.

In my experience with this set, I suspect the only thing that probably held it back from an even higher grade is probably the tone of the white background. Some cards in this set get a more beige-ish look to them (which my West also has). It happens when they get soaked (warning, this set does not soak well!). It can also happen if they've been stored in a humid climate for a long time. Mine was the result of soaking it because I wanted to flatten it out. It's not a big difference, but it's noticeable when two cards are side-by-side.

[bmattioli]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I am also a centering obsessed collector with clinically diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder.

I would like to inquire about more information if you have the time to PM me any info on this misunderstood disease...

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by bmattioli

I would like to inquire about more information if you have the time to PM me any info on this misunderstood disease...

Sure, feel free to PM me. Happy to share my experiences with it. It manifests itself in all sorts of different ways in different people though.

A funny example for me is that when I was a teenager, I couldn't go to sleep without getting out of bed, walking over to the light switch, and flipping the lights on and off 3 times. Every night. For years. lol