Early Hall Discussion:

[packs]

I think Beltre is definite. Most likely Helton. I think Mauer gets in eventually but probably not this year.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I think Beltre is definite. Most likely Helton. I think Mauer gets in eventually but probably not this year.

This. I can't see Jones and i think Wagner is destined to fall short.

[G1911]

Helton is a lock, probably this year, with 72%.

Wagner is also a lock, with 68% and 2 years to go. Candidates that reach this level and fall short of the writers ballot are put in by a committee. The question is when, not if, Wagner gets in and if he actually deserves it.

With 4 years to go and 58% Jones is also probably destined for Cooperstown eventually, though I doubt next year.

Beltre will probably get in first ballot next year.

Mauer probably gets in via the writers but not first ballot.

[packs]

Wagner has one more year on the ballot after this one and I think he's doomed if he doesn't get in now. The next class will have CC and Ichiro on it as first ballots. If Helton doesn't get in this year, he'll pull a lot of votes next year. Same with Mauer. Might not be enough to go around.

It'll be interesting to see how things go for him. He jumped a lot last year with a weak ballot.

I'm not sure K-Rod is a HOFer either but it's interesting he gets such little support but didn't have all that lesser a career.

[Mike D.]

I love Hall of Fame talk! I think that Beltre is a lock in year one, and it'll be interesting to see how Mauer does. He could squeak in or take a few tries. I also think Chase Utley is a better candidate than many may realize. He won't make it year one, but it'll be interesting to see if any voters agree with me or not.

On the returning guys, Helton and Wagner both belong...be nice to see them get in this year. I don't see any other returning guys making it, but there are several deserving on the ballot.

Here are some write-ups I did on the players on the ballot and their rookie cards...

Adrian Beltre
Joe Mauer
Chase Utley
Todd Helton
Andruw Jones
Billy Wagner

[nolemmings]

Please allow me to “pump” (new term for me) my favorite Twin.
Joe Mauer played the majority of his games as a catcher during the first ten seasons of his career, from 2004-2013, at which time he met the minimum time needed to qualify for the Hall of Fame. IMO, he earned it then.

As a catcher, Mauer won three batting titles– only two other catchers in MLB history have won any. He batted .300 or better seven of those ten seasons-- once reaching .365-- and more than .290 in two others. During that time he was an All Star 6 times and won an MVP. He also won three gold gloves and led his league in fielding percentage for catchers three times (9th all-time). Back in that era when strikeouts were considered embarrassing and at some level shameful, Mauer walked more than he struck out six of those ten seasons, falling three short (walks vs. Ks) in two others and six short once. Mauer was a .323 hitter in 10 seasons as a catcher with an .823 OPS. One can only wonder what further numbers were reachable if not for the concussion, but I believe the ones just cited make him a HOFer anyway.

For those who don’t recall or did not know, the following is what happened to Joe, as recounted by sportswriter LaVelle Neal:
“On Aug. 19, 2013, Mauer took a foul to the mask off the bat of Mets first baseman Ike Davis. It was a career-altering moment for Mauer that also changed the course of Twins history. Mauer, like several catchers that season, landed on the seven-day concussion disabled list. One week wasn't enough for the symptoms to go away. Two weeks wasn't enough. Or a month. Mauer missed the remainder of the season and needed about two months following the season for the symptoms to finally leave. He was sensitive to light. He was forced to change rooms if one of his twin daughters, about 6 months old at the time, began to cry.

When he returned to spring training in 2014, he was a first baseman. Doctors concluded that Mauer had suffered a severe concussion, making him at risk for worse outcomes if he suffered more. This came after teammate, friend and fellow AL MVP Justin Morneau suffered a concussion in 2010 that also altered his career.”

I know there are other tales of woe for players who could claim "what if", but wanted to make clear that Joe Mauer's move to first base occurred after he had put up HOF stats and that he was one of the brightest of stars of his era--the antithesis of an accumulator.

[G1911]

If it was my ballot, I would immediately vote for:
Todd Helton
Adrian Beltre
Joe Mauer
Jeff Kent

I would also vote for, since they put in Ortiz and cannot logically keep the steroid line anymore:
Alex Rodriguez
Gary Sheffield

Utley, Wright and Beltran I'd have to examine closer to decide.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by G1911

Helton is a lock, probably this year, with 72%.

Wagner is also a lock, with 68% and 2 years to go. Candidates that reach this level and fall short of the writers ballot are put in by a committee. The question is when, not if, Wagner gets in and if he actually deserves it.

With 4 years to go and 58% Jones is also probably destined for Cooperstown eventually, though I doubt next year.

Beltre will probably get in first ballot next year.

Mauer probably gets in via the writers but not first ballot.

Beltre's first ballot is 01/2024, technically next year, but next ballot for purposes of this discussion.



and, after, two of the three Cuban players I always thought deserved it, got it in (Oliva & Minoso), I hope Luis Tiant, Jr. gets in before he's gone...he may just light up during his acceptance speech...that would be excellent!!
.

[butchie_t]

Todd Helton and after that whoever else.

I may be a bit biased too.

Butch T.

[toothcutter]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This. I can't see Jones and i think Wagner is destined to fall short.

Torally disagree peter. Not really sure how your getting there.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Probably wrong. Just feel there's enough resistance to relief pitchers that he may have hit a plateau and won't win over enough holdouts, and his election would open the floodgates as there are a number of guys whose stats are or will end up fairly comparable.

[G1911]

I think Wagner is a poor candidate, but with 68% of the vote the odds he never gets in are tiny. Has any player ever hit 2/3 of the vote and then failed to eventually be inducted?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

I think Wagner is a poor candidate, but with 68% of the vote the odds he never gets in are tiny. Has any player ever hit 2/3 of the vote and then failed to eventually be inducted?

Clemens may never get in.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Clemens may never get in.

Hadn't thought about him and Bonds. I would categorize them separately, but did not think of that before my statement, so too late now.