1952T Mantle price drops

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The majority of the variance in hammer prices can be explained by the eye appeal.

That said, there has definitely been a significant shift in the market ever since the terrorist attack in Israel. People are afraid of a much larger conflict brewing.

Maybe generally true, but in this case it was the exact card in question that sold for 850K less, so eye appeal can't be the explanation.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Maybe generally true, but in this case it was the exact card in question that sold for 850K less, so eye appeal can't be the explanation.

Agree. Plus, on the PSA 2 comps, there are enough sales to show that prices are falling/have fallen (quite a bit) across the board, and it can’t all be eye appeal with so many examples - 12 since April 2022, including Scott’s Collector Connection sale (great result Scott).

Eye appeal matters, a lot especially with these commodity cards (more common). But that’s not the answer here. Values have fallen

[Republicaninmass]

A PSA 3....ok when I was building my set, for an exception example I wanted to pay 10k, and the card was selling just a little higher than that. Still waiting for "my price" even with inflation, what significantly has happened in the last decade for this card to magically "go up" 8-10x? Soley, and based on the sentiment here, more people thinking it will just go up!

[Leon]

The more money a card costs the more it can go down. (DUH)..... And a 52 Mantle isn't rare, as has been stated.

My most expensive cards can go down and it's not going to be a 5 or 6 figure drop. I play at the quarter tables.They can stll be fun and entertaining, for us without the large stacks of chips .

[ullmandds]

i might be a 52 topps mantle buyer if lower grades could once again be had for around 5k. i would not be shocked?

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i might be a 52 topps mantle buyer if lower grades could once again be had for around 5k. i would not be shocked?

Pete, I think the boat has left the pier for that one.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i might be a 52 topps mantle buyer if lower grades could once again be had for around 5k. i would not be shocked?

Not happening IMO. Not even close.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i might be a 52 topps mantle buyer if lower grades could once again be had for around 5k. i would not be shocked?

While most people around here don’t think this is possible, I’m more on the side that anything is possible. Given enough economic pain and trouble, then stuff we don’t currently view as possible can suddenly become reality.

As humans, we’re just too focused on the present situation to imagine that crazy stuff could happen that greatly deviates from the current glide path. And even less likely to go onto a public chat board and suggest that it could really happen.

So don’t lose hope just yet! At the same time, hopefully you don’t feel too bummed if it never happens, or if you have to wait a long time for it to get here.

[Republicaninmass]

There isn't a whole new group of die hard collectors looking to add a 1952 topps mantle. It took generations to go from 1k to 5k card in low grade, it just isn't possible to go up 10x in 10 years and stay there. Soon as the flippers panic, watch out below. A psa 8 for 100-150k is still "a lot of money" less than 10 years ago

[TUM301]

Originally Posted by Leon

The more money a card costs the more it can go down. (DUH)..... And a 52 Mantle isn't rare, as has been stated.

My most expensive cards can go down and it's not going to be a 5 or 6 figure drop. I play at the quarter tables.They can stll be fun and entertaining, for us without the large stacks of chips .

Leon is that Coach Harbaugh and the rest of the Mich. Staff ?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Maybe generally true, but in this case it was the exact card in question that sold for 850K less, so eye appeal can't be the explanation.

Yes, but that sale was from October 2021, during the height of the covid boom. A lot of cards way oversold at that time. Recent PSA 8 comps have been much lower. The last one sold for less than a million. I probably would've guessed this one would close at $1.3M or $1.4M with its eye appeal, so it undersold my expectations, but not by a huge margin. I don't think anyone was expecting another $2M PSA 8 sale.

[Snowman]

It seems as though the card market is acting rather irrationally at the moment. I've been getting slaughtered on my consignments this month. Doing about 60% of my expectations, and I'm usually not off by more than about 10%. Something has definitely changed. And it's not just the modern market. Higher end and mid range vintage are both experiencing some significant downward pressures this month.

I really do wonder if the war in Israel/Palestine is having a significant effect on the card market.

[GeoPoto]

I think the rise in interest rates from 4% to 5% in little more than a month has provided a tipping point that is finally convincing most people that interest rates are going to be "higher longer". It is much harder to rationalize "investing" in cards when bank deposits reliably pay significant interest.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by GeoPoto

I think the rise in interest rates from 4% to 5% in little more than a month has provided a tipping point that is finally convincing most people that interest rates are going to be "higher longer". It is much harder to rationalize "investing" in cards when bank deposits reliably pay significant interest.

Yup. When 'safe' yields soar, everything else looks less attractive. A million bucks yielding $50K in income is a whole lot more enticing than sitting on a Mantle until the next price cycle.

[Johnny630]

The knife could still have further to fall, the further it goes the deeper it cuts. The issue is what is the true value of these cards ? To me the dust hasn’t settle yet. It will in time....

[DocScoot]

Separate from the short terms ups or downs, how many of you worry about the longer term prices given the quite disturbing downward trend in the popularity of baseball in general? Will the next generation of collectors want any of these cards? It's hard for me to look at the trend in World Series viewership numbers and not get depressed. Game 2 was down to around 8 million viewers, less than half of a mediocre regular season NFL game. I realize with vastly different numbers of games per season it's not apples to apples, but still...

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by DocScoot

Separate from the short terms ups or downs, how many of you worry about the longer term prices given the quite disturbing downward trend in the popularity of baseball in general? Will the next generation of collectors want any of these cards? It's hard for me to look at the trend in World Series viewership numbers and not get depressed. Game 2 was down to around 8 million viewers, less than half of a mediocre regular season NFL game. I realize with vastly different numbers of games per season it's not apples to apples, but still...

Yes because a lot of these guys don’t even like baseball; they like the financial aspect the cards can bring.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by DocScoot

Separate from the short terms ups or downs, how many of you worry about the longer term prices given the quite disturbing downward trend in the popularity of baseball in general? Will the next generation of collectors want any of these cards? It's hard for me to look at the trend in World Series viewership numbers and not get depressed. Game 2 was down to around 8 million viewers, less than half of a mediocre regular season NFL game. I realize with vastly different numbers of games per season it's not apples to apples, but still...

I think it's likely that the viewership numbers are down because of the unlikely, smaller-market teams in the WS, not because baseball's popularity is fading. If it was Yankees-Dodgers, you'd have to think the numbers would be through the roof.

[jsfriedm]

I blame John Smoltz. Why does anyone think he is the one the country wants to listen to in the most important games?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by DocScoot

Separate from the short terms ups or downs, how many of you worry about the longer term prices given the quite disturbing downward trend in the popularity of baseball in general? Will the next generation of collectors want any of these cards? It's hard for me to look at the trend in World Series viewership numbers and not get depressed. Game 2 was down to around 8 million viewers, less than half of a mediocre regular season NFL game. I realize with vastly different numbers of games per season it's not apples to apples, but still...

Baseball set attendance records this year. You wouldn’t know from the old men complaining on this board though.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Baseball set attendance records this year. You wouldn’t know from the old men complaining on this board though.

Is this data wrong? Attendance seems to have receded over time. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...lb-since-2006/

[DocScoot]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Baseball set attendance records this year. You wouldn’t know from the old men complaining on this board though.

Am I an old man on the forum? I'm curious how old you think I am, and also why you would even think that's relevant to the data which is pretty easily quantified and not exactly subjective?

Overall viewership is drastically down from where it peaked in the 70s when baseball was still the most popular sport in the country. Now it's barely top three. Attendance numbers are up this year only compared to the pandemic years, and are down compared with every year from 2004 through 2017. But that's just a measure of local fanbases (plus urban population growth), not overall popularity of the sport which I would guess will be a better indicator of the collector market moving forward. That last part's just an opinion, but the overall stats on the declining popularity of baseball are just facts, like it or not.

[Jdoggs]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Yes, but that sale was from October 2021, during the height of the covid boom. A lot of cards way oversold at that time. Recent PSA 8 comps have been much lower. The last one sold for less than a million. I probably would've guessed this one would close at $1.3M or $1.4M with its eye appeal, so it undersold my expectations, but not by a huge margin. I don't think anyone was expecting another $2M PSA 8 sale.

Which auction house was the last 52 topps mantle psa 8 which sold for under a million?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Jdoggs

Which auction house was the last 52 topps mantle psa 8 which sold for under a million?

Goldin. Just last month.

..