REA observations

[molenick]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Same way I felt about the 1933 Gehrig #160 and the N28 Kelly - nice cards, but I can be patient and expect them to go even lower.

Are we seeing the card market evolving from FOMO to FOJI (fear of joining in)? Not so much for the rarest cards but for cards that we expect to see again in another auction in the near future.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by molenick

Are we seeing the card market evolving from FOMO to FOJI (fear of joining in)? Not so much for the rarest cards but for cards that we expect to see again in another auction in the near future.

I'm still in, it just seems like we're at a point in time where the potential benefits of patience outweigh the risks.

[molenick]

Yeah, I think most of us are still in. I just couldn't think of a good acronym.

But maybe we are on the cusp of changing from "I better buy it now because it will cost more later" to "I'd rather take my chances and see if I can get it for less later".

I am not talking about cards that only show up once in a blue moon...it's more for cards that we can expect to see in another auction in the near future (and if not exactly the same card, one in a similar condition).

[Exhibitman]

Sounds about right to me, Michael. I was talking about that exact thing with a longtime board member/dealer yesterday. Mainstream stuff is softening. Oddball stuff is hit and miss, same as ever. Rare stuff is rare stuff: when it comes up, the right buyers will pay up, same as ever.

I think we are for sure seeing some sanity creep back into the market for abundant mainstream cards, even pre-war. That said, I don't see the equilibrium prices as too far off simply because there are so many people waiting to get in on bigger names and cards whose price consciousness only goes back a decade or less and who don't have the deep benches that longtime collectors have. If a low-grade Goudey Ruth slips by 30%-50%, many of those buyers will be excited to get in and get their first card, even if it is still a multiple of what it was a decade ago. My perspective is similarly flawed by my time collecting: what I think of cheap hasn't been that for a very long time.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Sounds about right to me, Michael. I was talking about that exact thing with a longtime board member/dealer yesterday. Mainstream stuff is softening. Oddball stuff is hit and miss, same as ever. Rare stuff is rare stuff: when it comes up, the right buyers will pay up, same as ever. I think we are for sure seeing some sanity creep back into the market for abundant high grade mainstream cards, even pre-war.

Maybe we are seeing more dicscerning collectors? High eye appeal, regardless of grade, keeps doing well. The middle of the road and lower eye appeal specimens, are soft. Then there's the stuff that is rare, and as you said, it's still hit and miss.
.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Sounds about right to me, Michael. I was talking about that exact thing with a longtime board member/dealer yesterday. Mainstream stuff is softening. Oddball stuff is hit and miss, same as ever. Rare stuff is rare stuff: when it comes up, the right buyers will pay up, same as ever.

I think we are for sure seeing some sanity creep back into the market for abundant mainstream cards, even pre-war. That said, I don't see the equilibrium prices as too far off simply because there are so many people waiting to get in on bigger names and cards whose price consciousness only goes back a decade or less and who don't have the deep benches that longtime collectors have. If a low-grade Goudey Ruth slips by 30%-50%, many of those buyers will be excited to get in and get their first card, even if it is still a multiple of what it was a decade ago. My perspective is similarly flawed by my time collecting: what I think of cheap hasn't been that for a very long time.

The good news/bad news is that percentages are much more powerful on the way down. A piece that jumps 100% but then later falls 50% is right back where it started. So percentage-wise, a little bit goes a long way on the way down.

Math!!

[Exhibitman]

Yep, math is an unforgiving mistress. But a piece that jumps 500% and falls 50% is still 2.5x the previous price. A PSA 8 Dr. J RC was $800 before the rise, peaked at $9,000, and has fallen back to about $2,000. Even if you got in at $800 and didn't sell into the bubble, that's still a very nice ROI in four years.

[Natswin2019]

I know t206s have already been talked about but I bid on 3 this auction and only won 1. All 3 were common players with common backs, 2 in a PSA 3 and 1 in an sgc 3.5. The weird thing about it was the 2 psa cards sold for 250$ each and well over 100$ more than recent comps while the SGC 3.5 that I won didnt even sell for a 100$. Probably doesnt mean anything but I thought it was weird to have very comparable cards in both grade and eye appeal sell for such a difference.

[lampertb]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

My perspective is similarly flawed by my time collecting: what I think of cheap hasn't been that for a very long time.

Ditto