Hypothetical Question, could Ruth hit modern pitching

[rhettyeakley]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

In 1930 the world record for the mile was 4:10. It's now 3:43. Over the same time the shot put record has gone from 16+ meters to 23+ meters.

Weight training is far more advanced today than it was then and that is obviously true. Most workouts were calisthenics at the time and that combined with the unnatural things also done by those in strength sports has aided in a lot of the increase in the shotput record.those same things don’t help in all sports but there are obvious sports where the sports themselves hardly resemble the sport played 100 years ago or even 50 years ago…baseball is not that sport.

The mile time difference has a lot more to do with equipment and track conditions than you are giving it credit for but i think you know that

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

Weight training is far more advanced today than it was then and that is obviously true. Most workouts were calisthenics at the time and that combined with the unnatural things also done by those in strength sports has aided in a lot of the increase in the shotput record.those same things don’t help in all sports but there are obvious sports where the sports themselves hardly resemble the sport played 100 years ago or even 50 years ago…baseball is not that sport.

The mile time difference has a lot more to do with equipment and track conditions than you are giving it credit for but i think you know that

It feels to me like the notion that baseball is somehow unique and exempt from the patterns we see in other sports is a romantic one. Just my opinion. Athletes get better over time and I don't see baseball as an exception.

[rhettyeakley]

These were The tracks that Jesse Owens and all those before the 1960’s ran on…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinder_track

These were his shoes, the track and the [lack of] starting blocks(see attached images)

I get that you hold the eternal contrarian POV Peter but you are being silly comparing Jesse Owens times directly to a modern High Schooler.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

These were The tracks that Jesse Owens and all those before the 1960’s ran on…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinder_track

These were his shoes, the track and the [lack of] starting blocks(see attached images)

I get that you hold the eternal contrarian POV Peter but you are being silly comparing Jesse Owens times directly to a modern High Schooler.

I think this is what you are referring to

https://everything-everywhere.com/je...20in%20history.

All of these things were actually put into a test that was run by the CBC in Canada. They got Olympic sprinter Andre De Grasse to run under similar conditions as Jesse Owens. De Grasse was a bronze medalist at the 2016 Olympics in the 100m

How fast did he run under these conditions? He ran the 100m in 11 seconds,

That is .8 seconds slower than Jesse Owens personal best.

[71buc]

The elite athletes born in any generation could compete in every generation with all things being equal. If you plucked Ruth or Cobb from their eras and dropped them in a game today they would be average at best. If they were born in 1995 and provided with the same training, nutrition, technology, and opportunity they would absolutely be stars. I think you can say that in virtually every sport. Baseball is an international game now. The pool of talent from which to draw from is much larger. Due to that I believe many of the role players and other average players from that era would not make major league rosters. Foxx “The Beast” was 6’ 195lbs. Todays average player is 6’2” 207.

I always thought it was a more entertaining question to pick a player like Griffey Jr., Aaron Judge, Rickey Henderson, Randy Johnson, or Ohtani and drop them via Time Machine in 1927 and watch them compete.

[jsfriedm]

From Joe Posnanski's Baseball 100 on The Athletic https://theathletic.com/1708673/2020...lter-johnson/:

"How fast did Johnson actually throw? Let’s go down that rabbit hole for a minute, even though we can’t know for sure. Johnson always said that his ability to throw hard was just natural. “From the time I held a ball, it settled in the palm of my right hand as though it belonged there,” he said.

And while we can’t tell you exactly how fast the ball went, we do have a clue. Johnson was the first pitcher to have his fastball’s speed measured. True, it was measured by an archaic (and ingenious) apparatus developed by the Remington Arms Company. But it’s something. Remington had developed the machine to time the speed of bullets. Johnson’s fastball seemed the obvious next thing.

Johnson and another pitcher, Nap Rucker, showed up in a large room at the Remington lab in Connecticut. The scientists had him stand 60 feet, 6 inches away and throw his fastball through a mesh square. The ball would brush through the mesh, triggering the clock. Then, 15 feet later, the ball would slam into a metal plate, stopping the clock. Johnson’s fastball covered that distance in .1229 seconds, which means that it traveled 122 feet per second.*

*Rucker topped out at 113 feet per second.

This became a pretty famous measurement of the time: 122 feet per second! That’s fast! As newspapers reported in the day, “The Twentieth Century Limited, flying at a mile a minute gait over the rails, makes only 88 feet per second!” He threw it faster than a train!

This was not the reason Johnson was called Big Train, by the way. We’ll get to that.

What is 122 feet per second as we would understand it now?

It is 83.2 miles per hour.

It’s OK to feel let down. But the story isn’t over yet.

First, there’s the measurement point. As mentioned above when talking about how fast Feller and Ryan really threw, the speed of today’s pitchers is measured out of the hand. Feller’s pitch was measured as it crossed the plate. But Johnson’s pitch was measured seven and a half feet after it crossed the plate.

So, that requires a major adjustment. The “Fastball” physicists did the calculations and found that today Walter Johnson’s pitch would actually be measured at 94 mph or so.

That’s obviously very fast, though it certainly would not make anyone in today’s game back away. But there’s more: Johnson threw the ball with a shirt and tie on. He did not throw off of a mound. And most of all, he did not throw as hard as he could because he was trying to guide his pitches through the target. It was an awkward thing, and it took him numerous tries to get it right.

“He didn’t throw full speed or anything close,” Rucker said after the experiment. “If he had, he would have thrown over 150 feet per second.”

For the record, 150 feet per second is more than 102 mph. In church clothes. On flat ground."

[Yoda]

I was thinking of Babe Herman who swung a mighty bat but had difficulty making a simple PO. He would have been perfect for the DH rule.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

These questions bother me more than they should. Humans have NOT evolved in the 5 or so generations from 1900 to today. The differences are in nutrition, health, training etc.

So could 1927 Babe Ruth hit today's pitching? Maybe.

But could Babe Ruth born in 1995 and able to avail himself of everything players today have at their disposal hit today's pitching. Of freaking course he could.

[JollyElm]

JurassicParkGoldblumBabeRuth.jpg

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

These questions bother me more than they should. Humans have NOT evolved in the 5 or so generations from 1900 to today. The differences are in nutrition, health, training etc.

So could 1927 Babe Ruth hit today's pitching? Maybe.

But could Babe Ruth born in 1995 and able to avail himself of everything players today have at their disposal hit today's pitching. Of freaking course he could.

"Nutrition, health, training etc." are way, way overrated. These guys stub their toe or get a blister, and they go on the IL, all the while collecting millions upon millions of dollars.

I will leave this discussion with this, and some of you aren't going to like it.

You guys are obviously highly, highly educated and successful in life by any measure. How else could you afford the very expensive cards we all love?

Why, then, this weird fixation on the pitching in the 1920s and 30s as crazily inferior, while trying to justify the pitching of today?

Do you realize how you make yourselves sound in doing this?

Let me reiterate - I played high school and American Legion baseball, and I know how fast the pitching was. I am almost 66 years old. There is a huge outdoor recreation area/amusement park maybe 5 miles from where I live that has go-karts, mini golf, driving range and, among other things, very sophisticated baseball batting cages that ALL the high school teams around here regularly utilize. They have pee wee, junior high, high school, minor and major. As a form of exercise and stress relief, I regularly use the high school cage, 78 mph. Minor is 84, and major is 90. I can hit 78 even now at 66, and I'm just some schmo. I can occasionally foul one or two off in the minor cage. The safety monitors won't even allow me into major.

Please, please, PLEASE...for the love of God...stop saying that the MAJOR LEAGUE pitching in the 1920s and 30s and 40s and 50s was 70/80 mph.

I break out in laughter when you write that insanely dumb stuff. You truly have no realization as to what you're saying, how incredibly dumb it sounds. I wasn't around, I don't know, but with a grand total of 16 teams in all the major leagues, and after hearing that Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Bob Feller, and on and on and on, when they bore down the ball made a certain "zzzzzz" noise as it went by. That's the heat, folks. That's what it sounds like. 70/80 mph? That insults my intelligence.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by jingram058

Please, please, PLEASE...for the love of God...stop saying that the MAJOR LEAGUE pitching in the 1920s and 30s and 40s and 50s was 70/80 mph.

I break out in laughter when you write that insanely dumb stuff. You truly have no realization as to what you're saying, how incredibly dumb it sounds. I wasn't around, I don't know, but with a grand total of 16 teams in all the major leagues, and after hearing that Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Bob Feller, and on and on and on, when they bore down the ball made a certain "zzzzzz" noise as it went by. That's the heat, folks. That's what it sounds like. 70/80 mph? That insults my intelligence.

I think you're not quite understanding my claim, or perhaps I didn't state it clearly enough rather. I'm not saying that the best arms during that era were only capable of pitches in the 70-80 mph range. I'm claiming that the MEDIAN pitch speed that these hitters saw was likely in the high 70s, low 80s. It's really not that much of a stretch. Median pitch speeds mean half the balls they faced were above that speed, and half were below. This would include fastballs and off-speed pitches. As a point of comparison, even the median fastball when Ken Griffey Jr. was called up in 1989 was about 87 mph. That's 1989. So the median pitch speed (fastballs & off-speed pitches) was certainly lower than that. Likely low 80s. Saying that the median pitching speeds from the 1920s was likely in the high 70s isn't exactly a stretch and it's almost certainly true.

You seem more interested in what the top speeds that the best pitchers were capable of, which is a different question. I think there were likely several guys throwing mid to high 80s fastballs, with a few elite arms like Walter Johnson touching low 90s. But none of these guys were capable of 100 mph. Sorry, but that simply wasn't happening back then. 50 oz bats would not have been used by anyone if they were facing 100 mph pitching. It's simply not possible for anyone to turn on pitches that fast with lumber that heavy.

Originally Posted by jingram058

...As a form of exercise and stress relief, I regularly use the high school cage, 78 mph. Minor is 84, and major is 90. I can hit 78 even now at 66, and I'm just some schmo. I can occasionally foul one or two off in the minor cage. The safety monitors won't even allow me into major.

I think this is an interesting note you've made here. You can hit 78 mph pitching with some sort of relative consistency, but dial that up by just 6 mph and what previously had been a relatively easy, or at least achievable, task has now become so challenging that you can barely get a foul tip on the ball at those speeds. A few mph really does make all the difference in the world at the plate. This is precisely what this debate is all about. We know these hitters from the 1920s were hitting slower pitching. Hell, just from the time Griffey was called up in 1989 to what hitters are facing today on average, the median fastball has gone up by more than 6 mph. That's a remarkable jump. And the pitchers from the 1920s to 1989 were even a bigger jump than that. The median fastball today is without question AT LEAST 10-12 mph faster than it was in the 1920s. And a difference of 10-12 mph is, as you've noted, significant enough for someone capable of hitting 78 mph pitching to not even be allowed in the cage by the safety personnel at your local batting cage. That's how big of a difference the pitching was that these guys were facing in the 1920s vs what guys are facing today. It's a completely different game.

Could some of the best hitters from that era have adjusted to faster pitching and still been star players? Sure, absolutely. Some of them would. But some of them also wouldn't. Which players could and which players couldn't is anyone's guess. But I don't think it's as simple as just rank ordering the players and saying all the best ones would have still been great. It's not a linear transition. Some guys can just absolutely destroy 91 mph pitching, but they can't hit 100 mph. This is why top prospects fail so often. More so than in any other sport.

And since I like data, here's a plot of median fastball speeds from 2002 to 2019.
...

[Carter08]

The current thinking in baseball seems to be roll through as many pitchers as you need in a game to make sure the team is always pitching well into the 90s. The increased torque required for that seems to result in increased injuries and surgeries. Personal observation but I would guess it’s supported somewhere. I imagine many great hitters of the past would be able to catch up to the speed with training but in their day they most likely never had to think about facing a 100mph pitch, much less a constant barrage of them.

[Snowman]

I forgot to address the comments earlier about record breaking being more a function of technology and environmental factors than evolutionary factors. This is certainly true as well, though the degree to which this applies varies greatly by sport.

Here's an interesting TED talk on the topic

https://youtu.be/8COaMKbNrX0?si=Dzvz-03MvT086MUS

[eliotdeutsch]

Love this Ted talk on the subject. Just posted it and saw you had as well.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Carter08

The current thinking in baseball seems to be roll through as many pitchers as you need in a game to make sure the team is always pitching well into the 90s. The increased torque required for that seems to result in increased injuries and surgeries. Personal observation but I would guess it’s supported somewhere. I imagine many great hitters of the past would be able to catch up to the speed with training but in their day they most likely never had to think about facing a 100mph pitch, much less a constant barrage of them.

Right. Even assuming some top pitchers from the 20s could hit the low 90s, there's no chance they were throwing consistently in the 90s for 9 innings every 4th day. I don't care how manly they were compared to today's wimps.

Pedro famously said to wake up the Bambino so he could drill him in the ass, but if he had thought about it he probably would have said so he could strike him out.

[robw1959]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Right. Even assuming some top pitchers from the 20s could hit the low 90s, there's no chance they were throwing consistently in the 90s for 9 innings every 4th day. I don't care how manly they were compared to today's wimps.

Pedro famously said to wake up the Bambino so he could drill him in the ass, but if he had thought about it he probably would have said so he could strike him out.

This is so silly. Pitchers in the 1960s and '70s were doing this REGULARLY throughout the course of any given season. Jim Palmer, for example, pitched 25 complete games one year. This year, the entire American League starting pitcher staff only combined for 22.

Oh, and Pedro would get the same wakeup call pitching to Ruth that Satchel Paige got when his fastball in 1935 was turned into a 450+ foot blast over the centerfield fence.

[robw1959]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think you're not quite understanding my claim, or perhaps I didn't state it clearly enough rather. I'm not saying that the best arms during that era were only capable of pitches in the 70-80 mph range. I'm claiming that the MEDIAN pitch speed that these hitters saw was likely in the high 70s, low 80s. It's really not that much of a stretch. Median pitch speeds mean half the balls they faced were above that speed, and half were below. This would include fastballs and off-speed pitches. As a point of comparison, even the median fastball when Ken Griffey Jr. was called up in 1989 was about 87 mph. That's 1989. So the median pitch speed (fastballs & off-speed pitches) was certainly lower than that. Likely low 80s. Saying that the median pitching speeds from the 1920s was likely in the high 70s isn't exactly a stretch and it's almost certainly true.

You seem more interested in what the top speeds that the best pitchers were capable of, which is a different question. I think there were likely several guys throwing mid to high 80s fastballs, with a few elite arms like Walter Johnson touching low 90s. But none of these guys were capable of 100 mph. Sorry, but that simply wasn't happening back then. 50 oz bats would not have been used by anyone if they were facing 100 mph pitching. It's simply not possible for anyone to turn on pitches that fast with lumber that heavy.




I think this is an interesting note you've made here. You can hit 78 mph pitching with some sort of relative consistency, but dial that up by just 6 mph and what previously had been a relatively easy, or at least achievable, task has now become so challenging that you can barely get a foul tip on the ball at those speeds. A few mph really does make all the difference in the world at the plate. This is precisely what this debate is all about. We know these hitters from the 1920s were hitting slower pitching. Hell, just from the time Griffey was called up in 1989 to what hitters are facing today on average, the median fastball has gone up by more than 6 mph. That's a remarkable jump. And the pitchers from the 1920s to 1989 were even a bigger jump than that. The median fastball today is without question AT LEAST 10-12 mph faster than it was in the 1920s. And a difference of 10-12 mph is, as you've noted, significant enough for someone capable of hitting 78 mph pitching to not even be allowed in the cage by the safety personnel at your local batting cage. That's how big of a difference the pitching was that these guys were facing in the 1920s vs what guys are facing today. It's a completely different game.

Could some of the best hitters from that era have adjusted to faster pitching and still been star players? Sure, absolutely. Some of them would. But some of them also wouldn't. Which players could and which players couldn't is anyone's guess. But I don't think it's as simple as just rank ordering the players and saying all the best ones would have still been great. It's not a linear transition. Some guys can just absolutely destroy 91 mph pitching, but they can't hit 100 mph. This is why top prospects fail so often. More so than in any other sport.

And since I like data, here's a plot of median fastball speeds from 2002 to 2019.
...

Later in his career, Ruth, knowing he needed a timing edge against fastballs, switched to a much lighter bat and got even better homerun results than what he got with the big stick.