Players not yet eligible for the HOF

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

What was Koufax's WAR 7?

Koufax' WAR7 was 46, just behind Carl Hubbel, Max Scherzer and Jim Palmer and ahead of Don Drysdale, Mike Mussina, Nolan Ryan and many other HOFers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Koufax' WAR7 was 46, just behind Carl Hubbel, Max Scherzer and Jim Palmer and ahead of Don Drysdale, Mike Mussina, Nolan Ryan and many other HOFers.

And he ranks 95th by JAWS overall. I don't think people will ever agree how to value guys who had short but very high peaks.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And he ranks 95th by JAWS overall. I don't think people will ever agree how to value guys who had short but very high peaks.

Koufax ranks ahead of 15 HOF pitchers in JAWS.

Mattingly ranks ahead of 2 HOF 1B in JAWS--Jim Bottomley and George Kelly (arguably the worst member of the HOF).

And to compare Koufax's 5 straight ERA titles and 3 triple crowns to anything accomplished by Mattingly is a stretch at best.

[packs]

Why do you think Hernandez was so ignored during his election years then? He never received more than 10.8% of the vote in any of his 9 years on the ballot.

Just for comparisons sake, Mattingly was on the ballot for 15 years, peaking at 28.2% and recorded vote totals above Hernandez's max of 10.8% in all but 3 of his seasons on the ballot.

What did everyone else see in Mattingly?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

Why do you think Hernandez was so ignored during his election years then? He never received more than 10.8% of the vote in any of his 9 years on the ballot.

Just for comparisons sake, Mattingly was on the ballot for 15 years, peaking at 28.2% and recorded vote totals above Hernandez's max of 10.8% in all but 3 of his seasons on the ballot.

What did everyone else see in Mattingly?

Because WAR didn't exist then, and that's the only statistic in which Hernandez looks anything like a HOFer.

[packs]

Would you then say it was pretty clear to everyone who the better players was?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

Would you then say it was pretty clear to everyone who the better players was?

I think it was pretty clear who was considered better in the 1980's and 1990's, but that doesn't make it true and that doesn't mean either or both is HOF deserving.

Personally I would vote for neither. 127 and 128 OPS+ is good, but it's not really great for a 1B. Neither has any milestones or particularly HOF tier counting stats; rates are good but not exactly overlooked when the barrier is HOF level 1B performance. The defense argument for Hernandez is absurd; there are a tiny amount of players in the HOF for defense. 1B defense is not that valuable. Hernandez is very similar to Olerud except Hernandez has more fans and so every HOF thread becomes about Hernandez and Mattingly even if they don't meet the criteria of the thread .

[nat]

Any case for Keith Hernandez for the hall will be, and should be, controversial, because he's a marginal candidate, and marginal candidates are, almost by definition, controversial. He's tied for 187th in career WAR, surrounded by lower-tier hall of famers, and good non-hall of famers. He's exactly tied with Dazzy Vance, and right around the same level as Bobby Abreu, Vlad Guerrero, Jim Edmonds, and Zach Wheat. Is Zach Wheat a deserving hall of famers? My answer is: sure, but if they had left him out I wouldn't have missed any sleep over it. (Or probably even have noticed.) That's Hernandez' company. Guys on the borderline of the hall, in both directions, who pretty much can't (because they're borderline) have strong arguments either in their favor or against them.

Insofar as Hernandez does have a case, defense is an essential part of it. Gold gloves are a poor measure of defense, as the recently cited Palmeiro GG illustrates. The statistic you want to use to measure defense is Rfield. Hernandez has a career score of 117, meaning that he saved 117 runs more than an average first baseman. Mattingley has a career Rfield of 33. Now, before we get carried away, let's remember that these guys play first base. And while defense is important no matter where you play, there are only so many opportunities for first basemen to make important plays. (Ozzie Smith's number, for comparison, is 239.) Still, 117 runs saved is very good. It's a little below Omar Vizquel (who was, of course, a shortstop).

Baseball-Reference doesn't seem to have career leaderboards for Rfield, but they do have Total Zone, which is the next best thing. And Hernandez is the all-time leader in Total Zone Runs Saved for first basemen. (N.B. this statistic only goes back to 1953, the data it's based on wasn't collected before that time.) Todd Helton is #2, 13 runs behind. Don Mattingley is 31st. Good, but not an all-time leader.

(Technical note: all first basemen will look terrible by dWAR, because dWAR contains a positional adjustment. Basically, they get penalized for playing a position that it's relatively easy to fill. Because of the positional adjustment, the leaderboard for dWAR is very heavy on shortstops and has no first basemen.)