2021 Exit Strategy

[the-illini]

Originally Posted by notfast

I’m going to come off as a huge dick but that’s OK.

No, it’s really not ok.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Phil's situation as he describes it is one in which he cannot take risks. That changes the analysis completely in my view. If you can afford the downside risk, sure there are collectibles that are potentially great investments. And they are fine to own in a diverse portfolio. I hope I own some myself. But someone with no reserves on which to live should not be in collectibles exclusively or even to any significant extent and maybe not at all. The name of the game for Phil should be safety.

[Yoda]

Phil, so sorry to hear about your situation. If I was you I would sell off all your 50's RC and amass some capital that would produce income in a safe investment, money market, CDs etc. Your other cards you could sell at your leisure when the opportunity strikes. Good luck.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Phil's situation as he describes it is one in which he cannot take risks. That changes the analysis completely in my view. If you can afford the downside risk, sure there are collectibles that are potentially great investments. And they are fine to own in a diverse portfolio. I hope I own some myself. But someone with no reserves on which to live should not be in collectibles exclusively or even to any significant extent and maybe not at all. The name of the game for Phil should be safety.

It seems one of the early sentences in the original post has been forgotten: "A little background, I sold off my Negro League baseball memorabilia collection along with a smaller comic book collection back in 2021 at the peak of the market, of course, realizing strong prices for most all of those items."

So, apparently the OP built a collection, sold it at or near the very top of the market, and now is looking at having to give back some of those profits. My point is, considering all, he's probably still in pretty decent shape overall. So that's a good thing.

If the OP did an analysis of how much money is needed over the next 7 or 10 year timeframe, factoring in some anticipated inflation, then looked at how much his current collection could realize if sold tomorrow (and put into T-bills or CDs,) it would seem that would be the sensible, and non-exciting, thing to do.

I've found building a 1962 Post Cereal baseball set has been a lot of fun, and it's very budget-friendly. Once in awhile I'll pick up a T-202 common. So the OP could still participate in the hobby as a collector, just not as a serious investor.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Mark, I think he spent what he took in on cards, because elsewhere he offers a computation on what percentage of his cards he will need to sell each year to generate the income he needs to live on. He doesn't mention having anything else put aside for that purpose, either cash or other investments.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Mark, I think he spent what he took in on cards, because elsewhere he offers a computation on what percentage of his cards he will need to sell each year to generate the income he needs to live on. He doesn't mention having anything else put aside for that purpose, either cash or other investments.

Right. So if he spent what he took in on cards (which he sold at the top of the market) and now sells them for maybe 50% what he paid, he's in decent shape. If your collection goes from $100 to $200 then you sell and re-buy stuff which you then have to sell at 50%, you end up with your $100 back. Roughly.

Then we are both suggesting he puts that dough into a conservative cash-based, interest bearing savings account.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Right. So if he spent what he took in on cards (which he sold at the top of the market) and now sells them for maybe 50% what he paid, he's in decent shape. If your collection goes from $100 to $200 then you sell and re-buy stuff which you then have to sell at 50%, you end up with your $100 back. Roughly.

Then we are both suggesting he puts that dough into a conservative cash-based, interest bearing savings account.

Agree, his best course is to get all the way or mostly out of cards and into a conservative vehicle. But I don't think he's listening, he's just fine tuning which cards to sell first. You can't make the horse drink, as they say. I hope he reconsiders.

[Leon]

Hey Phil
Sorry to hear of the health issues. I hope that gets better. I, too, think you should be conservative if the finances are so needed. Good luck with everything.
.