Super high end Mantle cards

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Then why does demand keep going up as that percentage goes down? If your thesis was correct prices should decline as we get further and further out from his career and the collector demographic naturally changes.

As I said, the price premium of his early cards versus Mays' has declined over the past several years. The assumption you are making is that the collectors who saw Mantle play will be replaced by those who didn't, which means that you are assuming that younger generations will gravitate to Mantle at a higher rate than to Ruth and Cobb (otherwise their cards should see proportionally more demand since they aren't losing playing days collectors).

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

As I said, the price premium of his early cards versus Mays' has declined over the past several years. The assumption you are making is that the collectors who saw Mantle play will be replaced by those who didn't, which means that you are assuming that younger generations will gravitate to Mantle at a higher rate than to Ruth and Cobb (otherwise their cards should see proportionally more demand since they aren't losing playing days collectors).

Yes, I do make that assumption, at least as to replacing old collectors. Not sure I fully follow the rate part. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[Snapolit1]

Lists like this are a dime a dozen, but Mantle's cache in the sports fandom world at large clearly is not anywhere near on par with what it is in the collecting hobby.

http://www.espn.com/sportscentury/athletes.html

[G1911]

I think the issue is more likely to be the increase in supply in the coming years as the boomers hit life expectancy and the Mantle generations collections flood the market. There are an absurd number of Topps Mantles. There is at least 1 1968 Mickey for every collector.

On the other hand, post war Mantle is the most talked about player in this pre war board. People get pissed off if you observe indisputable facts about the pumped up 52, such as it being factually a double print or the SGC 9.5 has a lot of staining and damage for a card allegedly better than mint. Nobody gets upset if you point Wagner is not that rare. Hobby love of Mantle is entrenched and deeply emotional for some reason.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by G1911

I think the issue is more likely to be the increase in supply in the coming years as the boomers hit life expectancy and the Mantle generations collections flood the market. There are an absurd number of Topps Mantles. There is at least 1 1968 Mickey for every collector.

On the other hand, post war Mantle is the most talked about player in this pre war board. People get pissed off if you observe indisputable facts about the pumped up 52, such as it being factually a double print or the SGC 9.5 has a lot of staining and damage for a card allegedly better than mint. Nobody gets upset if you point Wagner is not that rare. Hobby love of Mantle is entrenched and deeply emotional for some reason.

Totally agree about the floodgates opening in the next few years. While I still think Mantle card will have future value, I expect other players (Negro League players for example) to increase more in value than Mantle cards.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Mantles have been flooding the market for as long as I have collected.

[packs]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Totally agree about the floodgates opening in the next few years. While I still think Mantle card will have future value, I expect other players (Negro League players for example) to increase more in value than Mantle cards.

What would be the basis for a Negro League player increase?

I tend to feel like Negro League cards have always had their own pricing that is totally independent of things like the HOF. Getting elected certainly helps, but there are plenty of Negro League players who will outsell well known HOFers every day of the week. Just wondering why you see a big increase coming? More elections to the HOF?

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by packs

What would be the basis for a Negro League player increase?

I tend to feel like Negro League cards have always had their own pricing that is totally independent of things like the HOF. Getting elected certainly helps, but there are plenty of Negro League players who will outsell well known HOFers every day of the week. Just wondering why you see a big increase coming? More elections to the HOF?

Correct. Just generally more interest recently in these players. Additionally, many have very few cards, so its also supply vs demand.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Totally agree about the floodgates opening in the next few years. While I still think Mantle card will have future value, I expect other players (Negro League players for example) to increase more in value than Mantle cards.

Agree 100% with both statements. Most Mickey cards seem to be the last card anyone wants to part with in their PC. The 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle is always difficult to buy privately from a collector, they can't part with it unless they have upgraded to another one. To me the 1952 Mantle #311 will always be the Post War Wagner....the Iconic Card of the Golden Era of Baseball Bubble Gum Card Collecting.

As for Negro League one could say the 1952 Topps Jackie or 1953 Topps Mays both High Number SP's both beautiful iconic cards. Portrait and Basket Catch!

[etsmith]

According to the list he's 9th among baseball players, so top 10. And lists like these are always very subjective.

[packs]

Mantle will always be Mantle in the collecting world. I don't see time diminishing him. He has way too many cultural touchstones in both the sport and the hobby world.

He won the Triple Crown. Even if his 1952 Topps didn't exist, his 1956 Topps card will always trade well because of it's image and Triple Crown connection. It's just a great card.

And the same is true for his Dan Dee, and his 54 Bowman, his 53 Bowman, his 53 Topps, his 54 Red Heart. He had some great luck with the art departments because his cards are among the most visually appealing in any set he appears in.

Not to mention his insane accolades as a player. I mentioned the Triple Crown. He also won 7 titles and will forever be remembered as the only player to have possibly hit a home run out of Yankee Stadium. Also, unlike Mays and Aaron, he played his entire career with a single team and that team happened to be the Yankees.

In short, he has everything that he could possibly have going for him.

[Touch'EmAll]

Mantle was extra popular because he was fortunate enough to play for the Yankees, who happened to have a lot of other really good players, and thus won quite a few World Series.

Mantle hit the ball farther - that contributes to a legendary mystique that goes beyond basic stats. Kinda like Nolan Ryan who threw the ball faster than any known human to ever exist - again, legendary mystique that goes beyond basic stats.

Now factor in the herd mentality. Gee, Mantle card prices are way up there and going strong, Gee, I better get on the wagon myself. If everyone else wants his cards, I better get some myself. Kinda like rookie cards. In the early 70's nobody cared about them, then somehow in the late 70's it was somehow decided that rookie cards are the grails, and it caught on and the herd mentality has stuck and stuck strong.

But hey, if you want mantle cards for whatever reason and are willing to pay the prices, go ahead, knock yourself out.