Super high end Mantle cards

[Peter_Spaeth]

Yankees. All the World Series. Switch hitter with unprecedented power. Physique. Overcoming injuries and pain. Folk hero demeanor. And if you look at the metrics and count the insane number of walks, arguably a top ten player. Put it all together and you have a legendary figure.

[jsfriedm]

I think the Mantle premium will diminish with time because he, more than others, owes his card values to the nostalgia of those who actually saw him play, but it's a long slow process, and his childhood fans haven't left the scene yet. But pre-pandemic, key early Mantle cards traded at 4x-5x of Mays cards in the same set/grade, and now they are often more like 2x (52 Topps very much excepted). I don't buy cards as investments, but if I did, I wouldn't see Mantles as the best place to put my money for this reason.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I think the Mantle premium will diminish with time because he, more than others, owes his card values to the nostalgia of those who actually saw him play, but it's a long slow process, and his childhood fans haven't left the scene yet. But pre-pandemic, key early Mantle cards traded at 4x-5x of Mays cards in the same set/grade, and now they are often more like 2x (52 Topps very much excepted). I don't buy cards as investments, but if I did, I wouldn't see Mantles as the best place to put my money for this reason.

I disagree. Most people buying Mantle now never saw him. Nobody saw Cobb, or Ruth, or Gehrig. I think he's embedded in the consciousness of collectors for good.

[Snapolit1]

Maybe it's just the vagaries of how markets play out and how a hobby develops.

I'm guessing in the world of car collecting there are probably similar things, where the 1967 Camaro is worth like 15 times the 1969 Camaro and other cool cars but it's always been that way in the hobby and hard to explain rationally why it developed that way. Just always been that way.

And, no, I know nothing about cars.....

[Pat R]

Popularity, in just over 30 minutes the thread is closing in on 200 views on a pre-war forum.

[Harliduck]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Maybe it's just the vagaries of how markets play out and how a hobby develops.

I'm guessing in the world of car collecting there are probably similar things, where the 1967 Camaro is worth like 15 times the 1969 Camaro and other cool cars but it's always been that way in the hobby and hard to explain rationally why it developed that way. Just always been that way.

And, no, I know nothing about cars.....

I do collect cars (1955-1974) and the car world is changing rapidly. When I was a kid growing up...6 cylinders and 4 doors were junk, even if it was a 55-57 Chevy. The youth coming up was not raised the way I was, and now the availability of the previous "junk" is rapidly growing in value and popularity. A total example of youth coming up questioning why things were they way they were.

I don't know if that translates to cards, probably doesn't...but I was born after Mantle retired and am still obsessed with him and his legacy...

[Harliduck]

Dual post?

[Grigsby]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I disagree. Most people buying Mantle now never saw him. Nobody saw Cobb, or Ruth, or Gehrig. I think he's embedded in the consciousness of collectors for good.

This.

Same concept applies to art collecting, classic cars, comic books etc.

It is what it is.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I disagree. Most people buying Mantle now never saw him. Nobody saw Cobb, or Ruth, or Gehrig. I think he's embedded in the consciousness of collectors for good.

I don't know what percentage of people buying Mantle today saw him play, but I'll bet it is significantly higher than the percentage of Cobb buyers who saw him play. Let's say, for argument's sake, that it's 30% (as opposed to 0% or 1% for Cobb). As those 30% go, it will likely shift the demand/supply balance for his cards. It doesn't mean they will go to zero or even on par with Mays, but they will at least grow at a slower rate.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I don't know what percentage of people buying Mantle today saw him play, but I'll bet it is significantly higher than the percentage of Cobb buyers who saw him play. Let's say, for argument's sake, that it's 30% (as opposed to 0% or 1% for Cobb). As those 30% go, it will likely shift the demand/supply balance for his cards. It doesn't mean they will go to zero or even on par with Mays, but they will at least grow at a slower rate.

You are assuming your conclusion, that those 30 percent of people are buying Mantle because they saw him play and from that assumption concluding that demand will go down when that percentage drops. I think it won't. The demand for Mantle has steadily increased even though more and more buyers never saw him play. I see no reason that would change as we get farther and farther away from his career. He already has achieved Cobb like status.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You are assuming your conclusion, that those 30 percent of people are buying Mantle because they saw him play and that demand will go down when that percentage drops. I think it won't. The demand for Mantle has steadily increased even though more and more buyers never saw him play. I see no reason that would change as we get farther and farther away from his career. He already has achieved Cobb like status.

No, I am providing a reason for my conclusion. There is some non-zero percentage of people who buy Mantle cards today that saw him play, which is not true for Cobb or Ruth. Therefore, there is a chance that their disappearance will shift the demand/supply equation on his cards, a risk that doesn't exist with Cobb or Ruth.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

No, I am providing a reason for my conclusion. There is some non-zero percentage of people who buy Mantle cards today that saw him play, which is not true for Cobb or Ruth. Therefore, there is a chance that their disappearance will shift the demand/supply equation on his cards, a risk that doesn't exist with Cobb or Ruth.

Then why does demand keep going up as that percentage goes down? If your thesis was correct prices should decline as we get further and further out from his career and the collector demographic naturally changes.

[raulus]

Sometimes these things are driven by fundamentals, and sometimes they take on a life of their own, like the Kardashians who are largely famous for being famous. And I suppose sometimes it’s a combo, where it might start with fundamentals, and then takes off due to popularity and resonance in the popular imagination.

Much as it pains me to admit it as a proud Italian, the Mona Lisa is really only popular today because she was the Kardashian of last century. Stolen, widely publicized in an attempt to recover the piece, talked about all over the world, eventually recovered. Without that notoriety, she would have remained an obscure small piece by a master. Still a great work of art, yet nowhere close to the level of value it has today, because today she’s known all over the world by just about everyone.

I would draw parallels to Mantle cards. Definitely a great player and generational talent, but the price of his pieces is so high simply because everyone knows and wants them. The strong premium for his stuff relative to his contemporaries who were just as good (or better) on the field defies logic. But that’s because it’s simply a question of better marketing and popularity. And that all starts with the 311, and further burnished by all of the popularity enhancers mentioned above by others.

There’s certainly room to debate how enduring that popularity will be over the next 50-100 years. But it’s proven remarkably durable so far, and shows no signs of abating anytime soon.

[Snapolit1]

Great post. Totally agree. Popularity is often fickle and downright irrational. I could walk down Fifth Avenue today and find 100 woman I think are more beautiful than Kim Kardashian.

It's interesting to me that Mantle and Jordan were similar dudes in a lot of ways. Sort of aloof, enigmatic, didn't say that much, sometimes even surly to reporters and fans. Not saying bad guys, but both (like Derek Jeter) revealed very little of themselves to the outside world. Maybe when that's your M.O. it's easier for people to project on to you and make you larger than life.

Originally Posted by raulus

Sometimes these things are driven by fundamentals, and sometimes they take on a life of their own, like the Kardashians who are largely famous for being famous. And I suppose sometimes it’s a combo, where it might start with fundamentals, and then takes off due to popularity and resonance in the popular imagination.

Much as it pains me to admit it as a proud Italian, the Mona Lisa is really only popular today because she was the Kardashian of last century. Stolen, widely publicized in an attempt to recover the piece, talked about all over the world, eventually recovered. Without that notoriety, she would have remained an obscure small piece by a master. Still a great work of art, yet nowhere close to the level of value it has today, because today she’s known all over the world by just about everyone.

I would draw parallels to Mantle cards. Definitely a great player and generational talent, but the price of his pieces is so high simply because everyone knows and wants them. The strong premium for his stuff relative to his contemporaries who were just as good (or better) on the field defies logic. But that’s because it’s simply a question of better marketing and popularity. And that all starts with the 311, and further burnished by all of the popularity enhancers mentioned above by others.

There’s certainly room to debate how enduring that popularity will be over the next 50-100 years. But it’s proven remarkably durable so far, and shows no signs of abating anytime soon.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Great post. Totally agree. Popularity is often fickle and downright irrational. I could walk down Fifth Avenue today and find 100 woman I think are more beautiful than Kim Kardashian.

It's interesting to me that Mantle and Jordan were similar dudes in a lot of ways. Sort of aloof, enigmatic, didn't say that much, sometimes even surly to reporters and fans. Not saying bad guys, but both (like Derek Jeter) revealed very little of themselves to the outside world. Maybe when that's your M.O. it's easier for people to project on to you and make you larger than life.

Only 100?

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

It's interesting to me that Mantle and Jordan were similar dudes in a lot of ways. Sort of aloof, enigmatic, didn't say that much, sometimes even surly to reporters and fans.

Mantle and Jordan's championship greatness (at least the part from how they elevated their teammates) led to similar results But the path there was much different.

Mick's teammates seemed to genuinely like him. They appeared to love playing the game with him and made it a matter of competitive personal pride to try getting as close to his level as possible.

Jordan, on the other hand, was a total ass. He also got the most out of you, but that came from relentless preparation and (probably even moreso) from fear. You marched under his command, took his shit, and pushed your limits more than you ever thought possible, or you wondered if you'd be thoroughly embarrassed and then out of a job.

[Seven]

I'll say this much.

Mantle is my main collecting interest. He died a few months after my first birthday. I never saw the man play, I grew up on stories of him. The way he was talked about, he might as well have been Jesus Christ come again. His name amongst people who love baseball history, is well known. His fame in the cardboard community? Even greater so.

I would love to say that his prices would come down, but I don't think they ever do. They might stagnate for a bit, but then they'll keep going up.

[z28jd]

I think what people are missing is that Mantle also got passed down to generations from people who saw him to people who didn't. I went quickly to collecting T206/Old Judge cards when I got money, so I don't have a huge collection of 50s-60s cards. However, my dad was a huge Mickey Mantle fan, so he was buying me Mantle cards as gifts for birthdays/Christmas almost as soon as I started collecting cards at 5-6 years old. I even bought a few on my own later on.

Mantle was in Cooperstown before I was even born, so I really missed his career, but I have more of his cards than anyone else from the 50s and 60s because of that connection.

BTW, I clicked on this because I have a 1964 Mantle that has been untouched for at least 35 years that I got as a gift. Card is flawless looking. My dad bought it back then asking for the nicest condition Mantle the guy had, so it just happened to be a 1964 card. Just saw the price for a PSA 9 that just ended last week and now I've been contemplating getting it graded.

[Kco]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I think the Mantle premium will diminish with time because he, more than others, owes his card values to the nostalgia of those who actually saw him play, but it's a long slow process, and his childhood fans haven't left the scene yet. But pre-pandemic, key early Mantle cards traded at 4x-5x of Mays cards in the same set/grade, and now they are often more like 2x (52 Topps very much excepted). I don't buy cards as investments, but if I did, I wouldn't see Mantles as the best place to put my money for this reason.

Except that Ruth, the T206 lineage as a whole and literally 20 other players who no one today saw play have all continued to appreciate. For 95+% of players you're correct, Mantle falls in the other 5% (Mays, Jackie, etc also in that crew)

[Kco]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I think the Mantle premium will diminish with time because he, more than others, owes his card values to the nostalgia of those who actually saw him play, but it's a long slow process, and his childhood fans haven't left the scene yet. But pre-pandemic, key early Mantle cards traded at 4x-5x of Mays cards in the same set/grade, and now they are often more like 2x (52 Topps very much excepted). I don't buy cards as investments, but if I did, I wouldn't see Mantles as the best place to put my money for this reason.

Except that Ruth, the T206 lineage as a whole and literally 20 other players who no one today saw play have all continued to appreciate. For 95+% of players you're correct, Mantle falls in the other 5% (Mays, Jackie, etc also in that crew)

[Seven]

I don't see how Mantle prices, go down. Maybe they stagnate, but they pretty much are what they are. He is the main draw of post-war collectors, he will continue to be for as long as the Hobby is around. He's Mickey Mantle, as American as apple pie. He's a transcendent figure in the hobby.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Seven

I don't see how Mantle prices, go down. Maybe they stagnate, but they pretty much are what they are. He is the main draw of post-war collectors, he will continue to be for as long as the Hobby is around. He's Mickey Mantle, as American as apple pie. He's a transcendent figure in the hobby.

It's been a year, but this one comes to mind:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=112451

Just to poke the bear a little, what's your best guess on what it would fetch today? Has it just stagnated or gone down?

I realize this is probably the high water mark, but I suspect it also proves the point that it's possible for even the mighty Mantle, including the mythical 311 to lose value. Particularly if you get into a major bidding war when you buy.

Now, if this owner holds for long enough, he'll probably come out ahead, or hopefully at least break even. Probably.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by raulus

It's been a year, but this one comes to mind:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=112451

Just to poke the bear a little, what's your best guess on what it would fetch today? Has it just stagnated or gone down?

I realize this is probably the high water mark, but I suspect it also proves the point that it's possible for even the mighty Mantle, including the mythical 311 to lose value. Particularly if you get into a major bidding war when you buy.

Now, if this owner holds for long enough, he'll probably come out ahead, or hopefully at least break even. Probably.

I am far from an expert, that issue is nicely centered though, which I believe, still commands a premium. I don't understand the circumstances that elevated that one particular auction to such a high, as if you're comparing the prices of PSA 5's, they don't come close to it. Perhaps you are right, the person got into a major bidding war and had to have that card.

I will say though, I think if you're spending 300K on a card, you don't necessarily have to worry about breaking even. Chances are you have more than enough money. But that is a different discussion, for a different time.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Seven

I will say though, I think if you're spending 300K on a card, you don't necessarily have to worry about breaking even. Chances are you have more than enough money. But that is a different discussion, for a different time.

In another era, I would agree with you. But I have thrown reason and expectations out the window the last 3 years.

Could it have been a collector buying it? Sure. It also could have been a flipper/ dealer looking for a mistake grade. Or worse, a quick flip.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by raulus

It's been a year, but this one comes to mind:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=112451

Just to poke the bear a little, what's your best guess on what it would fetch today? Has it just stagnated or gone down?

I realize this is probably the high water mark, but I suspect it also proves the point that it's possible for even the mighty Mantle, including the mythical 311 to lose value. Particularly if you get into a major bidding war when you buy.

Now, if this owner holds for long enough, he'll probably come out ahead, or hopefully at least break even. Probably.

They paid "8" prices cause it had "Eye Appeal"

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by raulus

It's been a year, but this one comes to mind:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=112451

Just to poke the bear a little, what's your best guess on what it would fetch today? Has it just stagnated or gone down?

I realize this is probably the high water mark, but I suspect it also proves the point that it's possible for even the mighty Mantle, including the mythical 311 to lose value. Particularly if you get into a major bidding war when you buy.

Now, if this owner holds for long enough, he'll probably come out ahead, or hopefully at least break even. Probably.

$130k Max...sadly he got caught up, he way way overpaid... if he can hold for 10 plus years he is fine, if not will be tough. He will have to deep six this card

[Peter_Spaeth]

REA giddy premium. It happens a lot.