Questions About "Modern" Cards

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

One of the afore-mentioned 'Double Walters' - which I originally purchased, by the way, from Leon, his ownself.

Incredible card, Robbie, what's the other "double WaJo?" As far as culling, most of us have had to do that from time to time, and I have found it to be relatively painless in the end.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Incredible card, Robbie, what's the other "double WaJo?" As far as culling, most of us have had to do that from time to time, and I have found it to be relatively painless in the end.

The other 'Double Walter' is the other 'Walter', Walter Mails, since they were his card set...which I still think is so cool.


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[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

The other 'Double Walter' is the other 'Walter', Walter Mails, since they were his card set...which I still think is so cool.
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Of course, duh-uh. I'm guessing that card is unique, a player having a card in his own set of players.

[ValKehl]

Raymond, I was thinking that your "other 'Double Walter'" meant that you had both the red and blue back versions of the WG7 card of WaJo. BTW, which back of WaJo do you have?

[todeen]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

That being said, I have also indulged in buying sealed boxes...wind up donating most of them to good causes (right Tim?) - but keeping the Braves.
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It was very much appreciated by every boy and parent in the room! thank you

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[jchcollins]

I can’t keep up with modern on the whole these days, but I very much appreciate the fact that healthy new collectors means a thriving hobby - and more shops, more shows, more cash flow. With all those things of course, more vintage comes out as available too.

I will occasionally buy a box of something new like Topps flagship or Heritage, but I’m not spending the $ to do all the parallels, numbered cards, SP’s, SSP’s, and autos and relics. In an age when many new to the hobby actually throw base cards in the trash - I like them. Base cards were mostly all we knew when I started in the height of the junk wax days. One of my favorite modern cards is the ‘21 Heritage Shohei Ohtani (‘72 Topps design). It’s not worth much, but I just like the design and the picture. Base cards can be a cheap way to still have fun with the hobby and keep up with current MLB.


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[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I can’t keep up with modern on the whole these days, but I very much appreciate the fact that healthy new collectors means a thriving hobby - and more shops, more shows, more cash flow. With all those things of course, more vintage comes out as available too. I will occasionally buy a box of something new like Topps flagship or Heritage, but I’m not spending the $ to do all the parallels, numbered cards, SP’s, SSP’s, and autos and relics. In an age when many new to the hobby actually throw base cards in the trash - I like them. Base cards were mostly all we knew when I started in the height of the junk wax days. One of my favorite modern cards is the ‘21 Heritage Shohei Ohtani (‘72 Topps design). It’s not worth much, but I just like the design and the picture. Base cards can be a cheap way to still have fun with the hobby and keep up with current MLB. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

There might turn out to be an interesting parallel between the "base cards" of my youth (50s and 60s Topps, etc.) and the base cards of the "junk wax" era
whereby the former were rendered scarce by bike spokes, flipping, basement floods, moms looking to clean out old bedrooms, etc., and the latter being left on the floor or discarded into the trash after the packs were opened and the search for chase cards completed. And maybe that is still going on in different forms of disparagement of more modern base cards that would lead people to toss them when going to college or into the Army, getting married and moving into small starter apartments, and the like. The perception of lack of future value, after all, is what has created scarcity for every one of the cards and other memorabilia that was issued in the millions a hundred or more years ago and now go for millions each in some cases. Not saying there is any kind of comparability between them, but it's interesting to contemplate the potential similarities.

[Seven]

Just chiming in here.

Every so often I'll buy something small from one of the modern sets. I feel absolutely overwhelmed with all the products though. So many different subsets, parallels, refactors, hell there's apparently something called a "tacofractor" with pictures of tacos on the card (I wish I was joking)

It's gotten too complicated, the market seems too over saturated, I'd argue it's worse than the junk wax era. One thing that I love about vintage, is that there were a couple of "main" sets and then a few regional sets sprinkled in.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by gonefishin

I never, or very rarely, hear a young, new to the hobby collector, cut down a vintage collector, etc. I read a lot of posts from vintage collector's that either make jest off, or run down the modern collector. It's not right and I don't agree. The truth is, modern collectors are what keeps this hobby alive and thriving. They are the future. We may not agree with the methods or reasons why they collect, but unless it does damage, real not perceived, why should one care? We should be elated that young people have joined the hobby.

This comment is gold.

I am sorry to say because we tend to ignore it in this forum, but unless you walk through a show in horse-blinders you have to realize that vintage has become a fractional segment of the hobby and hopefully always will be. To many dealers, as has been mentioned prior in the thread about the Bo Jackson card, the dealer did not sell "vintage". The ridiculous definition of modern we hold is just plain silly. 1980 was 43 years ago, I can get a Historical automobile plate for a car in Michigan after 26 years...thus a 1996 Honda Civic is a Historical automobile as weird as it seems.

I collect all years from the 1800's to tomorrow and enjoy every bit. It keeps me in touch with my son and I learn more everyday and keep the old man memory losses slowed down, lol.

I collected stamps as a kid and teen and watched the lack of new collectors kill the hobby. It remains only a bastion for the handful of old collectors still getting the classics like Graf Zeppelins but any thing else isn't worth face value most of the time. The USPS put the first nail in by making it a hobby for sticker collectors and killing albums then the collectors tossed the dirt on by being unwelcoming to anyone young. We don't want that future.

The absolute best thing for the hobby, bar none, is modern cards being successful and keeping the base growing. Those 14 year old kids with the backpacks and pelican cases at the show are far more important to the hobby than us and we should welcome them with open arms.

[cgjackson222]

Agreed that we need young people in the hobby. Even if only a small fraction of them migrate to vintage, that is still a lot of people. And without them, the National and other big shows might not even be viable.

I recently started dabbling in modern, and it is utterly confusing. For example, there are 63 2018 Shohei Ohtani Rookie cards by one estimate. That doesn't include any of his cards in a Japanese uniform.

Another thing is how much the TPG matters. If you don't go with PSA, good luck selling your cards for a decent price. A 2018 Topps Chrome Ohtani paper (not the refractor) goes for about $350 during the past week on ebay. The same card in an SGC or CSG 10 goes for about $230. If you roll the dice and get a Pristine 10 by BGS, you can sell it for about $550, but if you only get 9.5, it sells for less than half of the BGS 10.

It makes you wonder if you can break out an SGC, CSG, or BGS 9.5 and get a 10 by PSA for some relatively easy money.

With all of the speculation and volatility, it is just gambling. I don't know if the kids gambling on modern will get the same rush they do from buying vintage. Obviously investing of any kind is speculation and a form of gambling, but some of this modern speculation in players that haven't made it out of single A takes it a more disturbing level.

[packs]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Agreed that we need young people in the hobby. Even if only a small fraction of them migrate to vintage, that is still a lot of people. And without them, the National and other big shows might not even be viable.

I recently started dabbling in modern, and it is utterly confusing. For example, there are 63 2018 Shohei Ohtani Rookie cards by one estimate. That doesn't include any of his cards in a Japanese uniform.

Another thing is how much the TPG matters. If you don't go with PSA, good luck selling your cards for a decent price. A 2018 Topps Chrome Ohtani paper (not the refractor) goes for about $350 during the past week on ebay. The same card in an SGC or CSG 10 goes for about $230. If you roll the dice and get a Pristine 10 by BGS, you can sell it for about $550, but if you only get 9.5, it sells for less than half of the BGS 10.

It makes you wonder if you can break out an SGC, CSG, or BGS 9.5 and get a 10 by PSA for some relatively easy money.

With all of the speculation and volatility, it is just gambling. I don't know if the kids gambling on modern will get the same rush they do from buying vintage. Obviously investing of any kind is speculation and a form of gambling, but some of this modern speculation in players that haven't made it out of single A takes it a more disturbing level.

Is there a big difference between someone investing in a minor league prospect and someone who bought a bunch of Ohtani material in 2018? He'd only played in Japan and other than Ichiro, Japanese players didn't have a great track record of becoming perennial All Stars or MVP candidates in America.

But if you had jumped on Ohtani in 2018, didn't you do well for yourself today?

I guess what I'm getting at is that there seems to be a need to put distance between different methods of collecting. But when it comes down to it, we're all mostly collecting in similar ways.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by packs

Is there a big difference between someone investing in a minor league prospect and someone who bought a bunch of Ohtani material in 2018? He'd only played in Japan and other than Ichiro, Japanese players didn't have a great track record of becoming perennial All Stars or MVP candidates in America.

But if you had jumped on Ohtani in 2018, didn't you do well for yourself today?

I guess what I'm getting at is that there seems to be a need to put distance between different methods of collecting. But when it comes down to it, we're all mostly collecting in similar ways.

Not really sure where you are going with this. I think all forms of investing are gambling, but some are obviously riskier than others. Obviously, the earlier you invest in a player during their career, the more risky. But you may also be able to get the cards for less. What scares me is people paying 6 figures for a player like Jasson Dominguez who hasn't proven himself yet.

[packs]

What I'm getting at is that although collecting modern cards is much maligned in the vintage arena, both segments of the collecting pool are collecting in much the same ways.

Whereas pre-war collectors seem to be looking to be the first to discover the next card to get a price bump, modern collectors are looking to be the first to buy or sell their own next card up.

I think we should all appreciate collecting in general, rather than try to disparage what or how another person might collect.

[Snowman]

1986 Fleer Basketball is one of the most widely collects sets in the hobby. But other than that, I can't think of any other modern sets that are highly sought after.

[Exhibitman]

I literally wrote a column on this last week. Here is an excerpt:

I am hearing a great deal of protest from modern card folks about the attitudes of collectors of vintage cards. Basically, it takes the form of a whine about how it isn’t nice to crap all over someone’s way of collecting, and it isn’t fair to label people who collect modern cards, participate in breaks, etc., as “stupid”.

That isn’t what is going on at all. People are not being called "stupid"; some collectors are being told they are engaged in highly speculative investment activities, spurred on by investment touting and log-rolling that tries to gloss modern cards as investment grade items, and they should watch their sixes. Collect whatever makes you smile. I am into utterly worthless but absolutely beautiful prewar Japanese printed invitations, greeting cards and postcards. But when you start talking the financial end of it, you walk into the buzzsaw of critical analysis.

Now, the criticism/advice isn’t gratuitous. Those of us voicing the warnings on modern are not making personal attacks and aren’t doing it for s***s and giggles. We see ourselves less as scolds than as Cassandras. No one likes to hear "remember thou art mortal", but we say it anyway. Long-time collectors have real world perspectives on this: we are sitting on monster boxes full of it. What has been expressed is the wonder at how history repeats and how the lessons of the past typically are relearned the hard way by those who are new to the field and are convinced that this time it is going to be different than it has been in every single other speculative bubble over the last 40 years. Ignorance can be bliss, but in investments, ignorance is fatal, and as the hobby evolves into a form of alternative investment, more money than ever is at risk, yet many act as if risk was non-existent and us old farts are just being d**ks about it.

I happen to think, from what I see, that a sizable percentage of newbies are dangerously ignorant of the hobby’s boom-and-bust cycles. They have never seen, nor do they comprehend, what happens in the hobby when we have a basic, high unemployment, 6–18-month recession. Sales flatline and prices drop. Not a problem if you are holding a card with a population of a few hundred. It will come back. When no one is buying abundant, hyped cards on the flip, however, these newer participants are going to crap themselves then sell right into a price-demand death spiral. They always do. It crashes the items that are speculative, thinly collected, not otherwise subject to genuine collector demand, or with a massive pop. Does that mean every Kaboom! or Jambalaya is going to fall into the commons bins? Of course not. But prices will drop hard and fast and when your financial model depends on rapidly laddering prices, look out below.

I don't think there is a serious debate to be had that a sizable percentage of newbies are engaging in a form of young player/new card speculation that has a long track record of failure. The cabinets of longtime collectors are littered with the cardboard images of flashes in the pan, from Ron Kittle to Kevin Maas; we've all got piles of junk (damn you Keston Hiura). Most prospects will go sour, as will their cards. There is no reason to believe that the people speculatively accumulating cards of shiny new players will have a different outcome than everyone else who followed that strategy in the last 40 years. What does stand out today is the steep trajectory of the price increases and the resulting incredible sums at risk, so much more than in any other rookie card run. I don't really care that the twenty bucks I put into Topps Walgreens yellow Hiura cards is gone; I would be sh****ng egg rolls if I'd spent thousands on a signed shiny limited edition thingy. The scary thing about modern is that there are tons of very expensive signed shiny limited edition thingies that place really large sums of money at risk and that new ones come out practically every week.

The unprecedented level of hype is real too. What is shiny and new today is not so shiny or new next week. There is a strategy being deployed to manipulate people who do not have sufficient perspective into buying items and services that are not likely to have real value over the long haul. In that regard, Fanatics and Panini and all of the breakers and influencers remind me of stock bucket shops slogging dodgy IPOs. There is an epic degree of pumping by influencers, manufacturers, and the people who make money off the speculators (the service providers like PSA and Goldin). What is missing is end user collector demand for all this product. The proof of that, as it was in past crazes, is how many of these cards are being slabbed, sold and resold rapidly rather than disappearing into long treasured collections. 30 years ago, it was 100 count stacks of Gregg Jeffries and Gary Sheffield 89 UD cards. Today it is the latest shiny, varied, limited edition card. Both scenarios featured rapid price rises and frenzied trading of abundantly-available cards. That form of price laddering looks great but it has a nasty way of crashing, especially when the economy cools (e.g. unemployment rises); it is true with IPOs, it was true of every rookie card bubble, and there is no reason to think it will not be true here again. Take NFTs as a cautionary tale of hype without substance. The believers in NFTs are strangely silent now because they got cleaned out when the hype failed and the music stopped playing; Bored Ape NFT, anyone?

From a financial perspective, I am not sure the newbs understand that the hobby is a particularly brutal investment when it comes to new players and modern cards because the bet can go to zero very fast and there is no hedging or exit strategy available. Even in a falling stock market, you can set a stop loss and get out, and real estate never goes to zero, it cycles, but when Sam Horn goes down the tubes there is no exit and no bottom except the commons bin. Babe Ruth does not go down the crapper the way the latest, greatest thing will when his WAR falls to 1.8 (yeah, looking at you, Pete Alonso).

And a card: