Questions About "Modern" Cards

cgjackson222 · #1 08-08-2023, 12:03 PM

Agreed that we need young people in the hobby. Even if only a small fraction of them migrate to vintage, that is still a lot of people. And without them, the National and other big shows might not even be viable.

I recently started dabbling in modern, and it is utterly confusing. For example, there are 63 2018 Shohei Ohtani Rookie cards by one estimate. That doesn't include any of his cards in a Japanese uniform.

Another thing is how much the TPG matters. If you don't go with PSA, good luck selling your cards for a decent price. A 2018 Topps Chrome Ohtani paper (not the refractor) goes for about $350 during the past week on ebay. The same card in an SGC or CSG 10 goes for about $230. If you roll the dice and get a Pristine 10 by BGS, you can sell it for about $550, but if you only get 9.5, it sells for less than half of the BGS 10.

It makes you wonder if you can break out an SGC, CSG, or BGS 9.5 and get a 10 by PSA for some relatively easy money.

With all of the speculation and volatility, it is just gambling. I don't know if the kids gambling on modern will get the same rush they do from buying vintage. Obviously investing of any kind is speculation and a form of gambling, but some of this modern speculation in players that haven't made it out of single A takes it a more disturbing level.

packs · #2 08-08-2023, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Agreed that we need young people in the hobby. Even if only a small fraction of them migrate to vintage, that is still a lot of people. And without them, the National and other big shows might not even be viable.

I recently started dabbling in modern, and it is utterly confusing. For example, there are 63 2018 Shohei Ohtani Rookie cards by one estimate. That doesn't include any of his cards in a Japanese uniform.

Another thing is how much the TPG matters. If you don't go with PSA, good luck selling your cards for a decent price. A 2018 Topps Chrome Ohtani paper (not the refractor) goes for about $350 during the past week on ebay. The same card in an SGC or CSG 10 goes for about $230. If you roll the dice and get a Pristine 10 by BGS, you can sell it for about $550, but if you only get 9.5, it sells for less than half of the BGS 10.

It makes you wonder if you can break out an SGC, CSG, or BGS 9.5 and get a 10 by PSA for some relatively easy money.

With all of the speculation and volatility, it is just gambling. I don't know if the kids gambling on modern will get the same rush they do from buying vintage. Obviously investing of any kind is speculation and a form of gambling, but some of this modern speculation in players that haven't made it out of single A takes it a more disturbing level.

Is there a big difference between someone investing in a minor league prospect and someone who bought a bunch of Ohtani material in 2018? He'd only played in Japan and other than Ichiro, Japanese players didn't have a great track record of becoming perennial All Stars or MVP candidates in America.

But if you had jumped on Ohtani in 2018, didn't you do well for yourself today?

I guess what I'm getting at is that there seems to be a need to put distance between different methods of collecting. But when it comes down to it, we're all mostly collecting in similar ways.

cgjackson222 · #3 08-08-2023, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

Is there a big difference between someone investing in a minor league prospect and someone who bought a bunch of Ohtani material in 2018? He'd only played in Japan and other than Ichiro, Japanese players didn't have a great track record of becoming perennial All Stars or MVP candidates in America.

But if you had jumped on Ohtani in 2018, didn't you do well for yourself today?

I guess what I'm getting at is that there seems to be a need to put distance between different methods of collecting. But when it comes down to it, we're all mostly collecting in similar ways.

Not really sure where you are going with this. I think all forms of investing are gambling, but some are obviously riskier than others. Obviously, the earlier you invest in a player during their career, the more risky. But you may also be able to get the cards for less. What scares me is people paying 6 figures for a player like Jasson Dominguez who hasn't proven himself yet.

packs · #4 08-08-2023, 12:36 PM

What I'm getting at is that although collecting modern cards is much maligned in the vintage arena, both segments of the collecting pool are collecting in much the same ways.

Whereas pre-war collectors seem to be looking to be the first to discover the next card to get a price bump, modern collectors are looking to be the first to buy or sell their own next card up.

I think we should all appreciate collecting in general, rather than try to disparage what or how another person might collect.

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