The hobby morale is low video

[Exhibitman]

i am using the term intentionally to differentiate the actual exchange portion of the show from the breaking booth, corporate area, unopened modern card retail sellers, auction house displays, autograph area and service providers (graders, supply sellers, etc.). The bourse element of the National has been shrinking.

[JustinD]

Low morale is not the same as a slow return to sanity.

I still fully believe pre-pandemic prices are a more realistic baseline and expect that return over the coming couple years. This was a fad and the collectors will continue on. This is not a death of the hobby, just another passing of a pet rock, beanie baby jump in collecting history until the next comes along as it always will.

A return to prices of just a few years ago is certainly not a sky is falling scenario.

[destijl03]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Low morale is not the same as a slow return to sanity.

I still fully believe pre-pandemic prices are a more realistic baseline and expect that return over the coming couple years. This was a fad and the collectors will continue on. This is not a death of the hobby, just another passing of a pet rock, beanie baby jump in collecting history until the next comes along as it always will.

A return to prices of just a few years ago is certainly not a sky is falling scenario.

I'm one of the collectors who returned to the hobby in 2021, 25 years removed from buying packs as a 10 year old, so take this for what it is from that perspective.

I'll go ahead and admit up front that I'm not familiar with the ebbs and flows of the hobby as most here are. I'm a data analyst by profession, so I love looking at all of the research and analyses that have already been done over the years here on N54, as well as some of my own. I agree with you that most card prices will come back down to pre-pandemic levels, especially modern cards (Ohtani may be the outlier). But with pre-war vintage, that I'm not so sure about. What I see when I look at pre-war vintage sales data back to 2005 is that cards were severely undervalued in comparison to other eras and their respective price increases over time leading up to the 2020-2021 boom. I think that the current value of pre-war vintage is the new baseline. I personally don't see those values falling to pre-pandemic levels, but again I'm not familiar enough with the ebbs and flows to feel confident in that assessment.

I echo James' earlier post in that, as someone who has fallen in love with pre-war vintage, my entry point is much higher than if I had started just 5 years ago. It really stinks for me to see grail cards on the board that I might have been able to afford if I had just started 5 years ago, but are now unattainable. Would I like to see pre-war prices drop to pre-pandemic levels? Selfishly, I would have to say yes, just because I would love to be able have the chance to collect some of those grail cards that I see posted. My morale isn't low about collecting in the present-day, I'm just sick when I think about the kind of collection I could have if I had only started 5-10-15 years ago

Having said all of that, I'm a collector at heart, so I will find a way to collect the cards that make me happy, even if that means one card a month or every couple of months. Now that I've rediscovered a love for the hobby as an adult, and there are great resources like N54, I see myself sticking around for the long haul this time.

[packs]

My morale is low. It's really hard to collect right now. Cards that should be in budget aren't and I can't really justify selling my cards for exorbitant prices just to pay an exorbitant price for something else.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by packs

My morale is low. It's really hard to collect right now. Cards that should be in budget aren't and I can't really justify selling my cards for exorbitant prices just to pay an exorbitant price for something else.

Just look at like the housing market back in 07-09 where you sell your house worth 350k for 250k. Then take that 250k and buy a 450k house for 250k.

I could have used the same example by saying sell your 350k house for 450k and then buy a new house valued at 400k for 450k if you really like it.

It’s all relative. How do card prices rise in value???? People pay more than what the last one sold for and it becomes a precedent or a comp.

[packs]

Yeah, of course it's relative but what I'm saying is that buying high is not. I have no reason to sell my cards just to overpay for another. I'll wait it out or never own them.

That's what kills my morale. I used to be able to save up for a card. Now the only real way for me to expand my collection is to sell.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by packs

Yeah, of course it's relative but what I'm saying is that buying high is not. I have no reason to sell my cards just to overpay for another. I'll wait it out or never own them.



That's what kills my morale. I used to be able to save up for a card. Now the only real way for me to expand my collection is to sell.

I get what you are saying. You are comparing fast growth cards vs moderate growth. You sell your collection cuz you want to buy Jackie or Satchell, buy their growth outpaced other vintage cards. So now you need to sell more than usual to cover the extraordinary growth of their popularity, and you're not sure the trade is worth it.

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[raulus]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Just look at like the housing market back in 07-09 where you sell your house worth 350k for 250k. Then take that 250k and buy a 450k house for 250k.

I could have used the same example by saying sell your 350k house for 450k and then buy a new house valued at 400k for 450k if you really like it.

It’s all relative. How do card prices rise in value???? People pay more than what the last one sold for and it becomes a precedent or a comp.

I think we all get that concept. And it's obviously been one hell of a run for the last 3 years.

The bigger issue in my mind is when people decide that there's other stuff they'd rather have for their cash, especially when we're talking about real serious money in the 5 and 6 figures for so many pieces out there. That's real money. Potentially life changing money (whether you're buying or selling). It's not as if there are no other alternatives for people to invest/spend/consume. Unlike houses, there's no innate connection between basic survival and cardboard. And if enough current collectors/holders/investors/owners decide they'd rather have all that sweet, sweet cash than continue to have and to hold the cardboard, then that's when the party really gets down.

Obviously cardboard continues to defy gravity that way. For some odd reason, us people (including me) would rather have a single nice piece of cardboard than a gigantic stack of cash that they could spend or invest for literally anything else. I'm just not convinced that it will continue FOR EV ER. It's not as if it's an impossible thing to happen. In theory, all it would take is a shift in the dynamic, with more people getting out than are getting in. The same process that happens on the upswing works in reverse going down.

Aaaaaaaaaaaany minute now!

[Seven]

Echoing what has been said, and this is a point that I've made numerous times. I'm always happy when someone scores a new pickup, or gets their grail card. Just as I know many are happy for me, when I post something new that I've picked up. At the end of the day this hobby is all about the cardboard, and our shared love and commitment to said hobby.

I almost get a feeling of Envy though when I hear about someone telling me how much they paid for a t206 Matty, or a 52 Topps Mantle, or 33 Goudey Ruth. It's not because I'm not happy for the person, it's because that I simply wasn't alive at the time these cards were available for reasonable prices.

And I fully understand inflation is a thing, and the value of a dollar is different, but even if you track the price of the card, and adjust it for inflation, some cards are worth four or five times their value. It's almost like when we look at the Housing market. My Grandparents paid $10,000 for their house back in the 1950's. If adjusted for inflation the same house today would be a bit over 100K. What's the house actually worth? Over $1.5 Million.

I understand this is life, and I'm not exactly complaining about the hand I was dealt, but God sometimes I really do wonder how people are able to do it nowadays.

[Seven]

EDIT: Double Post

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by destijl03

I'll go ahead and admit up front that I'm not familiar with the ebbs and flows of the hobby as most here are. I'm a data analyst by profession, so I love looking at all of the research and analyses that have already been done over the years here on N54, as well as some of my own. I agree with you that most card prices will come back down to pre-pandemic levels, especially modern cards (Ohtani may be the outlier). But with pre-war vintage, that I'm not so sure about. What I see when I look at pre-war vintage sales data back to 2005 is that cards were severely undervalued in comparison to other eras and their respective price increases over time leading up to the 2020-2021 boom. I think that the current value of pre-war vintage is the new baseline. I personally don't see those values falling to pre-pandemic levels, but again I'm not familiar enough with the ebbs and flows to feel confident in that assessment.

I would agree to disagree, but that is just dandy. I like to follow my own drummer at times.

I feel (again for the room, "I") much like the investor group of a few years prior to this, things will settle. I think the elephant in the room is that modern crashed so quick and so soon, that exactly like the stragglers of the meme stock game they could not accept the change.

If you pay attention to the Geoff Wilsons and all the flippers of modern, they are currently treating vintage like it was gold or mutuals as a safe investment until their speculative 'rookie gold refractors' rocket to the moon again. It's a hedge bet causing the boost in current interest and true collectors are buying up because of FOMO.

The adrenaline rush of flipping for 100k more in the next auction just won't be there in the coming year to regain the losses they have incurred in those massive Zion PSA buys. They will move on, just like they went from crypto to nfts to meme stocks back to crypto and cards...the beat goes on. The extra demand they are causing by the shift to vintage will slowly subside.

It will happen again in the future, it always follows a cycle...but FOMO is not something to panic about. The amount of borrowing that many of them did because they thought this was "sure thing" is what brought down PWCC. The credit card bills and HELOCs currently maxed in an inflationary market is going to bring some serious piles of cards to market in the coming year. Shirts will be lost and that's just life. Liquidate...bankruptcy...new get rich quick scheme...circle of life. If the FED was not handcuffed by political election pressures we would have much higher interest rates than now...what will happen after November 2024 if consumer spending continues the current pressure?

If you are collecting mid-grade like most of us...its most logically coming down. The high grade will sit in collections for years until the owners feel they can break even. That stuff will be missing like DB Cooper unless someone dies, especially if it was bought in the past 3 years.

These are my opinions only, real economic or investment advice you have to pay for....

[Touch'EmAll]

Morale is low. Uh, ok, to some degree. Depends on which boat you're sitting. Did you buy pre-pandemic, during pandemic, recently post-pandemic. Did you buy top tier pre-war HOFers, did you buy post war vintage, did you buy modern. All depends on what you bought and when.

But whatever you did in the past, too late to change, water under the bridge.

Now the big question is what do you do from this day forward? What is your budget. What cards do you prefer. What cards do you honestly think have good chance increasing in value - short term and/or long term.

Yes, I can see if you were unlucky with past purchases, your morale is probably low. But there are some people who were lucky where the morale is still quite good.

Fortunately, I guess us dinosaurs here on Net54 have a nice stash from years ago. Morale is decent. Got lucky I guess.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Morale is low. Uh, ok, to some degree. Depends on which boat you're sitting. Did you buy pre-pandemic, during pandemic, recently post-pandemic. Did you buy top tier pre-war HOFers, did you buy post war vintage, did you buy modern. All depends on what you bought and when.

But whatever you did in the past, too late to change, water under the bridge.

Now the big question is what do you do from this day forward? What is your budget. What cards do you prefer. What cards do you honestly think have good chance increasing in value - short term and/or long term.

Yes, I can see if you were unlucky with past purchases, your morale is probably low. But there are some people who were lucky where the morale is still quite good.

Fortunately, I guess us dinosaurs here on Net54 have a nice stash from years ago. Morale is decent. Got lucky I guess.

Quite honestly if this is the boat you're in then you haven't been collecting for very long. The majority of us are LONG time collectors used to a hobby with an average uptick in prices that has gone out of whack entirely over the last three years.

Every card in my collection has appreciated 4,5 6 or 10 times over but the problem is that the same is true for everything I want to buy.

That's why people are low on the hobby. You're talking about investments while most of us are just trying to collect.

[Exhibitman]

What all of this discussion points to is that you can't really straddle the fence between collector and investor, or be agnostic about the finances of your collection, not at today's values. If you are a collector and you know you aren't selling off your cards in the foreseeable future absent a calamity, then this is all an academic exercise. If you are an investor, you have to move in and out of things as the money seems to flow, hopefully by anticipating trends and buying or selling into them, hopefully unsentimentally. It isn't easy to make those distinctions, but in life not a lot is easy peasy. Frankly, not being able to decide whether to sell vastly profitable cards, or whether to buy a five-figure card, are wonderful problems to have.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by JustinD

If you are collecting mid-grade like most of us...its most logically coming down. The high grade will sit in collections for years until the owners feel they can break even. That stuff will be missing like DB Cooper unless someone dies, especially if it was bought in the past 3 years....

DB Cooper is nice imagery, but it shows our age. What's something more modern? Art theft?

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[ullmandds]

market sure seems to have lost it's zeal for late 70's high grade topps commons...babe ruth...not so much!!!!