What is the one thing that has changed most since you started collecting?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

What is one card collecting thing that will change in the next 10-15 years?

My suspicion is that we are on the road to developing a very stratified, two-tier, (or more) collecting system where an entire piece of the hobby infrastructure caters exclusively to the hobby upper class and has no meaning to the rest of the collectors, and an entirely different segment caters to everyone else. We already see the start of this stratification in a variety of ways:

--Walk a show and see how readily the groups of collectors self-differentiate by class. Not many vintage collectors hanging around the breaking pavilion, and very few card bros are unloading their Zion cases at mom and pop tables of vintage cards.

--The proliferation of vaults. No true collector in the classical sense would give a s*** about a vault; what's the point in owning a card you can't even hold in your hand? An investor, on the other hand, would rather not risk the loss of transporting or bear the cost of insurance on a valuable asset.

--I don’t think it is any accident that the rise of organized investment-collecting catering to the hobby 1% and modern speculators has resulted in a two-tiered auction system where there are expensive catalog auctions and internet only $10 starting point auctions. Now I also happen to think that much of the monthly auction business is stuff that used to go to eBay instead and represents a shift in sale venue rather than an expansion of material per se. The way eBay's fees have gone up (owing to the quirks of eBay's system, the spread between eBay and a typical BP is around 5.5%), and the hostility towards sellers, make the monthlies quite attractive. Do I consign a $300 card to a monthly at 20% or do I sell it via eBay at 14.5% and be responsible for shipping and potential losses? It is becoming a closer question. But the salient point for our analysis is that there is a secondary tier of auctions that are quite popular with less well-heeled collectors.

-- Walk the floor at the National now as compared to a decade ago and it is obvious that the total number of retail card dealer tables at the National has declined markedly, while the total floor area devoted to auctioneers, service providers, corporate booths, card breaks and manufactured memorabilia (e.g., autographs and related paraphernalia) has filled in the gap. I think we are in for more of this, perhaps even to the point where the vintage card dealer is no longer the backbone of the National, as is the case with Comicon’s show floor versus all of the other activities.

In sum, the tectonic shift is already under way. What we make of it depends on us. The move to vertically integrate in a way that most collectors do not like or value leaves an opening for businesses to cater to the mass of collectors, and I suspect that is one reason why local shows and modestly priced auctions are thriving while a venture like Collectable, which sought to securitize cards and create a card stock market that required mass participation, fell on its face. The clientele who likes the financialization of card collecting can buy the big cards directly rather than trading theoretical interests in them and ceding control over the asset and its sale to the promoter, and the group that cannot afford them doesn’t want to screw around with a share of a card they never actually touch and cannot control.

Of course, this is all just spitballing: if I knew the future I would be buying and selling, not screeding on a chat board

[bgar3]

Agree, grading prices, and internet.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

My suspicion is that we are on the road to developing a very stratified, two-tier, (or more) collecting system where an entire piece of the hobby infrastructure caters exclusively to the hobby upper class and has no meaning to the rest of the collectors, and an entirely different segment caters to everyone else. We already see the start of this stratification in a variety of ways:

--Walk a show and see how readily the groups of collectors self-differentiate by class. Not many vintage collectors hanging around the breaking pavilion, and very few card bros are unloading their Zion cases at mom and pop tables of vintage cards.

--The proliferation of vaults. No true collector in the classical sense would give a s*** about a vault; what's the point in owning a card you can't even hold in your hand? An investor, on the other hand, would rather not risk the loss of transporting or bear the cost of insurance on a valuable asset.

--I don’t think it is any accident that the rise of organized investment-collecting catering to the hobby 1% and modern speculators has resulted in a two-tiered auction system where there are expensive catalog auctions and internet only $10 starting point auctions. Now I also happen to think that much of the monthly auction business is stuff that used to go to eBay instead and represents a shift in sale venue rather than an expansion of material per se. The way eBay's fees have gone up (owing to the quirks of eBay's system, the spread between eBay and a typical BP is around 5.5%), and the hostility towards sellers, make the monthlies quite attractive. Do I consign a $300 card to a monthly at 20% or do I sell it via eBay at 14.5% and be responsible for shipping and potential losses? It is becoming a closer question. But the salient point for our analysis is that there is a secondary tier of auctions that are quite popular with less well-heeled collectors.

-- Walk the floor at the National now as compared to a decade ago and it is obvious that the total number of retail card dealer tables at the National has declined markedly, while the total floor area devoted to auctioneers, service providers, corporate booths, card breaks and manufactured memorabilia (e.g., autographs and related paraphernalia) has filled in the gap. I think we are in for more of this, perhaps even to the point where the vintage card dealer is no longer the backbone of the National, as is the case with Comicon’s show floor versus all of the other activities.

In sum, the tectonic shift is already under way. What we make of it depends on us. The move to vertically integrate in a way that most collectors do not like or value leaves an opening for businesses to cater to the mass of collectors, and I suspect that is one reason why local shows and modestly priced auctions are thriving while a venture like Collectable, which sought to securitize cards and create a card stock market that required mass participation, fell on its face. The clientele who likes the financialization of card collecting can buy the big cards directly rather than trading theoretical interests in them and ceding control over the asset and its sale to the promoter, and the group that cannot afford them doesn’t want to screw around with a share of a card they never actually touch and cannot control.

Of course, this is all just spitballing: if I knew the future I would be buying and selling, not screeding on a chat board

Well said Adam, I agree +1

[jakebeckleyoldeagleeye]

Digital cards. I just don't get it.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Section103

2) The internet greatly changed the marketplace. I'd venture to say that I would have never SEEN 70% of the cards in my collection, much less have a chance to own them.

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

My suspicion is that we are on the road to developing a very stratified, two-tier, (or more) collecting system where an entire piece of the hobby infrastructure caters exclusively to the hobby upper class and has no meaning to the rest of the collectors, and an entirely different segment caters to everyone else. We already see the start of this stratification in a variety of ways:

Agree that all of the best pieces of my collection (minus 3) have come from ebay. Last year I found a 1990 KGJ Desert Shield at my LCS. That is the first vintage card I can remember buying locally in years.

What I most agree with Adam about is the vertical integration that we are seeing with Fanatics. It is going to bring about a tectonic shift into our hobby that will be unfathomable. Us vintage collectors will be looking at modern collecting and collectors and feel even more disconnected from them than ever.

I think Adams comment is insightful; and I agree "tiered levels of collecting" is already underway. But I think the stratification has existed for a decade or longer. I always thought I was too poor for auction houses when big ones would come along - like the Halper collection. Even now, I can realistically only get 1 or 2 nicer items per year ($1500 or less), which isn't enough to compete in auctions. I'm certain however that other collectors look at me and think I'm a big dog. Maybe I'm middle class? I choose to buy lesser HOF players because I feel I can compete and purchase items for them. I recently got a Barry Larkin GU Bat from 1990 because I sold items to pay for it. There is no way in Hades I could buy a comparable Babe Ruth bat from 1927 even if I sold every collectible I own. And think of the collectors on this board that routinely state they are looking for a "collector grade" version of a card. Even on this board we know who the Big Dogs are. But we small pups enjoy being here and when someone buys the T206 big three in less than a week (like occurred last year...or two years ago?) we yippy dogs feel fortunate enough to be able to say congrats and we are excited for the buyer....and I believe the feelings are true.

Here's another example: Babe Ruth has almost become unattainable to the lower end collector. In 2019, the entry level Ruth cards were Sanella, Churchmans, Butterfinger, Quaker Oats, and some strip cards. Look at those prices now! Older collectors still look at those cards and think...that much for Quaker Oats? Newer collectors don't know a difference. Think of all the posts, at least once per month, that ask "I have $$$, what should I buy?" That's stratification.


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[rjackson44]

folks at shows filming themselves interviewing themselves like their movie stars. YouTube channels telling you what to buy or and what not to buy . people taking huge and scary losses on the new stuff. miss going to the East Coast national Gloria show and just having a nice day.thx

[Keith H. Thompson]

when I started buying seriously on eBay, I could search for "Baseball" and get a few hundred hits a day. Easy to work through. Today, one puts in a single player; say "Pete Rose" and the hit list has to be truncated.

I do not wish to return to the old days, for the continuing upsurge in prices has driven many desirable items onto the market. For example, Old Judge N172s and N173s of Sam Thompson were priced at five to ten dollars, but you could not find them, even at Bob and Paul Gallagher's booth at the old Astor House Card Show in New York. Today I'm lucky to find an example priced in mid four figures, but they are available.