Hypothetical Value of Unopened Packs

[JollyElm]

All sorts of other factors have to be added to the equation, like what (for Topps-era cards) series the pack is from, etc.

[jingram058]

https://net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=332745

This guy posts from time to time.

I have severe doubt when it comes to any supposed unopened packs, graded or otherwise. Just because something is incredibly expensive doesn't make it real. I'm not going to refinance my house over a pack of baseball cards, or any cards.

[steve B]

It's really all just based on a gamble over what cards or cards might be in the pack.

If I had the money, I'd pick up some more modern ones as uncommon items on their own. But not at the prices that assume it's got the important stars rather than just a common or two.

[Leon]

I think many, if not most, packs are worth more unopened. Such a gamble but it would be cool to pull a Wags or a Plank....or a T210 Jackson ...none of which I will ever afford unless I win the lottery.
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[jchcollins]

I think the concept is very cool, and I admire those who are into high-end unopened - but I don't have near the risk tolerance I would need to play that game myself. I like watching YouTubers who bust unopened vintage like Just Collect, etc. But I would never pay hundreds or thousands of dollars myself to speculate on something like that. I too am leery of the fraud possibilities with that kind of stuff.

[jingram058]

There is no way, zero chance, I would trust ANY pack for sale not to have been tampered with, unless I found it myself in some attic, basement or warehouse. And that's on top of the gamble of some star or HOFer being in the pack. I remember well the good old days of 1967 opening pack after pack after pack to get Mantle.

[gonefishin]

Originally Posted by jingram058

There is no way, zero chance, I would trust ANY pack for sale not to have been tampered with, unless I found it myself in some attic, basement or warehouse. And that's on top of the gamble of some star or HOFer being in the pack. I remember well the good old days of 1967 opening pack after pack after pack to get Mantle.

James, you make some good points. What if you have some vintage, unopened packs, where you are 100% positive of the provenance of where they came? What if the packs were so scare that people thought they never existed? What if you could actually see at least one of the cards in the pack and it is worth 10K plus? What if you had some graded by PSA and they are authentic, graded and sealed?

What would you do? What would anyone else do? I would REALLY like to know.

[packs]

The pack will never have anything as good as what it "could" have inside. I buy the current year Bowman product year after year, open it and get nothing. But if I just didn't open it I'd make three or four times what I paid every time. Alas, I can't help myself.

[jethrod3]

Originally Posted by packs

The pack will never have anything as good as what it "could" have inside. I buy the current year Bowman product year after year, open it and get nothing. But if I just didn't open it I'd make three or four times what I paid every time. Alas, I can't help myself.

As a general rule, I think you are right, but I can never say that a pack would never have anything as good as what it "could" have inside. Case in point: In the late 90's or early 2000's I bought a couple of different unopened packs from reputable sources at a National. One was a 1970 6th Series Topps Baseball pack and the other was a 1986 Fleer Basketball pack. I pulled spectacular Willie Mays and Pete Rose cards from the 1970 pack, and was lucky enough to pull the Jordan card from the 1986 pack. The baseball pulls exceeded my expectation (was thinking I'd just get 1 star card at best--I'd purchased it because it was the first year I started collecting, but never opened a pack myself that year, so I treated myself to the pleasure of opening a 1970 pack) and the Fleer pull met my hopes and dreams as it was the only realistic shot I had at the time of owning a nice Jordan rookie. But generally, yeah, with the priced unopened vintage product is going for these days, it's the equivalent of buying a high-priced lottery ticket.