Black Swamp Find? Tell me more!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

we're talking potentially well over 1000 e98 cards...mostly red. This seems like an awfully large # of cards to me?

As I said, it’s context. If it’s a promotional tool for a store, handing out cards with purchases, 1,000 cards isn’t a weird amount that is going to last all that long. Let’s say they hand them out for 3 months only even. That’s 11 cards a day. 1,000 cards is nothing in 1910. The tobacco sets had print runs into the tens of millions according to Fullgraff’s notes, and those aren’t even the biggest sets.

It is a lot of cards in the context of today, where the vast majority of copies haven’t survived. It’s not a lot for a store to have in ~1910, which appears to be the origin. We should not mistake surviving quantities today with quantities then.

[ullmandds]

i think some of y'all are making assumptions that cannot be substantiated.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i think some of y'all are making assumptions that cannot be substantiated.

Which one?

[ullmandds]

my point is based on the surviving pop of graded e98 around the time of the BSF...the find practically doubled the pop of e98's.

Caramel cards are rare...and were likely printed in much smaller numbers than something like t206.


i believe the BSF contributed an extraordinarily large number of cards to the pop...most of the same color.

This is peculiar.

This is my point. I believe BOB is incorrect in his estimation of 25 examples/card. I remember more like close to 50 each of cobb and wagner.
And I believe 1000+ cards for one store is an extraordinarily large #. If every store got this quantity of cards...there'd be a ton more surviving examples for sure.

just my opinion.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

my point is based on the surviving pop of graded e98 around the time of the BSF...the find practically doubled the pop of e98's.

Caramel cards are rare...and were likely printed in much smaller numbers than something like t206.


i believe the BSF contributed an extraordinarily large number of cards to the pop...most of the same color.

This is peculiar.

This is my point. I believe BOB is incorrect in his estimation of 25 examples/card. I remember more like close to 50 each of cobb and wagner.
And I believe 1000+ cards for one store is an extraordinarily large #. If every store got this quantity of cards...there'd be a ton more surviving examples for sure.

just my opinion.

The population for graded E98s more than doubled since 2012. I posted the numbers even if you account for cards being resubmitted. There were more than 1400 cards in this find. We all know what Heritage graded. And I know someone who had been offered, and essentially passed on, the cards which the other family members held back.

I too think it is absurd to think that a local meat market in a small community would have been given that many cards to hand out. They would have been handing them out well past the retirement of most of those players.

More likely that the owner ended up with them sometime after 1910 by the printer or distributor who had these sitting around in storage.

[edhans]

My recollections: The vast majority of the cards were red backgrounds. The only other color in the find was green. There were no Walsh's and only one Mathewson. All other players were well represented. They were found in stacks of 22 cards, with, of course, multiple stacks of the other 28 players.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by edhans

My recollections: The vast majority of the cards were red backgrounds. The only other color in the find was green. There were no Walsh's and only one Mathewson. All other players were well represented. They were found in stacks of 22 cards, with, of course, multiple stacks of the other 28 players.

Jennings was underrepresented as well.

[CobbSpikedMe]

Originally Posted by edhans

My recollections: The vast majority of the cards were red backgrounds. The only other color in the find was green. There were no Walsh's and only one Mathewson. All other players were well represented. They were found in stacks of 22 cards, with, of course, multiple stacks of the other 28 players.

There were oranges in the find as well. Blue, I'm not sure about but definitely orange.


.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

my point is based on the surviving pop of graded e98 around the time of the BSF...the find practically doubled the pop of e98's.

Caramel cards are rare...and were likely printed in much smaller numbers than something like t206.


i believe the BSF contributed an extraordinarily large number of cards to the pop...most of the same color.

This is peculiar.

This is my point. I believe BOB is incorrect in his estimation of 25 examples/card. I remember more like close to 50 each of cobb and wagner.
And I believe 1000+ cards for one store is an extraordinarily large #. If every store got this quantity of cards...there'd be a ton more surviving examples for sure.

just my opinion.

Pete,

As Edhans said, he heard about 22 per player, right in line with what I had said, about 20-25 per player. All the stories I had seen were talking around 700 or so cards being found, which makes perfect sense when you take the 30 players in the set, less the couple/few that appear to have either been taken to this guy's store and actually distributed/given away, or were for whatever reason not included in the player cards originally given him. You end up with about 27-28 players X 20-25 cards per each, which get you close to that 700+ figure. And maybe there were a couple players with two stacks, so they did have closer to 50 cards, but the large majority of the players in the set that were in this find would have only been in that 20-25 cards per player range, as I said. Having a couple/few players with maybe a second stack of cards in the find gets you even closer to the 700+ or so cards estimated in the stories, but would only be the case for a very few of the players, at most. So the 20-25 cards per player I mentioned is likely accurate for the majority of the players after all.

And then go back to the Strange Inheritance TV show episode, where they actually have the people who originally found the cards on and talking about them. The show host actually mentioned them finding about 800 cards in total in the find, more than once, during the show. Why would a TV show, that has the actual parties that found the cards and who are directly contributing to the show, be giving an incorrect total for the number of cards actually found? I had seen the episode years ago, which showed how the cards of individual players were wrapped in twine or string. You can see from the recreation that there is probably about 20-25 cards or so in each stack or group that were found. There were about 20 or so cousins that all shared in the collection as well, and when it was discussed among everyone what to do with the cards, they decided to split them up in what I guess were equal lots, and then let each of the cousins decide what they wanted to do with their lot. Apparently not every cousin decided right then and there to sell their portion of the cards. Those that did combined and sent their cards off to Heritage to then do a structured sale so as to not completely flood the market all at once. And Pete Calderon at Heritage had Joe Orlando and PSA grade the cards they were given before selling them for the heirs. Those that did not take part in the sale supposedly kept their cards and didn't send them right off to Heritage, and subsequent grading by PSA. I've never heard what actually happened with those cards supposedly kept by some of the cousins. For all I know, they've since been sold/graded, but maybe some are actually still in the hands of a cousin or two. I've assumed that the people and stories I used to hear/read talking about there being 600-700 or so cards in the Find were referring to the cards of the cousins that decided to go ahead and sell right from the beginning through Heritage. That makes perfect sense then if you figure that if the entire find had about 800 cards, each cousin's share would be about 30-40 cards. So, if 2, 3, or 4 of the cousins decided not to sell their cards right away, and kept them instead, that easily gets the 800 or so mentioned as the total Find in the Strange Inheritance TV show down to the 600-700 often mentioned in stories and reports. But nowhere does anyone ever mention there were 1000-1500 cards in this find. So once again I ask, for those that are now saying there was 1000-1500 in this find, where the heck did any of you hear or see that?

Also, as had been mentioned before, stories like this get people's attention in the hobby. Hearing about this find, and the attention it triggered, could also get people that had raw versions of these E98 cards to suddenly start getting them graded as well, to possibly jump in and take advantage of the attention this set was now getting. Just look at the prices these cards were getting, as shown in the Strange Inheritance TV show story. Isn't this exactly what is at times talked about here on the forum how when a card(s) suddenly goes for a big price, it gets other collectors excited and tends to bring similar cards out of the woodwork as others look to now cash in as well? And as some others also mentioned, it is extremely probable that the number of graded E98 cards per population reports are inflated due to various reasons. And also, as was mentioned in different articles and on the TV show, prior to the Black Swamp Find there were no E98 cards graded higher than a 7, and most all the Black Swamp cards were described as being in better condition than that. Well, if you look at the PSA and SGC population reports today, they show a total of 202 E98 cards graded higher than a 7 by SGC, and 704 E98 cards graded higher than a 7 by PSA. That comes to 906 in total between them. And though not in existence until just a couple years back, CSG's population report shows 17 E98 cards have been graded by them that rate higher than a 7, bringing the grand total up to 923 E98s currently graded better than NM 7. And as some have talked about those figures being inflated due to crossovers, wanting to remove the "Black Swamp Find" designation from the flips, and who knows how many some card doctors may have gotten a hold of for resubmission. And there is also the distinct possibility there actually could have been some pristine E98 cards that were raw and in collector's hands, but unknown to the hobby at large prior to the Find, that were brought out into the hobby because of the publicity the Black Swamp Find created. In other words, the 923 figure for graded E98 cards higher than a 7 grade doesn't really seem to be out of line with there having been about 700-800 cards in the Black Swamp Find after all, assuming there are some inflated population report numbers for these graded E98s after all.

If you have or know of other information, articles, data or logical explanations as to there being 1000-1500 of these cards in the Black Swamp Find after all, would love to see/hear it/them.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by BobC

But nowhere does anyone ever mention there were 1000-1500 cards in this find. So once again I ask, for those that are now saying there was 1000-1500 in this find, where the heck did any of you hear or see that?

If you have or know of other information, articles, data or logical explanations as to there being 1000-1500 of these cards in the Black Swamp Find after all, would love to see/hear it/them.

Hi Bob,

As I have posted twice, there were more cards in the find than what was disclosed by anyone giving interviews. The part of the family who sold initially opted to have Heritage let the hobby know up front how many cards were available for sale rather than have Heritage submit these slowly over the years. Maybe the other family members preferred to have the cards as opposed to the money and 7 years later changed their minds???

Clearly looking at the population reports in 2023 on the E98 set with SGC and PSA numbers have blown up showing 4,000 cards graded and even if we decide that cards were submitted more than once and/or possibly broken out of one holder and sent to the other grading service, that still adds up to a lot more than the original find as being the only cards from the find. If PSA had graded 628 E98s up until the find, let's say SGC had graded 700. That leaves roughly 2,700 E98s submitted between 2012 and 2023. If 750 of those were from Heritage that leaves roughly 2,000 more E98s to go to those TPGers.

I had great interest in the find because I was hoping to add the lower graded Hall of Famers from the find to my own collection. One interview did include a vague reference that could have been interpreted two different ways suggesting there might be more cards. Nobody followed up on it or maybe they tried and it was shutdown because the focus was on what Heritage was bringing to auction.

It is really not my place to go into details but I spoke with the dealer who was initially part of the deal buying out the back half of the collection and his words to me were that there was a larger quantity of cards in the back half of the collection than in the portion which Heritage offered for sale.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Hi Bob,

As I have posted twice, there were more cards in the find than what was disclosed by anyone giving interviews. The part of the family who sold initially opted to have Heritage let the hobby know up front how many cards were available for sale rather than have Heritage submit these slowly over the years. Maybe the other family members preferred to have the cards as opposed to the money and 7 years later changed their minds???

Clearly looking at the population reports in 2023 on the E98 set with SGC and PSA numbers have blown up showing 4,000 cards graded and even if we decide that cards were submitted more than once and/or possibly broken out of one holder and sent to the other grading service, that still adds up to a lot more than the original find as being the only cards from the find. If PSA had graded 628 E98s up until the find, let's say SGC had graded 700. That leaves roughly 2,700 E98s submitted between 2012 and 2023. If 750 of those were from Heritage that leaves roughly 2,000 more E98s to go to those TPGers.

I had great interest in the find because I was hoping to add the lower graded Hall of Famers from the find to my own collection. One interview did include a vague reference that could have been interpreted two different ways suggesting there might be more cards. Nobody followed up on it or maybe they tried and it was shutdown because the focus was on what Heritage was bringing to auction.

It is really not my place to go into details but I spoke with the dealer who was initially part of the deal buying out the back half of the collection and his words to me were that there was a larger quantity of cards in the back half of the collection than in the portion which Heritage offered for sale.

Okay, so you're saying there were way more cards, but pretty much everyone kept it secret as to how many there were, and are still doing it for the most part, despite there now really being no reason to not come out with the truth? And you're also saying that the stories about all these cards from the Find being pretty much pristine and in great condition is not true either? Otherwise, shouldn't there be way more E98 graded cards today in the 8-9-10 grades?

I don't doubt what you're telling the truth as you know it, but why all the friggin' secrecy? If the family that inherited the cards were so worried about possibly killing the market for them if they were all released at once, then why did they release the nicest condition cards first? If someone were sitting on that big of a collection, wouldn't it make more sense to want to slowly start and release some of the lower condition cards first? If the previous highest graded E98 cards ever graded had only been 7s, release some of the cards that were in the 5-6-7 range first. People would pay top dollar for those cards as they were close to the known highest condition E98 cards out there at that time. And then slowly in the coming months/years, progressively release some of the nicer and nicer cards as you go along, and try to hold onto the 9s and 10s till the last. Here's a case where going to someone like Heritage probably works against you. Despite them saying they were releasing these cards over time to maximize income to the family, I think it was more of Heritage wanting to get the word out about these cards and maximize money for themselves, in a short time frame. Of course, members of the family could have easily gone along and wanted to quickly max out what money they could receive from this inheritance as well, and that does make perfect sense and help justify what I think was otherwise maybe bad advice from Heritage on how to handle this Find. But is still doesn't even begin to explain why no one would eventually mention how many cards there really were in this Find then, unless that was part of the hold back and delay releasing them into the hobby tactic, to hopefully maximize and get even more money by spreading out the release of the cards and not letting people know how many there truly were. But again, if you're using that logic and thinking, why sell all the higher condition cards first? If someone just sold a couple first ever seen E98s graded 8, and they bring in record prices for E98 cards, just think what a couple 9s would then bring in the following year or so.

But you're certain that there were a lot more E98 cards in the find, and that there was a different dealer involved in buying a good chunk of the balance of the Find from the family. Okay, but the fact that I've never heard or seen anything about this before in any published articles or stories, and even you are hesitant to name the dealer involved in this so-called sale/purchase, just makes the whole thing seem really sketchy. You're basically saying to just believe the story on almost pure faith, with the only potential evidence to help support the claim being the number of E98 cards that are now graded. Even though the increased number of E98 cards being graded after the Black Swamp Find could also possibly be attributed to more people getting their E98 cards graded following the buzz and excitement of the Black Swamp Find, likely aided by many people now looking to possibly cash in on the prices these new to market E98s were bringing in, as well as just the natural increase/addition to the number of E98 cards that would have been sent in for grading anyway. It's not like people aren't constantly submitting other never before graded pre-war cards during this past decade or so either. I can see the underlying logic to the argument, but without really knowing the accurate number of E98 cards that were in the Black Swamp Find, and why there seems to be so much secrecy still around that, it is somewhat hard to solely attribute the graded card increase to primarily the Black Swamp Find alone. Something doesn't smell right, there shouldn't be all this secrecy about the number of cards in the Find, at least it hasn't been necessary for any reason I can think of for quite a few years now. Like ai said, I don't doubt you at all, but something still doesn't make sense to me. Oh well.