The Dangers of "Prospecting" and its Impact on Vintage

[notfast]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Why on earth would anybody spend 50K on a 37th round draft pick out of college, who hasn't done anything of note in the minors.

Almost seems made up.

About 10+ years ago, I filled up a decent sized storage locker with a vintage memorabilia buy from an auction house for a lot less then 50K...an looooooooot less. Made my money back many times over, and still sell stuff off from that buy on a regular basis.

37th round out of HS which he didnt sign. Then in 2020 he was the #5 overall pick.

Still dumb $ but he was a top guy.

[bbcard1]

I generally avoid commenting on these threads because it seems like we're saying "don't like things I don't like" but there is a different mindset to these collectors / investors. Say what you might about their strategy, they have brought a lot of attention to cards.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by notfast

37th round out of HS which he didnt sign. Then in 2020 he was the #5 overall pick.

Still dumb $ but he was a top guy.

Ah gotcha, didn't notice that. Had a nice 21 game run in Fall ball last year, but not much else.

[2dueces]

Most here are collectors. This guys is a flipper. Huge difference. He wasn’t putting that Martin card in a safety deposit box for his children. He was looking to cash in and speculate some more.
We as collectors ( most of the time collectors) look at $50k and wonder what we can add to our collection.
If people are willing to pay millions for fake 1 of 1’s of Lebron James than celebrate the hobby is alive and well.

[Tyruscobb]

Surely, the buyer was confused. He probably thought he was buying a used 2011 Aston Martin for $50,000.00, which is about the right price, and not an 2021 Austin Martin card.

These modern collectors/investors are crazy. They are purchasing cards that are priced as if the player will win X number of championships, Y number of MVPs, and will finish their careers not only as hall of famers, but inter sanctum hall of famers at that.

I’ll stick to boring vintage. Cobb and Mantle aren’t having bad seasons, potentially sustaining season or career ending injuries, or being accused of sexually assaulting women.

[abothebear]

I have recently looked into prospecting a little bit, but hyper-focused on my fan interest, and not more than $20. What I have been wondering about is where is the sweet spot? You have 1/1s/3/5s and the like that are way too expensive to take a risk on buying. And even so, there are, for any given prospect, 20 different RC that come in those low-number versions. And step that up to the 20 / 50 / 99, level, and their 20 different issues, Then there are the 300 - 1000 numbered versions, and then the unnumbered but quantifiably less (like the unnumbered auto versions). Where is that prospecting sweet spot of low-risk entry point but still a chance for return? For instance, I see that you can find RCs of prospects that hit 8 years ago for under $200. What were these cards being sold for eight years ago? $200 doesn't seem like a return in value based on what people are paying for prospects right now. If you pay $200 for a 1/50 card and the prospect turns into a near immediate all-star, will the value even go up? Are people prospecting in hopes they'll b HOFers 25 years from now? Because that doesn't make sense. I'd like to get a card of a young pitcher in my team's system. I have good reason to believe he'll be a fun sensation of sorts. Yet pitchers are terrible investments, especially now that they don't even pitch 5 innings. There may never be another pitcher to be elected to the HOF once this nearly retiring generation is through. But let's suppose he does hit, and in 5 years is a top 3 pitcher in the mlb, and has a trajectory that could spell HOF. What cards would I want to have prospected on that would be paying off? Would the 1/300s, which I could get for $20 right now be anything?

I'm not looking for answers (unless you have some), just pointing out another layer to the prospecting game. The risk/reward is so out of whack that it is a wonder the market functions the way it does. But maybe there is a sweet spot where it can make a little bit of sense, especially if you have a fan investment of the player too. But I'm not sure where that sweet spot is.