PSA market data

[Fred]

I can predict a pre-war card market drop. If anyone wants to know when, just let me know, I'll be happy to provide the date/time it will start.

When you see me selling cards, then watch the market drop about 40% or more in a single day...

edited to add, this is my Zager and Evans post!

[Republicaninmass]

As with any market, we see the most volatile assets drop first and fastest, the blue chips will lag but will suffer, likely not as bad

[EddieP]

Interesting, but this is just a blip in time. In an ideal world, you’d collect data/prices when the first cards were first created and follow them to today’s data/prices. This avoids selectively choosing peaks and valleys of card prices. Outside of this, everything is speculation on everyone’s part.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by EddieP

Interesting, but this is just a blip in time. In an ideal world, you’d collect data/prices when the first cards were first created and follow them to today’s data/prices. This avoids selectively choosing peaks and valleys of card prices. Outside of this, everything is speculation on everyone’s part.

yes...but this "ideal" scenario you outline is not possible to create?

[EddieP]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

yes...but this "ideal" scenario you outline is not possible to create?

Not possible to create, that’s true. But to me, better data would be obtained from the time period were card prices/sales were first recorded and preserved. Heck, even data from 5 years back would have much more meaning. The further back the data yields a higher “N” ( i.e. total population in the research sense) which leads to more realistic results.

I’m guessing you’re a dentist, but as you know there’s a reason why medical researchers put more credence in studies that lasted decades rather one that lasted just months ( e.g. Framingham). Stock analysts apply this same concept. And if people are equating cards to stocks then this should hold true as well.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by EddieP

Not possible to create, that’s true. But to me, better data would be obtained from the time period were card prices/sales were first recorded and preserved. Heck, even data from 5 years back would have much more meaning. The further back the data yields a higher “N” ( i.e. total population in the research sense) which leads to more realistic results.

I’m guessing you’re a dentist, but as you know there’s a reason why medical researchers put more credence in studies that lasted decades rather one that lasted just months ( e.g. Framingham). Stock analysts apply this same concept. And if people are equating cards to stocks then this should hold true as well.

i certainly agree with you regarding quality of data...and yes...i'm a dentist. I just think it's funny how many want sports card collecting to be a pure..."perfect" marketplace...but it can never be. There are too many variables...combined with all data not being known/available.

Sooooooo...we just have to live with the data we have.

And...maybe...baseball cards shouldn't be viewed quite so much as stocks????

[EddieP]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

And...maybe...baseball cards shouldn't be viewed quite so much as stocks????

Bing, bing, bing. You hit the jack pot. There just not enough volume in sales to accurately predict ( notice I said predict) a card’s price.

[Rascal1010]

I was actually buying quite a few football cards (1950-80's) for my son's collection over the last 6 months, and can honestly say for a good part of them I was paying 2017-18 prices and getting them bought. There were a few that were a little stronger, but it appeared to me that this vintage of card had lost most if not all of the "COVID" gains they experienced and are settling into a price point they were in roughly 7-8 years ago. I think this is going to be pretty standard across the industry, some segments are just going to take a little longer to get back to these price points, but pricing seems to be settling at these price points for now anyway. Not sure Vintage baseball will go back to these price points, but do look for them to drop some value and have some correction, especially when talking lesser stars and more common cards from this era.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i certainly agree with you regarding quality of data...and yes...i'm a dentist. I just think it's funny how many want sports card collecting to be a pure..."perfect" marketplace...but it can never be. There are too many variables...combined with all data not being known/available.

Sooooooo...we just have to live with the data we have.

And...maybe...baseball cards shouldn't be viewed quite so much as stocks????

Yes, not much at all like stocks.

For a lot of the time card collecting has been a thing there was very little price data, and what we had was fractured and mostly unreliable.
The ACC and whenever it came out, sales lists and results from a handful of people who bought and sold.
Followed by the Sports collectors bible in 1975? And its update. Plus a few more regular publications.
The annual Becketts started in 77 or 78, and the first monthly pricing magazines a year or two after that.

But those are only monthly pricing.

It's only been since Ebay began that we commonly had easy access to more timely data. And only since some of the automated price tracking sites started that it's been collected in a really easy format.

I don't know when the place Peter got that from began, but I suspect it's within the last couple years.