I'll go a little contrarian here and suggest that the problem was the reserve. For some reason, when there's a reserve, it spooks bidders, sometimes in major ways. It destroys the flow of the auction. It disrupts those animal spirits with everyone trying to out-stupid each other. That big jump throws people off. All of a sudden, they sit back, reflect, and start to wonder if it's really a good idea to bid that much.
For example, I remember last year there was a nice 1952 Bowman PSA 9 Mays up for auction. The bidding was fast and furious, and got up to $100k or so (plus the juice, natch). A couple of days before the auction closed, the reserve kicked in, and jumped the next required bid up to $200k ($240k with the juice).
At that point, the entire dynamic of the auction changed. Nobody bid on it again. It had been going fast and furious, people bidding left and right. I bet if the reserve had not kicked in, it would have easily sold for more than $200k. But when that reserve kicked in, it probably confused some bidders, and spooked the rest. So it didn't sell, because no one touched it after the reserve kicked in.
A couple months later, the same card comes up at the same auction house. Not just the same grade. The exact same card. I'm thinking that maybe I can score a bargain. This time, no reserve.
Care to guess what happens? People go nuts. No reserve holding anyone back. In the last couple of days, it doubles, and then doubles again. With the juice, it goes for $444k.
Now, you could argue that the difference of a month or two might have made a difference. Since we're talking about late 2021 and early 2022, I would posit that any difference wouldn't be gigantic. Certainly not $200k worth.
For my money, having (or not having) a reserve made all the difference.
If you want to see the card, here's the auction listing where it sold:
https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515
01-27-2023, 08:33 AM
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