Auctions I lost - 10 years later

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I note that the increase to HOFers is consistently very large compared to the sale in 2013, like 4x minimum. Commons have increased, but not nearly as much as HOFers

Yes, if these numbers are right, 10 years ago a 33G Ruth was worth 50 times a common card, now it is 120 times. What that implies is there are more buyers now that are not hard-core collectors, and therefore not interested in commons. If that is true, we can expect more volatility in Ruth and other stars, as those buyers are more likely to be "investors", and not as attached to their cards.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Yes, if these numbers are right, 10 years ago a 33G Ruth was worth 50 times a common card, now it is 120 times. What that implies is there are more buyers now that are not hard-core collectors, and therefore not interested in commons. If that is true, we can expect more volatility in Ruth and other stars, as those buyers are more likely to be "investors", and not as attached to their cards.

I would respectfully disagree with your premise. I consider myself a diehard collector (being mindful of the investment side), but I’ve only ever focused on HOFers. I just wanted to collect the guys I could read books about. I don’t believe you have to be a set builder to be considered a hard core collector. The investment only guys are certainly driving that discrepancy in prices, no doubt, but probably not exclusively.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I would respectfully disagree with your premise. I consider myself a diehard collector (being mindful of the investment side), but I’ve only ever focused on HOFers. I just wanted to collect the guys I could read books about. I don’t believe you have to be a set builder to be considered a hard core collector. The investment only guys are certainly driving that discrepancy in prices, no doubt, but probably not exclusively.

+1

[alywa]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I would respectfully disagree with your premise. I consider myself a diehard collector (being mindful of the investment side), but I’ve only ever focused on HOFers. I just wanted to collect the guys I could read books about. I don’t believe you have to be a set builder to be considered a hard core collector. The investment only guys are certainly driving that discrepancy in prices, no doubt, but probably not exclusively.

+1. I've built a number of classic sets, but my real interest lies in the HOFers and I focus almost exclusively on them now

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I would respectfully disagree with your premise. I consider myself a diehard collector (being mindful of the investment side), but I’ve only ever focused on HOFers. I just wanted to collect the guys I could read books about. I don’t believe you have to be a set builder to be considered a hard core collector. The investment only guys are certainly driving that discrepancy in prices, no doubt, but probably not exclusively.

When it comes to pre-war you don't have to be a set builder to be a hard core collector, but you have to be a hard core collector to be a set builder.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

When it comes to pre-war you don't have to be a set builder to be a hard core collector, but you have to be a hard core collector to be a set builder.

Ha. Yes. Well put. This sounds like an SAT logic question.

[Rhotchkiss]

Sam, good to see you post, it’s been a while.

I take the higher multiples on HOFers to means what it shows - HOFers are more desirable than commons. I expect the multiple will continue, since only set builders want commons but HOFers appeal to everyone

[Fred]

When I think of all the auctions lots I was underbidder on or near the top (but lost) from over 10 years ago, I kind of laugh and figure it would have put me closer to retirement if I did pull the trigger, but then I look at the cards/memorabilia I did come away with and don't feel so bad.

If you've been in this hobby for a few decades, you've probably scored so much good stuff at comparably low prices when considering the recent valuations. I feel sorry for people that are just getting into vintage card collecting now because the dollars today just don't go near as far as they did a decade or more ago.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Fred

When I think of all the auctions lots I was underbidder on or near the top (but lost) from over 10 years ago, I kind of laugh and figure it would have put me closer to retirement if I did pull the trigger, but then I look at the cards/memorabilia I did come away with and don't feel so bad.

If you've been in this hobby for a few decades, you've probably scored so much good stuff at comparably low prices when considering the recent valuations. I feel sorry for people that are just getting into vintage card collecting now because the dollars today just don't go near as far as they did a decade or more ago.

add 20 years, rinse, repeat.

[ParisianJohn]

Originally Posted by Fred

When I think of all the auctions lots I was underbidder on or near the top (but lost) from over 10 years ago, I kind of laugh and figure it would have put me closer to retirement if I did pull the trigger, but then I look at the cards/memorabilia I did come away with and don't feel so bad.

If you've been in this hobby for a few decades, you've probably scored so much good stuff at comparably low prices when considering the recent valuations. I feel sorry for people that are just getting into vintage card collecting now because the dollars today just don't go near as far as they did a decade or more ago.

I'd have to take a deeper dive but from some numbers in this thread and my own experiences it feels like the T206 portraits have really increased in value (even for commons) more than other cards in the set.

All HOFers have spiked but the elite among the HOFers (Cobb, Ruth, Johnson, Young) have done so at insane rates. This makes T206 HOFer portraits nuts and elite HOFer portraits really isane from that set.

And yes, a decade ago and longer I did come away with some good purchases but I never won a 1933 Goudey Ruth!!! Back then I would only buy a card if it had the eye appeal of at least a 3 to me (even if ungraded) but now I wish I'd lowered my standards - or raised my bids.

[StraightRaceCards]

Originally Posted by Fred

When I think of all the auctions lots I was underbidder on or near the top (but lost) from over 10 years ago, I kind of laugh and figure it would have put me closer to retirement if I did pull the trigger, but then I look at the cards/memorabilia I did come away with and don't feel so bad.

If you've been in this hobby for a few decades, you've probably scored so much good stuff at comparably low prices when considering the recent valuations. I feel sorry for people that are just getting into vintage card collecting now because the dollars today just don't go near as far as they did a decade or more ago.

Darn, that is me. Too bad my childhood 90’s junk wax didn’t pay off!

It has been hard getting into the hobby in 2021, with prices skyrocketing.

I wished I started before I had a wife, kids, and now we are house hunting. Not a good time for me, but one of the upsides is savoring each card I get a lot more now. My banged up t206 Matty portrait means a whole lot more to me now than if I had bought it way earlier.

Other bright side (at least I tell myself), is that ignorance is bliss and all I know are current market prices!

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Sam, good to see you post, it’s been a while.

I take the higher multiples on HOFers to means what it shows - HOFers are more desirable than commons. I expect the multiple will continue, since only set builders want commons but HOFers appeal to everyone

Yeah Ryan, with all due respect, that's not quite right. I doubt very much the increase in relative multiples is across all HOFers. It is only a small subset of the Tier 1 HOF players. So it is not the OG HOF collectors that is driving this. It's not even an influx of new HOF collectors. It is more likely that new money is coming into the market and it is mostly buying at the top.

[oldjudge]

$1000 put into the stock market in 2013 is worth $3000 today so aside from the Ruth the cards have performed just like equities.

[Rhotchkiss]

I don’t consider M Brown a Tier 1 HOFer, and your chart indicates his cards are up 3.5x - 4x since 2013. That is an awesome return. Looking on VCP at some other t206s of players I consider in the same general tier as M Brown (like tier 3), I get the following - trying to use similar month 2022 and 2013 and using PSA 5 unless there is no 2022 comp:

T206 Joss Portrait PSA 5: 6/13 @ $412 vs 12/22 @ $1,476 - 3.58x multiple
T206 Keeler Port PSA 5: 9/13 @ $592 vs 9/22 @ $2,520 - 4.25x multiple
T206 Evers Portrait PSA 4: 2/13 @ $385 vs 11/22 @ $2,520 - 6.5x multiple
T206 Walsh Portrait PSA 5: 10/13 @ $495 vs 10/23 @ $3,330 - 6.7x multiple
T206 Waddell Port PSA 5: 3/13 @ $416 vs 5/22 @ $1,830 - 4.4x multiple

This is decent evidence that less than tier 1 HOFers have seen great multiples; not Cobb or Ruthian results, but “out of the ballpark” returns nonetheless. Everyone wants HOFers. Only set builders and player collectors want commons. They are common. HOFers are extraordinary. The latter attracts everyone.

Regardless, I fully agree with your larger point - you would be in great shape today had you won all those cards in 2013!!

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I take the higher multiples on HOFers to means what it shows - HOFers are more desirable than commons. I expect the multiple will continue, since only set builders want commons but HOFers appeal to everyone

Ryan, it is not only set builders who want commons. There are many collectors who collect certain teams. I collect cards of all the players, HOFers and commons, who were on the 1924 Washington Senators WS Championship team.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I would respectfully disagree with your premise. I consider myself a diehard collector (being mindful of the investment side), but I’ve only ever focused on HOFers. I just wanted to collect the guys I could read books about. I don’t believe you have to be a set builder to be considered a hard core collector. The investment only guys are certainly driving that discrepancy in prices, no doubt, but probably not exclusively.

My wording may have been a little muddy. The point I was trying to make is that when a Babe Ruth card goes from being worth 2 Ted Willams cards to 5 Ted Williams cards, (or from 50 commom cards to 120 common cards) there is something going on in the market, and it is not being driven by hard-core collectors, whether you are a set builder or a HOF collector.

As Ryan pointed out, a lot of HOF cards have gone up 4x or 5x in the last 10 years.

Commons that I used to pay $1 each for are now $5, so those have gone up 5x too. I bet Ryan can confirm that common T206 cards have increased by about the same.

But Ruth's mid-grade 33G cards have gone up 20x since 2013, while Williams' 39PB has increased only 6x. Why is that?



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[brianp-beme]

This is a sales list from Lew Lipset from around 1985 or so. I am proud to say that I resisted the temptation to purchase any of these overpriced pieces of cardboard.

Brian

[ALBB]

Yea, good for you. Highway robbery on those ! LOL