Auctions I lost - 10 years later

[Rhotchkiss]

I note that the increase to HOFers is consistently very large compared to the sale in 2013, like 4x minimum. Commons have increased, but not nearly as much as HOFers

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I note that the increase to HOFers is consistently very large compared to the sale in 2013, like 4x minimum. Commons have increased, but not nearly as much as HOFers

Yes, if these numbers are right, 10 years ago a 33G Ruth was worth 50 times a common card, now it is 120 times. What that implies is there are more buyers now that are not hard-core collectors, and therefore not interested in commons. If that is true, we can expect more volatility in Ruth and other stars, as those buyers are more likely to be "investors", and not as attached to their cards.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Yes, if these numbers are right, 10 years ago a 33G Ruth was worth 50 times a common card, now it is 120 times. What that implies is there are more buyers now that are not hard-core collectors, and therefore not interested in commons. If that is true, we can expect more volatility in Ruth and other stars, as those buyers are more likely to be "investors", and not as attached to their cards.

I would respectfully disagree with your premise. I consider myself a diehard collector (being mindful of the investment side), but I’ve only ever focused on HOFers. I just wanted to collect the guys I could read books about. I don’t believe you have to be a set builder to be considered a hard core collector. The investment only guys are certainly driving that discrepancy in prices, no doubt, but probably not exclusively.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I would respectfully disagree with your premise. I consider myself a diehard collector (being mindful of the investment side), but I’ve only ever focused on HOFers. I just wanted to collect the guys I could read books about. I don’t believe you have to be a set builder to be considered a hard core collector. The investment only guys are certainly driving that discrepancy in prices, no doubt, but probably not exclusively.

+1

[alywa]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I would respectfully disagree with your premise. I consider myself a diehard collector (being mindful of the investment side), but I’ve only ever focused on HOFers. I just wanted to collect the guys I could read books about. I don’t believe you have to be a set builder to be considered a hard core collector. The investment only guys are certainly driving that discrepancy in prices, no doubt, but probably not exclusively.

+1. I've built a number of classic sets, but my real interest lies in the HOFers and I focus almost exclusively on them now

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I would respectfully disagree with your premise. I consider myself a diehard collector (being mindful of the investment side), but I’ve only ever focused on HOFers. I just wanted to collect the guys I could read books about. I don’t believe you have to be a set builder to be considered a hard core collector. The investment only guys are certainly driving that discrepancy in prices, no doubt, but probably not exclusively.

When it comes to pre-war you don't have to be a set builder to be a hard core collector, but you have to be a hard core collector to be a set builder.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

When it comes to pre-war you don't have to be a set builder to be a hard core collector, but you have to be a hard core collector to be a set builder.

Ha. Yes. Well put. This sounds like an SAT logic question.

[Rhotchkiss]

Sam, good to see you post, it’s been a while.

I take the higher multiples on HOFers to means what it shows - HOFers are more desirable than commons. I expect the multiple will continue, since only set builders want commons but HOFers appeal to everyone

[Fred]

When I think of all the auctions lots I was underbidder on or near the top (but lost) from over 10 years ago, I kind of laugh and figure it would have put me closer to retirement if I did pull the trigger, but then I look at the cards/memorabilia I did come away with and don't feel so bad.

If you've been in this hobby for a few decades, you've probably scored so much good stuff at comparably low prices when considering the recent valuations. I feel sorry for people that are just getting into vintage card collecting now because the dollars today just don't go near as far as they did a decade or more ago.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Sam, good to see you post, it’s been a while.

I take the higher multiples on HOFers to means what it shows - HOFers are more desirable than commons. I expect the multiple will continue, since only set builders want commons but HOFers appeal to everyone

Yeah Ryan, with all due respect, that's not quite right. I doubt very much the increase in relative multiples is across all HOFers. It is only a small subset of the Tier 1 HOF players. So it is not the OG HOF collectors that is driving this. It's not even an influx of new HOF collectors. It is more likely that new money is coming into the market and it is mostly buying at the top.

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I take the higher multiples on HOFers to means what it shows - HOFers are more desirable than commons. I expect the multiple will continue, since only set builders want commons but HOFers appeal to everyone

Ryan, it is not only set builders who want commons. There are many collectors who collect certain teams. I collect cards of all the players, HOFers and commons, who were on the 1924 Washington Senators WS Championship team.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I would respectfully disagree with your premise. I consider myself a diehard collector (being mindful of the investment side), but I’ve only ever focused on HOFers. I just wanted to collect the guys I could read books about. I don’t believe you have to be a set builder to be considered a hard core collector. The investment only guys are certainly driving that discrepancy in prices, no doubt, but probably not exclusively.

My wording may have been a little muddy. The point I was trying to make is that when a Babe Ruth card goes from being worth 2 Ted Willams cards to 5 Ted Williams cards, (or from 50 commom cards to 120 common cards) there is something going on in the market, and it is not being driven by hard-core collectors, whether you are a set builder or a HOF collector.

As Ryan pointed out, a lot of HOF cards have gone up 4x or 5x in the last 10 years.

Commons that I used to pay $1 each for are now $5, so those have gone up 5x too. I bet Ryan can confirm that common T206 cards have increased by about the same.

But Ruth's mid-grade 33G cards have gone up 20x since 2013, while Williams' 39PB has increased only 6x. Why is that?



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[brianp-beme]

This is a sales list from Lew Lipset from around 1985 or so. I am proud to say that I resisted the temptation to purchase any of these overpriced pieces of cardboard.

Brian

[ALBB]

Yea, good for you. Highway robbery on those ! LOL