Interesting read

[BobC]

Originally Posted by cubman1941

I subscribe to Adam's Card Blog and this was his entry for today - in line with other discussions in other Net54 Forums -

"What got me thinking was a very interesting piece that ran on Sports Collectors Daily recently, an interview with Chris McGill, the Co-Founder of Card Ladder. In case you don’t know it, Card Ladder is a data aggregating service that scrapes prices on select cards from eBay, auctioneers and so on, and produces recent sales reports for its members. What caught my eye was this quote from the article:
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Card Ladder’s 3,946 card vintage index (comprised of cards issued between 1946 and 1983) is down 5% over the last year. …. In the context of Card Ladder’s 24 other indexes, vintage has performed 6th best over the last year, trailing only Pre-War Vintage (+29%), Tennis (+19%), Outlier (+16%), Hockey (+7%), and Baseball (-1%).”
I quibble with calling anything post-1980 vintage, but I digress.
Where is modern? According to the article, modern is down over 30% for the year. One reason McGill suggested in the article:
“…my anecdotal observation is that the Modern and Ultra-Modern markets became overheated by a subset of folks focused on speculation and flipping over the last few years. Many of them seem to have left the industry this year, causing prices to fall.”
He then went on to point out that modern has outperformed vintage over the last five years by a substantial margin:
Ultra-Modern: +639%
Modern: +744%
Vintage: +270%
Pre-War Vintage: 340%
In other words, modern is a bubble, and it is deflating fast. Bubbles pop and when they do, you lose the most valuable commodity you have: time. Lose a decade on the growth of an investment and you can never make it up. I think it has a long way to go before the modern market bottoms out. Judging from the lessons of the junk wax era, I think when it bottoms it will be there for a good, long time.
This is a cycle we’ve seen before, so why do people keep falling for it?
One potential reason is that the modern card production and sales mechanism, while different than the past mechanism, has inherent flaws that allow the middlemen to systemically screw retail participants and actual collectors. I think they shed light on why modern is a giant sucker bet right now.
The first issue is marketing. The modern card world is driven by unopened material breaks and moves through social media, where influencers are the kings of hype. These spastically energetic live streams and videos feature obnoxious modern card cheerleaders opening packs and boxes and cases on air and going batshit crazy when a valuable insert card is uncovered. Many of them also sell cards, unopened material, and slots to customers in breaks. You either pay a fee for a random slot assigned at the time of the break or you bid competitively to win all cards from a team that emerge in the break. The idea of the latter is that if you buy, say, the Lakers, you may get a valuable LeBron James insert card.
What has become apparent now that there is a track record is that publicity breaks often feature a stunning array of ‘golden ticket” cards. It has been observed (there is a thread on Blowout about this) that certain very popular breakers pull very valuable inserts so often that it is all but mathematically impossible. Very suspicious, but no hard evidence of wrongdoing. But think about this: if these guys pull the 1/1 Logoman and the other big cards, then the top prizes aren’t out there for the average box purchaser to find. Take those top prizes off the table and the value equation on unopened modern unopened changes dramatically for the worse. With so many of the super-limited cards ending up in the hands of professionals, it makes me wonder how legitimate the retail modern unopened market is.
The other issue of note is that there is a scandal brewing on Panini cards that is either intentionally created or that resulted from genuinely stupid planning. This one is empirically proven. Apparently, the holographic authenticity stickers on the fronts of Panini basketball product boxes (and perhaps other products too) are coded differently if the boxes have the very expensive Kaboom inserts in them. Breakers who have cracked the code can open a case, remove the box(es) with the hot inserts, and sell the rest as box breaks knowing that the customers who buy into these remaining box breaks have no chance of receiving the valuable insert cards. How widespread this situation is depends entirely on how many people can crack the code.
One thing is clear: paid breaks are economically terrible for almost everyone. Dealers sell unopened and do breaks because the odds favor the dealers; it is far more profitable to a dealer to sell boxes or break slots than to actually shuck the cards out of the packs themselves and sell the good ones at retail. If the opposite was true, the dealers would just do the latter. Yet people still spend a ton on breaks, despite empirically bad outcomes. Another example of magical thinking in the hobby.
In my view, these issues are part of what has gradually poisoned the modern market and is part of the decline in that market. In my view, the only safe choice is to not buy unopened modern, and especially stay out of breaks. If you just have to scratch that itch, buy a case from a legitimate retailer, not a box, because boxes are suspect for the reasons noted above.
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Thanks for sharing. That is an unbelievably insightful, and IMO extremely accurate, commentary on the state of the hobby in regards to the modern card market. On some levels it sort of mimics aspects of other situations, like the crypto market and the current implosion that entire industry seems to be facing right now. I've always wondered why the modern card collectors so easily bought into the idea of manufactured rarities, and elevated their value with really nothing behind them. Especially when after a card manufacturing sells one 1 of 1 card, they simply create another new 1 of 1 to sell to someone else.

The idea/concept originally started/carried through with GUs and autographed cards as well. Those started out great, until you eventually end up with literally hundreds (or even thousands) of different GU/autographed cards of every player. There are so many GU cards of the likes of Mantle, Ruth, and other superstar/HOF players out there, along with all the then current common players, how would anyone in their right mind expect the values of those initially rare GU/auto cards to remain so high when the card manufacturers just seemed to keep producing more and more and more of them? And then, the card manufacturers simply moved on from the cost/work/trouble of producing limited GU and autographed cards, and simply started printing just limited numbered runs, or even 1 0f 1 cards. Now they didn't even have to worry about finding bats or jerseys used/worn by players, or figuring out how to get cards actually signed by players. Anyone want to take a guess between all the modern card manufacturers how many different 1 0f 1 cards in total actually exist today? And then compare that to the number of true 1 of 1 cards still existing in the real vintage and pre-war card sectors.

Look at crypto (or even NFTs), same basic idea/concept. Someone comes up with an original idea of just one, limited version of a cryptocurrency, and for whatever reason, it seems to take off. So naturally when it does make someone some money, you know others will quickly follow to create more and more cryptocurrencies of their own to take further advantage of an unsuspecting public that doesn't really know better, and cash in for themselves. And look where that market is today and seems to be heading to in the not so distant future.

And as for market manipulation, perfect example was a few years back in Ohtani's rookie year. A friend and former co-worker of mine that also partly owns a well-known online Breaking company told me about one of the upcoming products releases from Bowman. Apparently, it was advertised in advance that there was going to be an Ohtani rookie card included in this release, which I think was supposed to be a 1 of 1. He told me about two weeks prior to the product's actual release that it had come out through some online sources that were supposedly acting on behalf of an anonymous person/collector, that if anyone pulled that particular Ohtani card, they would pay something like $60,000 for it, as long as the card ended up grading as at least a 9.5, and they were offered it by a certain date. So, I asked my friend how many cases of this particular product did he and his Breaking company partner already order and commit to buy. He just laughed and answered, not enough! Never did hear or see any follow-up stories on what happened after that product was released, and if someone did pull that Ohtani card and get paid the $60K for it that was supposedly offered. The entire thing sounded to me like a contrived marketing ploy to get unsuspecting people to buy a particular product thinking they had a chance for a big payday. Doesn't seem like much has really changed in the marketplace.

https://sports.yahoo.com/shohei-ohta...044305844.html

And here's a really dumb question maybe, why would it matter what a card that is a 1 of 1 be graded at to better determine its value? I can understand a lowered value if it got chewed up by a dog or otherwise damaged/trashed somehow, but if it really is the only one in existence, why would it only be worth the original $60K if it graded 9.5 or higher? A 9.0 would be worth less? That makes absolutely no sense at all to me.

And here is what did end up happening with that Ohtani card.

https://www.beckett.com/news/2018-bo...h-tops-184000/

Also, anyone surprised the card in question wasn't apparently found/pulled till after the originally imposed deadline date for the initial $60K offer?

And as has been stated by some people in the hobby (and even on this forum), the idea of TPGs and the card grades they hand out may also be a vehicle for others in the card industry (dealers/AHs/consignees) to somewhat take advantage of the manufactured rarity concept the card manufacturers have been able to play all along, by creating perceived "limited" editions or versions of certain vintage and pre-war cards, based on specific grades they are assigned by the TPGs, who often work in conjunction with dealers, AHs, and consignees. Anyone who thinks or believes there is not even the slightest possibility of a "quid pro quo" or "I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine" element to and in this hobby among its industry participants is either extremely naive, or extremely foolish, IMO.

[cubman1941]

Appreciate your comments and, wholehardly, agree. Back in the 80's and 90's I was buying boxes and putting together sets. I was having fun - then - first, I bought a box of probably 91 Upper Deck and did not get a card in the 600 series in the entire box, then, the subsets started coming out - when 1 of 1 started coming out I quit as I realized I could never finish a set and started into vintage Cubs. I have subsequently sent my surplus to auction just to pare down what I had. I still have fun only not as much as when I was opening packs. My kids and grandkids get me some packs to open every Christmas and I subsequently send those off also. Your comment about what difference did it make it it was a 9.5 or higher is the same thought I had. If it was truly a 1 of 1 it shouldn't make any difference. I also am with you on the "quid pro quo" statement.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by cubman1941

Appreciate your comments and, wholehardly, agree. Back in the 80's and 90's I was buying boxes and putting together sets. I was having fun - then - first, I bought a box of probably 91 Upper Deck and did not get a card in the 600 series in the entire box, then, the subsets started coming out - when 1 of 1 started coming out I quit as I realized I could never finish a set and started into vintage Cubs. I have subsequently sent my surplus to auction just to pare down what I had. I still have fun only not as much as when I was opening packs. My kids and grandkids get me some packs to open every Christmas and I subsequently send those off also. Your comment about what difference did it make it it was a 9.5 or higher is the same thought I had. If it was truly a 1 of 1 it shouldn't make any difference. I also am with you on the "quid pro quo" statement.

Right back at you on appreciation. And your story is exactly what has been happening to the hobby over the decades. When growing up, packs of cards for a nickel, dime, or quarter were available nearly everywhere you went. And easily accessible to kids who wanted them not for the possibility of selling them to make money, but because they wanted to pull cards of their favorite players/teams. Sure isn't like that today, or what it has been like over the past couple decades now. And don't really know of any younger, modern collectors that are true "set" collectors at all. Like you said, it seems impossible to reasonably collect and complete modern sets, with all the subsets, limited edition cards, and so on in the products released anymore.

[cubman1941]

Originally Posted by BobC

Right back at you on appreciation. And your story is exactly what has been happening to the hobby over the decades. When growing up, packs of cards for a nickel, dime, or quarter were available nearly everywhere you went. And easily accessible to kids who wanted them not for the possibility of selling them to make money, but because they wanted to pull cards of their favorite players/teams. Sure isn't like that today, or what it has been like over the past couple decades now. And don't really know of any younger, modern collectors that are true "set" collectors at all. Like you said, it seems impossible to reasonably collect and complete modern sets, with all the subsets, limited edition cards, and so on in the products released anymore.

I do not think there are any "set" collectors anymore or even many "favorite" players. It seems it all revolves around "what can I get for this card?". Regarding TPG, I am done with that also. I did have a number "graded" but that was only because I wanted to be sure they were not fakes or reprints. However, one can not even trust that anymore.

[Exhibitman]

Thanks for the favorable mentions, guys. The irony for me is that there are some really nice modern cards that I would like to own for my PC, I just think they are a crappy buy.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by cubman1941

I do not think there are any "set" collectors anymore or even many "favorite" players. It seems it all revolves around "what can I get for this card?". Regarding TPG, I am done with that also. I did have a number "graded" but that was only because I wanted to be sure they were not fakes or reprints. However, one can not even trust that anymore.

No worries, I, and I am sure some others, still work on collecting sets, just not sets of modern cards. LOL

When it comes to collecting modern sets, I guess people can still try to collect some select subsets or specific portions of some sets or just specific players from them, but you're right, most younger collectors in the modern sector are not worried about or into collecting complete actual sets of modern cards anymore. For a large majority of them, it seems to be a lot more about the valuable inserts and limited edition cards, and what they can flip to make money off of now, or hopefully put aside to make a couple bucks off of in the future.

The most modern "sets" I've worked on include the 1997 Donruss Signature Series autographed cards, just the "red" version base autos, the 2002 Topps 206 autographed and GU subsets, and the 2003 Topps 205 autographed and GU card subsets. Trying to collect and complete some of those types of sets are similar to the trials and tribulations of finishing some of the more vintage and pre-war sets out there. But haven't really been interested enough in anything else coming out in the almost 20 years since then.

And I'm like you with regard to TPGs. I have only submitted cards to a TPG for grading once, and it was really to just authentic some 1889 Diamond S and Number 7 Cigar baseball cards I had gotten raw and that were in really poor shape, but wanted to make sure were real as I wasn't familiar with those card issues back then. Other than that, I do have many graded cards I've purchased over the years, but I've only bought them graded as there weren't any reasonably priced raw versions available at the time otherwise.

[Exhibitman]

The single biggest detraction from modern, for me, is that the limited edition cards make it impossible to collect your favorite player. A few years ago I tried to 'collect the rainbow' of 2018 Leaf Originals Metal cards of Errol Spence, Jr. (a boxer I really liked and thought had HOF potential).



Problem is, I could never get the last few cards, the 1/1, the /2, or the /3. It is just not 'normal' to be unable to finish a set or run. I got frustrated and simply quit.

I will be airing a ton more grievances with modern in my blog.

[cubman1941]

Bob C - I should have been more specific in my post. I really meant to say that modern set collectors are few and far between if any. I still get modern Cubs thanks to a trader I met years ago who sends me all the modern Cubs. I still send him cards when I can of his team. Until three years ago we had a low minor league farm team and I would go to the games and pick up items, even got a bobblehead one year, and send to him. But MLB shut the league down and replaced it with a college wooden bat league. I still to to these games but the interest has waned since I can't follow these guys on the way to the bigs.

Adam, look forward to your next blog as I alwasy enjoy reading them.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The single biggest detraction from modern, for me, is that the limited edition cards make it impossible to collect your favorite player. A few years ago I tried to 'collect the rainbow' of 2018 Leaf Originals Metal cards of Errol Spence, Jr. (a boxer I really liked and thought had HOF potential).



Problem is, I could never get the last few cards, the 1/1, the /2, or the /3. It is just not 'normal' to be unable to finish a set or run. I got frustrated and simply quit.

I will be airing a ton more grievances with modern in my blog.

I feel your pain. The only modern(2017) rainbow I am interested in has 7 yes 7 1/1 cards. I still need 3 of them. I finally made the ones I was missing as placeholders until I hopefully find them.

[BobC]

And here's another possible comparison and situation you may want to think about and keep in mind between things like crypto and you card collection.

https://news.yahoo.com/bad-news-thou...000549637.html

It has been brought up here on the forum before about cards that people may have that are held by AHs, consignees, and especially in "vaults", for or on their behaves. But what if something happens to one of those entities while they have your cards in their possession? It looks like in this particular crypto story/situation the supposed owners of the crypto balances don't actually own what they originally put into the crypto entity/exchange, and somehow became unsecured creditors of their own assets/money.

It was Adam/exhibitman, I believe (and thank you Adam), that originally advised about users of things like "vaults" maybe wanting to look into filing UCC-1 reports with the applicable Secretary of State(s) offices to better ensure their right and claim to the ownership of their own cards they decided to put into one of these "vaults". And I would dare say the same consideration should possibly be extended (or at least considered) in regard to cards you place, even temporarily, with AHs or consignees selling them on your behalf, or maybe even with TPGs that have possession of your cards while reviewing and grading them.

It would make a lot of sense to me that anyone placing their cards/collection in someone else's hands, even for only a short period of time, would want to be absolutely sure there is some specific contract/document/written agreement they, and the party they are entrusting their cards to, have signed off on and committed to. It would also be extremely wise to review that said contract/document/agreement in full, and make sure you read and are fully aware of everything it says, and even more importantly, what it actually means legally as to your rights and the protection of your assets (ie: the cards you own) while in that other party's possession.

This is exactly the kind of thing that having a recognized hobby group/organization that is made up of members that are "true" collectors and hobbyists more than anything else, and not controlled by the AHs, dealers, TPGs, and others in the industry, would be perfect to handle. They could independently have people with proper legal training and knowledge review such agreements, and then be able to make the results of such reviews available to the hobby group/organization's membership so they would be aware of inadequacies or other potential issues that could befall them, or their collections, in doing business with such parties in the first place.

[cubman1941]

You bring up some interesting points that I hadn't thought of. I guess that is why grading companies ask you for value when you submit to them for grading. I gather they are only liable for that amount if your items are lost.

I personally would not want to put any of my items in a "vault". I guess I just like to have things in hand and make it my responsbility.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by cubman1941

You bring up some interesting points that I hadn't thought of. I guess that is why grading companies ask you for value when you submit to them for grading. I gather they are only liable for that amount if your items are lost.

I personally would not want to put any of my items in a "vault". I guess I just like to have things in hand and make it my responsbility.

Exactly how most "real" collectors feel, they want to have their cards at hand to handle and enjoy, not sitting in some vault or safe deposit box. But think back to the past year or two, and how the pandemic affected how long some TPGs may have been holding on to people's cards for grading them. What if something had happened and one of those TPGs went under, would the agreements/contracts/documents that were signed assure those people who submitted cards to the TPG that they would get them all back immediately, without any possible issues or problems? Or what about if instead of having submitted something directly to a TPG yourself, you instead went through a third party to do the submission for you, like as could occur with the PWCC and CSG recently announced working partnership. If, God forbid, something was to happen to CSG while your cards were with them for grading, and you had originally given your cards to PWCC and had them taking care of the grading for you, you aren't even necessarily on record as the card's submitter/owner with CSG, and now you've potentially got an additional layer of issues to go through to get your cards back. Now of course, chances of something like that happening are probably extremely slim to none, at worst, but there is still that chance. So, something for anyone with a valuable card/collection to at least consider, think about, and maybe look into at some point.