Card Prices During Recessions

[obcbobd]

Short term, I don't see prices falling much. The guy who bought a Ruth for $10k as an investment is not going to sell it at a big loss. He will sit on the card.

Eventually, he, or his heirs, will sell for whatever they can get. But that may be a ways off.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

Short term, I don't see prices falling much. The guy who bought a Ruth for $10k as an investment is not going to sell it at a big loss. He will sit on the card.

Eventually, he, or his heirs, will sell for whatever they can get. But that may be a ways off.

While that's probably true for someone who just bought today, there are a lot of collections that have been held for a lot longer. Not all of those collectors will live forever. If I had to guess, the average age of collectors in the vintage space is not under 40, and there is likely to be a large contingent in the 60+ range.

Plus from what I hear from reports about card shows, the average collector isn't keeping themselves in tip top physical shape, which is often not an effective strategy for maximizing longevity.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by raulus

Plus from what I hear from reports about card shows, the average collector isn't keeping themselves in tip top physical shape, which is often not an effective strategy for maximizing longevity.

Hey, I resemble that remark

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

Short term, I don't see prices falling much. The guy who bought a Ruth for $10k as an investment is not going to sell it at a big loss. He will sit on the card.

Eventually, he, or his heirs, will sell for whatever they can get. But that may be a ways off.

Yep they'll hold it until they need cash. As my father used to say...

"When does a recession become a depression? When you lose YOUR job."

[MailboxBaseball]

As the original poster, I just wanted to pop in and say thanks for all of the great responses.

Lots of bright folks here, and i appreciate everyone's insights.

I tend to agree with the majority. I think of it like this, certain cards seem to truly cross-over into the fine art and americana category. Like a 1933 goudey Ruth with bright colors, or a 52 Topps/53 Topps Mantle with great eye appeal.

Or a black history crossover like a 48 Leaf Robinson or a 52 Topps Robinson.

I think when you tap into these fine art quality and historically significant cards, they are certainly more recession-proof than say for example a really nice 1955 Topps Millie Mays in a PSA 3. While the Mays is a wonderful card, it may suffer a bit more of a drop during hard times. In my non-expert opinion.

Thanks again everyone

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

My prediction:



That said, remember this:

The Mr. T pic made me laugh haha thanks for posting

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by paleocards

i track sold prices on ebay and ahs for all of my "blue chips" (see the other active thread for "blue chip" def'n - haha). Here's some of the average annual sale data i've collected:

T206 tris speaker psa 5 (although this one doesn't go back to the 2008 recession, it's the oldest pre-war in my collection with these data collected)
2010 avg: $914.38
2011 avg: $780.40
2012 avg: $935.75
2013 avg: $1,147.82
2014 avg: $1,068.84
2015 avg: $1,092.89
2016 avg: $1,201.60
2017 avg: $1,183.66
2018 avg: $1,245.96
2019 avg: $2,944.19
2020 avg: $2,007.92
2021 avg: $3,065.00
2022 avg: $3,961.97

1954 #10 jackie robinson psa 8
2007 avg: $813.07
2008 avg: $903.90
2009 avg: $782.68
2010 avg: $773.74
2011 avg: $1,108.24
2012 avg: $1,009.19
2013 avg: $1,176.84
2014 avg: $1,257.32
2015 avg: $1,448.63
2016 avg: $1,624.36
2017 avg: $1,687.01
2018 avg: $1,944.51
2019 avg: $2,660.84
2020 avg: $3,509.34
2021 avg: $7,301.32
2022 avg: $7,883.44

1955 topps #123 sandy koufax rc psa 7
2008 avg: $882.62
2009 avg: $909.13
2010 avg: $850.15
2011 avg: $915.60
2012 avg: $1,034.23
2013 avg: $1,285.43
2014 avg: $1,249.50
2015 avg: $1,690.90
2016 avg: $3,639.44
2017 avg: $2,632.69
2018 avg: $2,615.77
2019 avg: $2,553.74
2020 avg: $3,357.98
2021 avg: $8,282.95
2022 avg: $7,081.04

1959 topps #514 bob gibson rc psa 8
2005 avg: $667.04
2006 avg: $619.34
2007 avg: $672.12
2008 avg: $765.71
2009 avg: $854.03
2010 avg: $780.13
2011 avg: $817.88
2012 avg: $838.16
2013 avg: $933.05
2014 avg: $1,262.72
2015 avg: $1,486.38
2016 avg: $2,279.96
2017 avg: $2,018.58
2018 avg: $2,070.23
2019 avg: $2,178.16
2020 avg: $2,749.59
2021 avg: $6,292.13
2022 avg: $6,281.35

the take-away from these data for me are that blue chip baseball cards are a good (long-term) investment. There seems to be a consistent dip in sale prices in the year or two post-recession (2009, 2010) but they all re-gained those losses and continued to appreciate. And of course, the last two years' gains have been unprecedented.

great stuff! Thanks for providing this data. Its very much appreciated!

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by Leon

I agree about staying to the basics for a financial investment. That said, that isn't always my objective. My objective is to get cards I think are cool and want in my collection. Esoteric cards are not necessarily the way to long term financial success, but they are fun nonetheless.

One for fun and one of the basics (if you will).

Awesome Ruth Leon. Yeah I agree, every collection should have part devoted to coolness over value. For me, thats always been Garbage Pail Kids