Card Prices During Recessions

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by paleocards

I track sold prices on eBay and AHs for all of my "blue chips" (see the other active thread for "blue chip" def'n - haha). Here's some of the average annual sale data I've collected:

T206 Tris Speaker PSA 5 (although this one doesn't go back to the 2008 recession, it's the oldest pre-war in my collection with these data collected)
2010 avg: $914.38
2011 avg: $780.40
2012 avg: $935.75
2013 avg: $1,147.82
2014 avg: $1,068.84
2015 avg: $1,092.89
2016 avg: $1,201.60
2017 avg: $1,183.66
2018 avg: $1,245.96
2019 avg: $2,944.19
2020 avg: $2,007.92
2021 avg: $3,065.00
2022 avg: $3,961.97

1954 #10 Jackie Robinson PSA 8
2007 avg: $813.07
2008 avg: $903.90
2009 avg: $782.68
2010 avg: $773.74
2011 avg: $1,108.24
2012 avg: $1,009.19
2013 avg: $1,176.84
2014 avg: $1,257.32
2015 avg: $1,448.63
2016 avg: $1,624.36
2017 avg: $1,687.01
2018 avg: $1,944.51
2019 avg: $2,660.84
2020 avg: $3,509.34
2021 avg: $7,301.32
2022 avg: $7,883.44

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7
2008 avg: $882.62
2009 avg: $909.13
2010 avg: $850.15
2011 avg: $915.60
2012 avg: $1,034.23
2013 avg: $1,285.43
2014 avg: $1,249.50
2015 avg: $1,690.90
2016 avg: $3,639.44
2017 avg: $2,632.69
2018 avg: $2,615.77
2019 avg: $2,553.74
2020 avg: $3,357.98
2021 avg: $8,282.95
2022 avg: $7,081.04

1959 Topps #514 Bob Gibson RC PSA 8
2005 avg: $667.04
2006 avg: $619.34
2007 avg: $672.12
2008 avg: $765.71
2009 avg: $854.03
2010 avg: $780.13
2011 avg: $817.88
2012 avg: $838.16
2013 avg: $933.05
2014 avg: $1,262.72
2015 avg: $1,486.38
2016 avg: $2,279.96
2017 avg: $2,018.58
2018 avg: $2,070.23
2019 avg: $2,178.16
2020 avg: $2,749.59
2021 avg: $6,292.13
2022 avg: $6,281.35

The take-away from these data for me are that blue chip baseball cards are a good (long-term) investment. There seems to be a consistent dip in sale prices in the year or two post-recession (2009, 2010) but they all re-gained those losses and continued to appreciate. And of course, the last two years' gains have been unprecedented.

I've put the figures from paleocards into Excel to show the Year over Year change. My observations:

• The increases started accelerating later in the economic cycle. Kind of when I started seeing more and more youtube videos about card investing.
• You can see some pretty big spikes. The spikes are generally followed by declines the year after (but the gain far exceeds the decline)

I agree that quality wins out over time but I also think we haven't seen a traditional economic cycle since 2007. The COVID induced recessions was unique with the vast amounts of money that was printed and put into the ecoomy. I don't think that we've had had a "proper recession" since the credit crisis and the figures really only start after that. I'd love to have the same data going back to the 1980s.

As Leon says, it's all about the demand because the supply of pre-war and post war vintage isn't really changing. I'm starting to notice some softening of prices. Not everywhere but in some places. But if the economy turns south where people are losing their jobs or they're scared that they'll lose their jobs....then discretionary spending on things like cars, art and baseball cards will be amongst the first to go. That's just the way the economic cycle goes.

At that point, prices will inevitably fall. I have no idea by how much. We all have collections of cards, that means that we have a natural bias about how we look at this. It's human nature to want to find information that aligns with what we want to hear. My gut tells me that there will be some substantial falls over the next few years. For the "investors" that joined the hobby in the last 5+ years, I can't help but think that when prices start to fall that they'll bail out. That'll only accelerate things. Then again....I'll be able to buy at cheaper prices. :-)

[Johnny630]

Do the investors have the stomach to stay the course? The quality high-end vintage not the mediocre, the cream, always comes back and when it does come back it comes back strong and falls the least in down markets. Things are looking good. I’m not worried.

[rats60]

1980 recession cards went up
1982 recession cards went up
1991 recession cards went up
2001 recession cards went up
2008 recession cards went down
2020 recession cards went up

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by rats60

1980 recession cards went up
1982 recession cards went up
1991 recession cards went up
2001 recession cards went up
2008 recession cards went down
2020 recession cards went up

All modern cards tanked from 1990 to about 2020. It was the last card bubble

Base Jordan's for a few bucks started going for hundreds as did wax boxes.

Until the get rich quick gang started their YouTube pump videos, the cards were slowly appreciating

[Republicaninmass]

2016-2019 we see stagnation or drop, other than Jackie. Then a divergence from the historical annual gains by 30-50%. If you dont have to sell in the next few years, you will be fine.

Edited "dont have sell:

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

We all have collections of cards, that means that we have a natural bias about how we look at this. It's human nature to want to find information that aligns with what we want to hear. My gut tells me that there will be some substantial falls over the next few years. For the "investors" that joined the hobby in the last 5+ years, I can't help but think that when prices start to fall that they'll bail out. That'll only accelerate things. Then again....I'll be able to buy at cheaper prices. :-)

I agree. Those of us lucky enough (I won't say prescient enough) to have purchased the big boys 10+ years ago will be just fine regardless, even if we have to sell into a price drop. Which many of us might not have to do. Again, though, we aren't in a recession, it is inflation. I'd rather have hard assets that are not interest rate dependent than cash in an inflationary period. We will be in a recession some day for sure but when that is I don't know. if I did I wouldn't be worrying about card prices, I'd be placing bets, er, investing in futures.

Meanwhile, since we have financialized collecting, I wonder how many of us have serious chunks of buying cash set aside waiting for the dip in card prices? I have a big shopping list for then...someone please ring a bell or something when it happens.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Meanwhile, since we have financialized collecting, I wonder how many of us have serious chunks of buying cash set aside waiting for the dip in card prices? I have a big shopping list for then...someone please ring a bell or something when it happens.

Got to have lots of dry powder standing by for when the goons leave!

[obcbobd]

Short term, I don't see prices falling much. The guy who bought a Ruth for $10k as an investment is not going to sell it at a big loss. He will sit on the card.

Eventually, he, or his heirs, will sell for whatever they can get. But that may be a ways off.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

Short term, I don't see prices falling much. The guy who bought a Ruth for $10k as an investment is not going to sell it at a big loss. He will sit on the card.

Eventually, he, or his heirs, will sell for whatever they can get. But that may be a ways off.

While that's probably true for someone who just bought today, there are a lot of collections that have been held for a lot longer. Not all of those collectors will live forever. If I had to guess, the average age of collectors in the vintage space is not under 40, and there is likely to be a large contingent in the 60+ range.

Plus from what I hear from reports about card shows, the average collector isn't keeping themselves in tip top physical shape, which is often not an effective strategy for maximizing longevity.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by raulus

Plus from what I hear from reports about card shows, the average collector isn't keeping themselves in tip top physical shape, which is often not an effective strategy for maximizing longevity.

Hey, I resemble that remark

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

Short term, I don't see prices falling much. The guy who bought a Ruth for $10k as an investment is not going to sell it at a big loss. He will sit on the card.

Eventually, he, or his heirs, will sell for whatever they can get. But that may be a ways off.

Yep they'll hold it until they need cash. As my father used to say...

"When does a recession become a depression? When you lose YOUR job."

[MailboxBaseball]

As the original poster, I just wanted to pop in and say thanks for all of the great responses.

Lots of bright folks here, and i appreciate everyone's insights.

I tend to agree with the majority. I think of it like this, certain cards seem to truly cross-over into the fine art and americana category. Like a 1933 goudey Ruth with bright colors, or a 52 Topps/53 Topps Mantle with great eye appeal.

Or a black history crossover like a 48 Leaf Robinson or a 52 Topps Robinson.

I think when you tap into these fine art quality and historically significant cards, they are certainly more recession-proof than say for example a really nice 1955 Topps Millie Mays in a PSA 3. While the Mays is a wonderful card, it may suffer a bit more of a drop during hard times. In my non-expert opinion.

Thanks again everyone