CAN WE SOLVE THIS HOBBY (SPORTS CARD) CRISIS? Video and Discussion

[Lordstan]

Breaks refers to the process of breaking open unopened card product. The process is a person/number of persons buys all the cards of a certain team while the seller person "breaks" open a box or case of cards. So the buyer is gambling that there will be some expensive cards in whatever is being broken open.
A razz, razzle, waffle, and raffle are all slang for the same thing. A seller sells a raffle slot to win an item. I have seen cards, autos, and memorabilia items all sold this way. So a seller will list something like "10 spots @$30". Buyers put their name on the list by which specific number they want. Once all slots are full, everyone will pay and then an online random number raffle generator is used to choose a winner. Over the past couple years, people would run them before everyone paid, but recently there have been a lot of non payers, so now, if anyone doesn't not pay they raffle does not go forward.
These 2 things seem to be mostly Facebook driven, with some breaks happening on Instagram as well.
I think the new stuff is in trouble because a lot of the new people to the hobby were internet content creators who drummed up followings by creating excitement. Buying and holding vintage stuff is not exciting in an immediate sense for many. They want the immediate gratification of the flip. Buy it today, wait for the player to have a good game or two, and flip for a profit. It was all about the adrenaline rush at a time when boredom was an issue. Now that real life is starting to return, the rush is no longer as needed. Now that there are less buyers, the flipper/investor has far fewer people to flip to.

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[lowpopper]

but really tho...just keep buying

[Exhibitman]

How are breaks not illegal lotteries?

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

How are breaks not illegal lotteries?

Because everyone will get something. Not a lottery.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Because everyone will get something. Not a lottery.

I was going to say that too. I really don’t know why it’s not legally a lottery, but here are four potential reasons:

1. Everyone wins. Some win more than others, but everyone gets something, so it’s a genuine quid pro quo transaction

2. The winners are not getting cash. They are getting a piece of personality. Maybe lotteries are limited to cash

3. The break pool may be too small. Is it a lottery if only 20-30 people participate

4. The “payout” is not derived by the the number of people paying in. For example, the more people who buy lottery tickets, the more the winning pot. That is not the case here, as the winning pot is finite and fixed before the event begins

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Because everyone will get something. Not a lottery.

This is very incorrect, as is what else was being stated on this.

In actuality, you are more likely to receive nothing in a high end break. The breaks are seldom cases, and even those are often nothing. A box of high end can contain less than 10 cards, those breaks are most often sold by player…the entire set list. A set can contain 100 players or more, though often repeated. There is no chance of everyone receiving a pull.

I have honestly participated in maybe 4-5 of these on a lark for specific rookies and can state I am 0-5 on receiving anything.

Guaranteed breaks cost quite a bit and are done by card position in the pack per lottery. These are done for vintage pack breaks also. Those can be hundreds for a card position, while player breaks tend to be less than 20 bucks.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by JustinD

This is very incorrect, as is what else was being stated on this.

In actuality, you are more likely to receive nothing in a high end break. The breaks are seldom cases, and even those are often nothing. A box of high end can contain less than 10 cards, those breaks are most often sold by player…the entire set list. A set can contain 100 players or more, though often repeated. There is no chance of everyone receiving a pull.

I have honestly participated in maybe 4-5 of these on a lark for specific rookies and can state I am 0-5 on receiving anything.

Guaranteed breaks cost quite a bit and are done by card position in the pack per lottery. These are done for vintage pack breaks also. Those can be hundreds for a card position, while player breaks tend to be less than 20 bucks.

As I've understood it, from and on a purely technical standpoint, all "breaks" can probably be considered as a form of gambling. Gambling laws are generally state laws, and thus vary from state to state, and can further vary by the different types of "breaks" there are and the rules they follow. But generally speaking, for an activity to be considered gambling it must be found to involve three very distinct elements.

1. A prize (money or something of value a person can get from participating).

2. An element of chance in determining the winner of the prize(s).

3. Consideration (some type of payment or activity performed to participate).

Pretty much every "break" contains all three elements if you consider some rookie, game used, autographed, or otherwise short-printed cards as potentially being more valuable cards (prizes) that are randomly inserted (chance) into packs/boxes of cards that you then pay to get (consideration) some of as part of a "break". But here's the funny part, you don't have to take part in a "break" to meet those three gambling elements. Just going to a store or dealer to buy a pack or box of cards to open yourself seems to meet and fulfil all three gambling elements as well, doesn't it? So why hasn't Topps, Panini, or any other card company been brought up anywhere on illegal gambling charges yet? Think about that real hard. This is why it is often assumed that as long as everybody gets something in "break", the element of chance is removed because the value of the cards being sold are all technically the same, based on what the manufacturer sells each pack/box of cards for. And this is likely why many Breakers, to my understanding, make sure all "break" participants get some cards, even if the "break" they participated in originally resulted in them getting no cards.

Now over time, no Breaker has as of yet to my knowledge had any state come after any one of them for running an illegal gambling operation. So, is it any surprise that some Breakers would eventually just run "breaks" as you described, where participants can end up getting nothing and the Breakers just quit bothering to send those unlucky people anything, as has happened to you on multiple occasions? In this case, I think such "breaks" where participants can end up with nothing really are true gambling activities, but for whatever reason(s), state and local prosecutors have not yet found it fit to go after and try prosecuting them. Maybe it has to do with there being bigger fish for prosecutors to be looking to go after and fry, so to speak, or the possible negative public perception of wasting time and money going after people just selling baseball cards.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by BobC

As I've understood it, from and on a purely technical standpoint, all "breaks" can probably be considered as a form of gambling. Gambling laws are generally state laws, and thus vary from state to state, and can further vary by the different types of "breaks" there are and the rules they follow. But generally speaking, for an activity to be considered gambling it must be found to involve three very distinct elements.

1. A prize (money or something of value a person can get from participating).

2. An element of chance in determining the winner of the prize(s).

3. Consideration (some type of payment or activity performed to participate).

Pretty much every "break" contains all three elements if you consider some rookie, game used, autographed, or otherwise short-printed cards as potentially being more valuable cards (prizes) that are randomly inserted (chance) into packs/boxes of cards that you then pay to get (consideration) some of as part of a "break". But here's the funny part, you don't have to take part in a "break" to meet those three gambling elements. Just going to a store or dealer to buy a pack or box of cards to open yourself seems to meet and fulfil all three gambling elements as well, doesn't it? So why hasn't Topps, Panini, or any other card company been brought up anywhere on illegal gambling charges yet? Think about that real hard. This is why it is often assumed that as long as everybody gets something in "break", the element of chance is removed because the value of the cards being sold are all technically the same, based on what the manufacturer sells each pack/box of cards for. And this is likely why many Breakers, to my understanding, make sure all "break" participants get some cards, even if the "break" they participated in originally resulted in them getting no cards.

Now over time, no Breaker has as of yet to my knowledge had any state come after any one of them for running an illegal gambling operation. So, is it any surprise that some Breakers would eventually just run "breaks" as you described, where participants can end up getting nothing and the Breakers just quit bothering to send those unlucky people anything, as has happened to you on multiple occasions? In this case, I think such "breaks" where participants can end up with nothing really are true gambling activities, but for whatever reason(s), state and local prosecutors have not yet found it fit to go after and try prosecuting them. Maybe it has to do with there being bigger fish for prosecutors to be looking to go after and fry, so to speak, or the possible negative public perception of wasting time and money going after people just selling baseball cards.

While I agree, it is certainly a form of gambling to buy into breaks, I think this would be a tough sell in a court of law. Because by the same logic, buying a pack of cards from your local card shop or from a Target or Walmart would also be considered gambling.

[Lordstan]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

How are breaks not illegal lotteries?

My only thought is this. In a lottery there is a chance you could lose and get nothing. In a break, you are purchasing all the cards of a specific team in that box/case/whatever. There is no question that you will get what you purchased. The question is what specific cards will be in what you purchased.

Not sure if that somehow skirts around the legal definition of a lottery or not. While I am not an attorney, I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

There is a backstory with this particular card though that I think likely had an effect on its drop in value. I recall reading that someone from PSA made it known that they rejected the card for trimming. Also, I think the BGS black label scandal likely played a role as well. Basically, big pocket investors lost confidence in this particular copy of this card.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

IMO the whole BGS Black Label thing is rather foolish to begin with, and, if an expose on Blowout is to be believed, subject to favoritism if not outright corruption. Textbook example of buying the flip. Nothing wrong with that until you lose a million on it.

I'm generally dismissive of a lot of the accusations that get thrown around in this hobby, but I'm as certain as I could possibly be that the BGS Black Label scandal is an actual conspiracy, not just a theory. The percentage of black label cards going to one guy is simply far too improbable. Add in the fact that he just so happens to be a former employee... ya, LOL. He absolutely received favorable grades. This is not someone with an "eagle eye". You could crack out and resubmit 100 BGS 10 black labels and you'd probably only get 5 back, if you're lucky. It's all a complete joke. No card is truly perfect. I could find a flaw on every single card I've ever looked at.