$15,000 to spend on 1-5 cards...WWYD?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And I wish I had bought AMZN at every record high it hit from 50 to 3000. No you can't tell in real time.

I am able to tell, within 10 seconds, that this might be a good time to buy blue chips (like Amazon, they're pretty stable nowadays) and index funds. They are all well off the recent peaks as the US economy is deteriorating in the short term. This is not a special skill.

Maybe I'm an idiot, but I'm really not seeing any rational argument that the market is high rather than low right now. I didn't buy in 2021 because the same data told me, and basically everyone in the world, that the market was high and not a good time to buy into a long-term hold strategy of 'safe' blue chips and indexes.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Well of course you're not an idiot lol. But if it was as easy as you think, then why isn't every fund manager in America just buying up AMZN? It could go up, it could go way down (antitrust risk for example, but 100 other reasons too.) Look at NVDA, I would have said it was a great buy 50 points ago and it keeps tanking. Buy low sell high is just not that doable in real time.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Well of course you're not an idiot lol. But if it was as easy as you think, then why isn't every fund manager in America just buying up AMZN? It could go up, it could go way down (antitrust risk for example, but 100 other reasons too.) Look at NVDA, I would have said it was a great buy 50 points ago and it keeps tanking. Buy low sell high is just not that doable in real time.

Probably because hedge funds don't want a very conservative gradual growth for themselves, they need to set record numbers. I don't think hedge funds reward managers with those fat bonuses if they play a slow and safe game. But I'm not in banking, so I don't know. My strategy is for a normal dude trying to buy safe picks and hold for the long haul so that one day I won't have to sell my labor to another man to survive and may hopefully live out my last years in a modicum of comfort before death.

Some of my picks are down 3 months after I buy. Often, actually. Some are down 12 months later. But I'm doing a LOT better than if I'd bought those same stocks when everything was setting records, aren't I? We know at a glance when things are setting records its high, and when the market has plummeted 20%, things are relatively low. Probably not the absolute low, that's the fools errand, but I cannot possibly do better than I am now by buying these same stocks when they are setting records. Maybe I will lose, but I will lose a lot less when I actively manage and shave 20-25%+ off my buy-in price.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Probably because hedge funds don't want a very conservative gradual growth for themselves, they need to set record numbers. I don't think hedge funds reward managers with those fat bonuses if they play a slow and safe game. But I'm not in banking, so I don't know. My strategy is for a normal dude trying to buy safe picks and hold for the long haul so that one day I won't have to sell my labor to another man to survive and may hopefully live out my last years in a modicum of comfort before death.

Some of my picks are down 3 months after I buy. Often, actually. Some are down 12 months later. But I'm doing a LOT better than if I'd bought those same stocks when everything was setting records, aren't I? We know at a glance when things are setting records its high, and when the market has plummeted 20%, things are relatively low. Probably not the absolute low, that's the fools errand, but I cannot possibly do better than I am now by buying these same stocks when they are setting records. Maybe I will lose, but I will lose a lot less when I actively manage and shave 20-25%+ off my buy-in price.

I am not sure you are using the correct but for world, but if it's working for you that's fine. For myself, I'm convinced trying to time isn't the best strategy.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Probably because hedge funds don't want a very conservative gradual growth for themselves, they need to set record numbers. I don't think hedge funds reward managers with those fat bonuses if they play a slow and safe game. But I'm not in banking, so I don't know. My strategy is for a normal dude trying to buy safe picks and hold for the long haul so that one day I won't have to sell my labor to another man to survive and may hopefully live out my last years in a modicum of comfort before death.

Some of my picks are down 3 months after I buy. Often, actually. Some are down 12 months later. But I'm doing a LOT better than if I'd bought those same stocks when everything was setting records, aren't I? We know at a glance when things are setting records its high, and when the market has plummeted 20%, things are relatively low. Probably not the absolute low, that's the fools errand, but I cannot possibly do better than I am now by buying these same stocks when they are setting records. Maybe I will lose, but I will lose a lot less when I actively manage and shave 20-25%+ off my buy-in price.

I didn't limit my statement to hedge funds. There are tons of mutual funds that are not hedge funds.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I didn't limit my statement to hedge funds. There are tons of mutual funds that are not hedge funds.

I did not mean to misquote you. I really can't speak to the internal management of either mutual funds or hedge funds knowledgeably. I can't fathom a firm would pay a fund manager to say "the market is high right now, don't buy. Hold cash for the next work economy and buy then" and not do any work all year.

That doesn't make it bad though. There is a 0% chance I can outperform my current strategy by buying during market highs instead of waiting for the cyclic falls, which the basic charts tell us all are or are not happening.