Come shed a tear

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by raulus

Just out of curiosity, what does the math say about the difference between a 5-game and a 7-game series in terms of the probability of a major underdog knocking off a favorite? Just for fun, let’s say a hypothetical team with 89 wins was facing another hypothetical team with 111.

Based on the regular season win totals, the 111-win team should beat the 89-win team 55.6% of the time. That gives the better team a 60.4% chance of winning a best-of-5 series and a 68.5% chance of winning a best-of-7 series.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Based on the regular season win totals, the 111-win team should beat the 89-win team 55.6% of the time. That gives the better team a 60.4% chance of winning a best-of-5 series and a 68.5% chance of winning a best-of-7 series.

I think the Dodgers beat the Padres 14 out of 19 games in 2022. That puts them at 73.7% on the season. However, they only took 1 out of 4 games in the post season, that's 25%. Has a nice ring to it, 25%... let's type that again, 25%... it just rolls off the fingertips...

.684 win% (111 wins) vs .549 win% (89 wins) -

doesn't make sense... 25%...

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Based on the regular season win totals, the 111-win team should beat the 89-win team 55.6% of the time. That gives the better team a 60.4% chance of winning a best-of-5 series and a 68.5% chance of winning a best-of-7 series.

This math is not correct