Class of 2013 -- HOF prospects

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

It will be interesting to see how the Hall of Fame standard for starting pitchers adapts over time. I would expect the answer to the the same way it always has...painfully slowly.

There are four active starters I'd say are pretty much HOF locks: Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and to a lesser degree Zack Grienke.

After those guys...who's the next active SP who makes the HOF? Sale? deGrom? Cole? Of the three, I like deGrom's chances the best, but even those rely on some re-thinking of the HOF standard.

Beyond those three? Anyone's guess!

I think these 4 would make the Hall if they retired tomorrow and never pitched again. They are shoe in's.

Sale, DeGrom, Cole are all possible but all have played very little even by the reduced standards of now. Sale has barely played since 2019 and has lost most of his early 30's. Degroom has pitched less than 100 innings since 2019. He has 1,326 at age 34, which even now is extremely low. Cole is 2 years younger than Sale, he might have the best trajectory for the long term.

I don't think anyone else is a serious contender at this point.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by G1911

I don't think anyone else is a serious contender at this point.

I'm with you, although I'll put deGrom ahead of Cole on my list. When deGrom does pitch, he racks up the numbers. in 11 stars this year, he's got 1.5 WAR. In 15 last year he had an insane 4.4.

Any of them will need to get and stay healthy. A tall order for any pitcher in their 30's.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If the reduced innings per start are the result of data about ineffectiveness in later turns though the lineup, perhaps someone will conclude it makes sense to go back to the four man rotation. At today's norms I don't think these guys are in any danger of burning their arms out and may be underutilized.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If the reduced innings per start are the result of data about ineffectiveness in later turns though the lineup, perhaps someone will conclude it makes sense to go back to the four man rotation. At today's norms I don't think these guys are in any danger of burning their arms out and may be underutilized.

For these 3 specifically, 2 struggle to stay in the rotation and even pitch at all. Considering the tens of millions they are paying for ace pitchers, the absurdly low inning counts they get these days just doesn't seem worth it. There will be have to be some return to more innings in some way, or we will just have no true starters to save money and everyone will be effectively a reliever.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Maybe Dave Roberts this year will yank all his starters after 3, instead of after 4. Much better to go with fungible journeymen than the four starters with a collective era of about 2.30.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Maybe Dave Roberts this year will yank all his starters after 3, instead of after 4. Much better to go with fungible journeymen than the four starters with a collective era of about 2.30.

Don't get me started on Dave Roberts

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Don't get me started on Dave Roberts

I've never seen a manager try so hard to lose. And at some point I don't care about the computer models, if I have the best pitcher in the league cruising with command after 4, I'm not yanking him in favor of some mediocre journeyman.