Omnious sign in market?

[babraham]

Leland's sale prices on their auction ending tonight seemed to be down (at least on the lots I was watching).

15 CJ Jackson PSA 2 for under $30k
51B Mantle Rookie PSA 4 for $15k (recent comps between $18-23k)

Also...this boggled my mind:

86F Jordan Rookie PSA 10 $191k
86F Jordan Rookie SGC 10 $74k

$117k more for the same card/same grade with the PSA holder? Ouch.

[3-2-count]

In my opinion the Psa 2 1915 CJ Jax and Psa 4 1951 Bowman Mantle examples aren’t a reflection of much due to both having serious condition issues. I think their ending price was accurate.

The 15 CJ Jax was terribly faded due to God knows what with quite a bit of paper loss on the reverse and the 51 Mick had horrid centering with terrible registration.

The cards sold for what they are!

The final price discrepancy on the two Jordan rookies is absolutely ridiculous though! Just silly!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by babraham

Leland's sale prices on their auction ending tonight seemed to be down (at least on the lots I was watching).

15 CJ Jackson PSA 2 for under $30k
51B Mantle Rookie PSA 4 for $15k (recent comps between $18-23k)

Also...this boggled my mind:

86F Jordan Rookie PSA 10 $191k
86F Jordan Rookie SGC 10 $74k

$117k more for the same card/same grade with the PSA holder? Ouch.

The 86 Fleer Jordan has been dropping pretty steadily in recent months. Leland's is the last place I would sell one. The basketball collectors just don't check Lelands like the vintage baseball guys do. It probably cost the seller 20k or more for that PSA 10 having it there. I bet it does $210-220 if it were on PWCC premier. Also, the basketball market HATES SGC slabs for some reason. They get no love at all. Much wider gaps than in other sports.

That Mantle RC price doesn't strike me as an outlier at all. It was about the worst-looking PSA 4 I've ever seen. I think it oversold its eye appeal, personally. It's so far OC that they'd have to mark it as a miscut if it were any further off. And the registration is difficult to look at without going cross-eyed. I feel like I need a pair of those red/blue 3D glasses to view it properly.

The Cracker Jack Joe Jackson is a bit surprising though. The 1915s don't get enough love, but still. $30k? Feels low to me, although I'm not well tuned in on CJ prices.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The Cracker Jack Joe Jackson is a bit surprising though. The 1915s don't get enough love, but still. $30k? Feels low to me, although I'm not well tuned in on CJ prices.

I am very well tuned in to CJ pricing and as I said this example wasn't going to meet or exceed any records due its condition and isn't a reflection of the current market for Cracker Jack blue chips such as Cobb and Jackson.

Not only did it have extensive back damage, but the front color is way off due to either being soaked incorrectly or color fade from excessive exposure to light. Color should be dark bold red. Its even more noticeable on the left and right sides as its almost pink in color.

Go look at other examples and compare the color and then you decide. That is what held this back from selling for more. Actually, $30K for this example is pretty hefty in my opinion and I'm also quite surprised it made its way into a 2 holder.

[Bicem]

Agreed with Tony, I'm actually surprised that washed out Jackson reached 30k.

[Johnny630]

If we get any Down Turn on these they should be bought And put away. When you’re talking about nicer grades centered examples are Ruth Cobb Jackson Mantle and Mays. The 50s and back to me to buy.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by babraham

Leland's sale prices on their auction ending tonight seemed to be down (at least on the lots I was watching).

15 CJ Jackson PSA 2 for under $30k
51B Mantle Rookie PSA 4 for $15k (recent comps between $18-23k)

Also...this boggled my mind:

86F Jordan Rookie PSA 10 $191k
86F Jordan Rookie SGC 10 $74k

$117k more for the same card/same grade with the PSA holder? Ouch.

Prices on the Jackson and the Mantle reflect the quality to the cards, not the market. Most of the vintage I looked at had solid numbers. Market is still healthy enough.

The disparity in the Jordan prices is also expected.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Prices on the Jackson and the Mantle reflect the quality of the cards, not the market. Most of the vintage I looked at had solid numbers. The market is still healthy enough.

The disparity in the Jordan prices is also expected.

Extremely healthy I agree. I think next year it’s only going higher. REA will probably have record numbers in their fall auction that starts in November bank on that.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Extremely healthy I agree. I think next year it’s only going higher. REA will probably have record numbers in their fall auction that starts in November bank on that.

REA had pretty solid numbers on stuff from tonight's auction. Maybe not on weaker examples of cards but on decent looking examples, prices were very respectable.

[sreader3]

Someone asked for more than anecdotes. I can offer these year-over-year median price data for "true" T206 commons (not "premium" commons which are in shorter supply) sold in the last three months or so:

PSA 2: $82 v. $75 (+9.3%)
PSA 3: $125 v. $100 (+25.0%)
PSA 4: $190 v. $143 (+32.9%)
PSA 5: $280 v. $221 (+26.7%)
PSA 6: $510 v. $450 (+13.3%)
PSA 7: $2100 v. $1980 (+6.1%)

N for this data collection effort is around 1000.

T206 prices seem to be tracking right now about the same as they were three months ago -- maybe a slight increase -- after rising substantially earlier in the year. The midgrade market (PSA 3 - PSA 5) seems to be the strongest. This was not true last year when lower grades fared better on a percentage basis.

[parkerj33]

Scott, do you have similar data for SGC of the same type of commons group? Wondering if SGC tracks similar to psa in t206 especially. thanks!

[sreader3]

Hi Jim,

I do not track SGC, mainly because the sample size is much smaller. I did a sampling several years ago and T206 SGC pricing tracked at about 75% of T206 PSA pricing overall.
Scot

Edited to add:

My T206 price check app is free! It doesn't catch all of the nuances of T206 front/back combos but is reasonably good. Did I mention it is free?

http://www.t206insider.com/store/c1/...r#price-check/