1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 Final Price – Too high, too low, just right?

[Exhibitman]

I've never understood why some dealers are rude to walk-ups. It takes just as much effort to be an asshat as to be courteous, with the added bonus of a potential re-engagement with the customer if he has something else to sell later and found you to be a decent guy to approach.

As for the Mantle, it has crossed over into a different realm than an average card, so all bets are off as to what happens down the line. My (considerable) gut tells me that it is a good longer-term hold; has been for decades and I see no reason why it will not be later.

A lot of us old duffers are just not used to the numbers that the modern collectors thrown around routinely. They don't think twice about going into five figures on a card, probably because they have no recollection of what it was like when beater Mantle cards were in dollar boxes. I think the % of them that eventually find their way to vintage won't flinch at paying what it takes to get hold of an iconic card like the Mantle, at prices that leave us shaking our heads at our own lack of vision decades earlier. They don't have the emotional baggage that comes with realizing that a reallocation of purchases 30 years ago would have been a lottery win today. My wife asked me why I didn't buy some of these cards in the 1990s. Because I was a sap who did the right thing and put money into my IRA instead. Besides, if I'd come home and announced that I used the IRA money to buy a baseball card, she'd have tossed me and the card to the curb.

[Johnny630]

Through all this talk lets think about it? What's the next possible vintage card to take off like this? We can't go back and buy a 52 Mantle fair now but heck we might be able to find the next one :-) positive vibes !!

[Tyruscobb]

$12.5M compounded at just 8% (conservative estimate), over five years, equals $18,366,600.96. This is almost a 47% return.

$12.5M compounded at 10% (average historical return), over five years, equals $20,131,375. This is over a 61% return.

I know it's impossible to predict the card market, let alone the stock market, but I just don't see this card appreciating more than 61% in 5 years - making it a great investment.

The card will probably appreciate overtime, but I think the biggest upside is already baked into the cake.

I know this analysis is probably moot. The person who purchased the card probably has enough money that the investment analysis doesn't matter. I mean, what is $12.5M to a billionaire.

[chriskim]

has the new owner step out to claim the victory yet? Rob Gough right?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

$12.5M compounded at just 8% (conservative estimate), over five years, equals $18,366,600.96. This is almost a 47% return.

$12.5M compounded at 10% (average historical return), over five years, equals $20,131,375. This is over a 61% return.

I know it's impossible to predict the card market, let alone the stock market, but I just don't see this card appreciating more than 61% in 5 years - making it a great investment.

The card will probably appreciate overtime, but I think the biggest upside is already baked into the cake.

I know this analysis is probably moot. The person who purchased the card probably has enough money that the investment analysis doesn't matter. I mean, what is $12.5M to a billionaire.

I've been thinking this for the past 5 years and have been dead wrong every year that passes. Just because it doesn't make sense doesn't mean it's not so. This card has a Cult Like Following. Sure I think 5's and lower have topped out for the next few years however the higher ends it's not coming down. I accept it for what it is.