1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 Final Price – Too high, too low, just right?

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by BobC

Seem to remember seeing/hearing a story from somewhere about Rosen having a meltdown at the first National ever held at Cleveland's IX Center. It was patented Rosen behavior to always try to have the very first table/booth inside the entrance door at every show he set up at so he had the first crack at buying things from anyone walking in with something to potentially sell. I remember him literally calling out to all people walking in to the National, and haranguing them to come right over to see him, just like a carnival barker trying to get people to buy a ticket to the side show. At the IX Center though, I heard Rosen wasn't aware in advance of that year's National that there were actually two show entrances, at opposite ends of the building. So he was supposedly pissed that whatever he had to pay/do to get that first booth/table inside the entrance was really only going to get him a first shot at about half the people attending, and not all of them like he wanted. I believe as a result he never came back and set up at another National after that, at least not in Cleveland. Feel free to correct me for any inaccuracies.

Can't vouch for the IX Center story, but sounds just like him. For years, at every major show in the Northeast, you had to get past the Rosen gauntlet at the entrance. At one of my first shows ever, in 1991, I walked over to him with that year's HOF pin and charm, which at that time were hot commodities, and put them on the table. When he saw what they were, he pushed them back across the table to me, and wheeled his chair 180 degrees away. He never looked at me the whole time and never said a word. I never spoke to him again for the following few decades we were at shows together. The HOF pin and charm, by the way, brought me $700 from one of the next dealers I talked to.

[Exhibitman]

I've never understood why some dealers are rude to walk-ups. It takes just as much effort to be an asshat as to be courteous, with the added bonus of a potential re-engagement with the customer if he has something else to sell later and found you to be a decent guy to approach.

As for the Mantle, it has crossed over into a different realm than an average card, so all bets are off as to what happens down the line. My (considerable) gut tells me that it is a good longer-term hold; has been for decades and I see no reason why it will not be later.

A lot of us old duffers are just not used to the numbers that the modern collectors thrown around routinely. They don't think twice about going into five figures on a card, probably because they have no recollection of what it was like when beater Mantle cards were in dollar boxes. I think the % of them that eventually find their way to vintage won't flinch at paying what it takes to get hold of an iconic card like the Mantle, at prices that leave us shaking our heads at our own lack of vision decades earlier. They don't have the emotional baggage that comes with realizing that a reallocation of purchases 30 years ago would have been a lottery win today. My wife asked me why I didn't buy some of these cards in the 1990s. Because I was a sap who did the right thing and put money into my IRA instead. Besides, if I'd come home and announced that I used the IRA money to buy a baseball card, she'd have tossed me and the card to the curb.

[Johnny630]

Through all this talk lets think about it? What's the next possible vintage card to take off like this? We can't go back and buy a 52 Mantle fair now but heck we might be able to find the next one :-) positive vibes !!

[Tyruscobb]

$12.5M compounded at just 8% (conservative estimate), over five years, equals $18,366,600.96. This is almost a 47% return.

$12.5M compounded at 10% (average historical return), over five years, equals $20,131,375. This is over a 61% return.

I know it's impossible to predict the card market, let alone the stock market, but I just don't see this card appreciating more than 61% in 5 years - making it a great investment.

The card will probably appreciate overtime, but I think the biggest upside is already baked into the cake.

I know this analysis is probably moot. The person who purchased the card probably has enough money that the investment analysis doesn't matter. I mean, what is $12.5M to a billionaire.

[chriskim]

has the new owner step out to claim the victory yet? Rob Gough right?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

$12.5M compounded at just 8% (conservative estimate), over five years, equals $18,366,600.96. This is almost a 47% return.

$12.5M compounded at 10% (average historical return), over five years, equals $20,131,375. This is over a 61% return.

I know it's impossible to predict the card market, let alone the stock market, but I just don't see this card appreciating more than 61% in 5 years - making it a great investment.

The card will probably appreciate overtime, but I think the biggest upside is already baked into the cake.

I know this analysis is probably moot. The person who purchased the card probably has enough money that the investment analysis doesn't matter. I mean, what is $12.5M to a billionaire.

I've been thinking this for the past 5 years and have been dead wrong every year that passes. Just because it doesn't make sense doesn't mean it's not so. This card has a Cult Like Following. Sure I think 5's and lower have topped out for the next few years however the higher ends it's not coming down. I accept it for what it is.