Goldschmidt -- HOF chances?

[packs]

If he does manage to grind out a triple crown I’d say he moves into lock territory. But if he doesn’t I think he’s still on the fence even with the MVP.

[Mike D.]

What makes a HOF 1st Basemen?

The average career WAR* of the 23 Hall of Fame first basemen is 65.5, although that average includes Lou Gehrig’s 113.7, so the medium is slightly lower.

Goldschmidt is at 57.8 WAR right now, which could bump up a bit by season end.

7.7 WAR in a 2-3 more seasons doesn't sound unreasonable, especially at his current production levels.

He's already got more career WAR than 10 HOF 1B, including Terry, Greenberg, Sisler, Perez, and Cepeda.

* - if it matters, I'm using BB-R WAR here.

[Mike D.]

Goldschmidt is one of several Active Major League Hitters Who We Think Are On The Baseball Hall Of Fame Path.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Trout??

Oh I see this is non locks got it. Barring catastrophic injury I would rank Harper over Betts, I believe a lot of Betts' WAR is from defense and who cares lol. Harper is still not even 30, to me that's amazing.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Trout??

Oh I see this is non locks got it. Barring catastrophic injury I would rank Harper over Betts, I believe a lot of Betts' WAR is from defense and who cares lol. Harper is still not even 30, to me that's amazing.

I think Harper will eventually be a lock for the Hall of Fame. Even with the Injury bug he's had, the guy has already won two MVP's. As long as nothing serious happens to him, that completely derails his career, we're looking at someone who will post a 60+ WAR and has a good shot at the 500 Home Run club.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Trout??

Oh I see this is non locks got it. Barring catastrophic injury I would rank Harper over Betts, I believe a lot of Betts' WAR is from defense and who cares lol. Harper is still not even 30, to me that's amazing.

Yes, Trout is a lock. Here's the article I did on sure thing active hitters and sure thing active pitchers.

Harper and Betts are only a couple weeks apart in age, they both have a good shot. Yes, Betts baserunning and defense adds a higher percentage of his value than Harpers. Harper has played 300 more games, and has more career homers, but their career OPS+ is fairly close (144 for Harpers, 135 for Betts).

My article on active pitchers on the path hasn't been published yet, but that's where it gets tricky. Outside the locks, the pickings get rather slim pretty quickly.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Yes, Trout is a lock. Here's the article I did on sure thing active hitters and sure thing active pitchers.

Harper and Betts are only a couple weeks apart in age, they both have a good shot. Yes, Betts baserunning and defense adds a higher percentage of his value than Harpers. Harper has played 300 more games, and has more career homers, but their career OPS+ is fairly close (144 for Harpers, 135 for Betts).

My article on active pitchers on the path hasn't been published yet, but that's where it gets tricky. Outside the locks, the pickings get rather slim pretty quickly.

Yeah four locks I assume, then I guess Cole and DeGrom might be on track, then I dunno. Can't see Wainwright, Bumgarner seems to have imploded, Lance Lynn eh, who else?

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah four locks I assume, then I guess Cole and DeGrom might be on track, then I dunno. Can't see Wainwright, Bumgarner seems to have imploded, Lance Lynn eh, who else?

Cole might be get there, but it's a long climb. The two SP's I see with a shot are Sale and DeGrom, and I gotta say Sale's chances are kind of nosediving.

Other than that, there's a couple relievers with a shot, but it's mostly pretty...bleak.