Surprising facts

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by packs

WAR is a weird stat for some people. Right now it's favoring Tommy Edman on the Cardinals in weird ways. His slash line is 252/315/372 with a OPS+ of 98, yet he ranks Fourth among all NL position players wiith a WAR of 5.0, better than Austin Riley, who's slashing 285/351/557 with an OPS+ of 147.

First off Edman's only .2 ahead of Riley so it's not like Riley is head-scratchingly low in WAR. Also he's a second baseman so his WAR is being generated by being compared to other second basemen, generally a weaker hitting bunch. Finally he's putting up a 2.8 D-WAR as compared to Riley's .3 so Riley, even by WAR is clearly the superior offensive player, but the totality has them about even in helping their team actually win games.

[packs]

But is that accurate is what I'm getting at. I don't think there is anyone who would look at each player and determine Edman is having a better season. His OPS is below replacement level.

I also think dWAR is a totally bogus stat that should be ignored and done away with. Look at Mattingly's dWAR. He was universally regarded as an all world glove at first base. His career dWAR is -6.2. That can't possibly reflect his play.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by packs

But is that accurate is what I'm getting at. I don't think there is anyone who would look at each player and determine Edman is having a better season. His OPS is below replacement level.

I also think dWAR is a totally bogus stat that should be ignored and done away with. Look at Mattingly's dWAR. He was universally regarded as an all world glove at first base. His career dWAR is -6.2. That can't possibly reflect his play.

If you believe WAR, it's accurate. If you don't, it isn't. Don't know how else to look at it. A 2.8 DWAR is Mark Belanger, Ozzie Smith level, especially considering the season isn't over. Couple that with better than average offense for his position (though as you pointed out slightly below average over all) and WAR says he has virtually identical impact on his team's win total as the offensive stud who is average in the field.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

If you believe WAR, it's accurate. If you don't, it isn't. Don't know how else to look at it. A 2.8 DWAR is Mark Belanger, Ozzie Smith level, especially considering the season isn't over. Couple that with better than average offense for his position (though as you pointed out slightly below average over all) and WAR says he has virtually identical impact on his team's win total as the offensive stud who is average in the field.

But if dWAR isn't an accurate stat then how could a combination of oWAR and dWAR be accurate? Are you saying Mattingly was a negative impact on the field with a glove in his hand?

I'm pretty sure you saw him play same as I did. Did anyone ever say that?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by packs

But if dWAR isn't an accurate stat then how could a combination of oWAR and dWAR be accurate? Are you saying Mattingly was a negative impact on the field with a glove in his hand?

I'm pretty sure you saw him play same as I did. Did anyone ever say that?

He was great at handling throws, and he fielded what he got to. Range Factor says he got to less balls than the average first basemen. Garvey is another one who rarely made errors but didn't have much range so DWAR hates him.

[packs]

He led the league in range factor twice and fielding percentage 4 times. His fielding percentage is 8th best all time at first base. Despite all of these facts, he only posted a positive dWAR once his entire career.

So I do think there is a correction needed to the way that stat is determined.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

https://jeremylehrman.medium.com/dwa...n-3e24a187faf5

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by packs

He led the league in range factor twice and fielding percentage 4 times. His fielding percentage is 8th best all time at first base. Despite all of these facts, he only posted a positive dWAR once his entire career.

So I do think there is a correction needed to the way that stat is determined.

Mattingly appeared in the top 10 in MLB in Range factor at first base 4 times in his career. That's only 4 times he ranked in the top third of all first basemen. He led the majors once, had a 2nd place finish a 5th and a 10th. Over the course of his career he had below average range. If you want to focus on the two outlier seasons that's your prerogative.

Fielding percentage is a VERY flawed number as the guy who gets to nothing but fields the ball hit to him cleanly looks like a stud, whereas the guy who gets to balls the first guy never could, but correspondingly botches a few that the first player wouldn't have even tried for looks like a dog.

[BobC]

After well over 100 years of fighting against players and teams being involved and/or even associating at all with gamblers, MLB figured out a way to partner up and embrace working with the gambling industry so they can make even more money.

Oh wait.......this thread is supposed to be about things that are surprising and relatively unexpected. My bad.

[frankbmd]

Ryne Duren won more games 27 than any other Ryne.
Ryne Sandberg hit the most triples 76, but only led the league once.
Ryne is a thirsty river in Europe.