T206 Sweet Caporal Census Project

[53toppscollector]

1. Abbaticchio (Blue Sleeves) [Print Group 4]



I tinkered with the layout a bit. My aim was to make it easily readable.

The first section of the graphic shows the info from the PSA and SGC pop reports online. I included the SGC row only to show the total number they have graded, since we cannot break down their numbers by factory in their pop reports. For PSA, I included the total number of Sweet Caps graded in column B (155, in this case) and then on the far right column, I included the number graded broken down by factory number in the actual pop report (80, in this case). That essentially means there are 75 copies of this card graded that don't contain the factory number on the flip, or that were not properly added to the PSA pop report. The PSA Pop Report % is the percentage for each factory based on the number that were graded and include the factory number. So for that row for this example, the denominator is 80, as that is the number that were graded and labeled with factory numbers, not 155, which is the total number of SweetCaps that PSA has graded. The 155 column is included just to show the gap between the total graded and the total that were labeled with factory numbers.

The second section of the graphic shows my work cataloging the cards using the VCP website and their scanned images of cards based on sales. The first row is the raw number I found, and the row under it shows the percentage by factory of those that I was able to catalog. It is broken down by PSA, then SGC, and then total. "Not Cataloged" are the scans where I could not definitely tell what the factory number was.

The third section of the graphic shows the "quality control" stats for PSA cards only. I wanted to keep track of how many cards were labeled incompletely or incorrectly. Correct Label with Factory is self-explanatory. The label says SC 460/25 and the back is an SC 460/25. Incorrect PSA label, also self explanatory...the label says SC 460/25 but the back is an SC 460/42OP. T206 Sweet Caporal is a previous generation label where the factory number was not listed, so it was a mystery until I clicked the back. T206 was the original label, without the SweetCap designation at all. A few of those will end up being Piedmonts as well.

I added the date on the right side so I can remember when I collected the data, which will make it easy for me to go back and update, if need be.

And we are off and under way

[53toppscollector]

2. Abbaticchio (Brown Sleeves) [Print Group 1]



Note that on this chart for the SGC population at the top, I merged together the Fac 25/30 cells because SGC does not use factory numbers. So there are 56 cards labeled as 1909 Sweet Caporal, which means they are either 25 or 30. Same applies to the 350 section, and then those 2 numbers give you the 81 total graded copies.

[53toppscollector]

3. Abbott (Print Group 2)



After going through 3 cards, I have been able to make the following ids:

Generic PSA T206 Labels > Factory numbers: 14 (with a whole bunch of Piedmonts mixed in)
Generic PSA Sweet Caporal Labels > Factory numbers: 60


When people get back into the hobby, a card collecting council should send them a pamphlet explaining the importance of flatbed scanners with CCD elements. So many blurry scans. Ugh.

[RCFire82]

James,
Quick rule of thumb I use when looking at psa's pop. report on Sweet Caporals is to use ratios. For example on the Abbaticchio (blue sleeves) above:
Let's say total Sweet Caporals graded is 160 (which is close) and 80 (or exactly half) have been identified with Factory numbers. I would say it's safe to say each Factory graded total, 460 25 (10 total), 460 30 (58 total), and 460 op (12 total) can be multiplied by 2. So one would expect to see an additional 10 460 fac 25's, 58 more 460 fac 30's, and 24 total 460 over prints when examining the 80 earlier non Factory labeled psa graded cards.

[Lobo Aullando]

That's my back-of-the-envelope rule of thumb in a nutshell. (Who doesn't love idioms?)

Also, one doesn't have to do a full census to get a good picture of the whole. A sample of 30 or so would get a pretty good estimate of what those ratios should be. (Picking every 17th card might be better than doing all the A name cards because it's less likely to encounter clustering.) It's even possible to get a good error range with that few.

Originally Posted by RCFire82

James,
Quick rule of thumb I use when looking at psa's pop. report on Sweet Caporals is to use ratios. For example on the Abbaticchio (blue sleeves) above:
Let's say total Sweet Caporals graded is 160 (which is close) and 80 (or exactly half) have been identified with Factory numbers. I would say it's safe to say each Factory graded total, 460 25 (10 total), 460 30 (58 total), and 460 op (12 total) can be multiplied by 2. So one would expect to see an additional 10 460 fac 25's, 58 more 460 fac 30's, and 24 total 460 over prints when examining the 80 earlier non Factory labeled psa graded cards.

Edited to add:


Just following the rules, even though I love the pretty tables.

[53toppscollector]

4. Abstein (Print Group 2)



An interesting note here, I found an Abstein with a "T206 Harris Collection" flip, hadn't seen that before. I think it was a PSA 8 of a Piedmont 350. Cool.

Discoveries within the Abstein scans:

T206 > Factory numbers: 4 (13 Piedmont 350s)
T206 Sweet Caporal > Factory numbers: 11 (1 that was not readable)

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by RCFire82

James,
Quick rule of thumb I use when looking at psa's pop. report on Sweet Caporals is to use ratios. For example on the Abbaticchio (blue sleeves) above:
Let's say total Sweet Caporals graded is 160 (which is close) and 80 (or exactly half) have been identified with Factory numbers. I would say it's safe to say each Factory graded total, 460 25 (10 total), 460 30 (58 total), and 460 op (12 total) can be multiplied by 2. So one would expect to see an additional 10 460 fac 25's, 58 more 460 fac 30's, and 24 total 460 over prints when examining the 80 earlier non Factory labeled psa graded cards.

Yeah, this is kind of how I think about it in my head, but I think the reason I wanted to do this project was just to see if my assumptions generally track across the board, or if there are weird outliers that may not really be known just be using the ratios/estimates. Plus, looking through old scans is actually kind of fun, to be honest.

Originally Posted by Lobo Aullando

Also, one doesn't have to do a full census to get a good picture of the whole. A sample of 30 or so would get a pretty good estimate of what those ratios should be. (Picking every 17th card might be better than doing all the A name cards because it's less likely to encounter clustering.) It's even possible to get a good error range with that few.

Sure, that is fine for estimates. And ballpark estimates are fine for most. I just really want to dig in here and see what kind of things I can uncover by methodically going through everything available. I do understand it is a bit insane

[Prof]

I can't really offer any help. But, I love the undertaking of ideas like this.

It's really cool to see the passion, fun to follow along, and it can produce valuable information for collectors.

Good luck.

[53toppscollector]

5. Adkins (Print Group 2)



Discoveries:

T206 label > Factory number: 1
T206 Sweet Caporal label > Factory number: 10

Of the 35 Adkins PSA scans I looked at, 12 of them had the old "T206" label, and most of them were Piedmont 350s.

We all know the good doctor is one of those cards that was/is hoarded, so I wasn't shocked to find a limited sampling of cards to look at.