T206 Back Scarcity, Pricing, and Other Tidbits

[53toppscollector]

So now that I've had a chance to kind of zoom out and look at the data I put together, I have some thoughts:

* Old Mill is underrated as a back, in general. And it is not just the 150 series HoF, there are so many very low pop Old Mills. Print Group 2 Old Mills are more plentiful (around 30 or so combined copies per front), Print Group 3 are plentiful (around 40-45 per front, on average), but they got tougher in Print Group 4, averaging only about 26 per front. Within Print Group 4 there are a bunch of very tough Old Mills, including 12 subjects that have less than 10 total combined copies. McGraw Glove at Hip has 105 copies of a Sovereign 460 back, but only 8 Old Mills, for instance.

* The American Beauty 460 sub-group is really fascinating to me. The same 12 cards mentioned above in the Old Mill group are very plentiful in AB 460 backs while being very very hard in OM backs. That group is

Crandall With Cap
Devore
Duffy
Ford
Gandil
Geyer
Hummel
McGraw Glove at Hip
Pfeffer
Sheckard Glove Shows
Tannehell (Tannehill on Front)
Wheat

These 12 cards all share a very similar card profile that I find super interesting:

-- AB 460 backs are very plentiful
-- Sovereign 460 backs are very plentiful
-- Tolstoi backs are very plentiful
-- SweetCap Factory 42 backs are very plentiful

-- Old Mill Backs are very scarce
-- EPDG backs are scarce
-- Polar Bear backs are scarce (relatively)
-- Cycle 460 backs are scarce

* Tolstoi backs are either very very rare or very very plentiful as a whole. The average number of Tolstoi examples for all subjects is 17, based on my numbers. However, there are 50 subjects with a pop of 5 or less! Tolstoi is generally not considered rare (by T206 standards) but as we see above in the charts and in the comments, there are a ton of very rare Tolstois out there and I am sure a few more will continue to pop up.

* I know this is bordering on sacrilege, but is it possible that Hindu Brown is.....overrated? According to my numbers, the average combined population for Hindu Brown per front is 20. That isn't Polar Bear, sure, but the average is also higher than Tolstoi, per subject, as noted above. Yet Hindu Browns command a massive premium over all the other moderate off backs. Now, there aren't any fronts that have a massive number of Hindu Browns. I count a total of 11 subjects that have 30 or more combined Hindu Browns:

- Bresnahan Portrait
- Fritz (SL)
- Greminger (SL)
- WaJo Portrait (38 examples, most populous)
- Leifield Pitching
- Lipe (SL)
- McCauley (SL)
- Persons (SL)
- Revelle (SL)
- Shaughnessy (SL) (38 examples, most populous)
- Sullivan

Of those 11, 7 of them are SLers.

On the flip side, there are only 8 subjects that have 10 or fewer Hindu Browns:

- Delehanty (Washington)
- Ewing
- Killian Pitching (7 copies, rarest)
- O'Leary Portrait
- Owen
- Schmidt Throwing
- Stone
- Wilhelm Hands At Chest

For those 8 cards, the Hindu Brown is not the clear cut scarcest back in a number of cases:

- Delehanty (EPDG is more scarce)
- Ewing (Hindu Brown is the most scarce)
- Killian Pitching (Hindu Brown is the most scarce)
- O'Leary Portrait (Old Mill is the most scarce)
- Owen (Old Mill/Hindu Brown are tied for most scarce)
- Schmidt Throwing (Old Mill is the most scarce)
- Stone (Hindu Brown is the most scarce)
- Wilhelm Hands At Chest (Old Mill and Hindu Brown are tied)

Hindu Brown is definitely a rare back, it was only available during the early part of T206 production, but is the price people are willing to pay a bit distorted based on population counts and relative scarcity? Not sure. Maybe?

[HobokenJon]

For the “Exclusive 12,” do your numbers show that these subjects are unusually scarce with Sweet Cap Factory 42 overprint backs? See Duffy, for example. Similarly, do your numbers show these subjects are relatively more plentiful with red Hindu backs? That’s been my experience, and Ted Z has pointed this out many times.

And on a personal note, would some kind soul out there please sell me an EPDG Hummel? Any condition will do!

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by HobokenJon

For the “Exclusive 12,” do your numbers show that these subjects are unusually scarce with Sweet Cap Factory 42 overprint backs? See Duffy, for example. Similarly, do your numbers show these subjects are relatively more plentiful with red Hindu backs? That’s been my experience, and Ted Z has pointed this out many times.

And on a personal note, would some kind soul out there please sell me an EPDG Hummel? Any condition will do!

Here are the numbers I have on the Exclusive 12



* Hindu Red for those averages 16 per front

* The average for the other subjects with a Hindu Red excluding those 12 is only 4. So they are exponentially more populous with Hindu Red backs than the other subjects that have a Hindu Red back

* The SC 460/42 OP average for all fronts that have at least 1 copy is 12, and the average for the Exclusive 12 is 8, so slightly lower. A few are quite rare (Devore, Pfeffer), but of course we don't really know how many of these exist because of labeling issues

[53toppscollector]

One of the big thrills for me, when looking at that last table, is that we should expect to find an Uzit for those remaining where the cell is blank. Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't, and we know that if it does, we'll likely only find a small handful.

Everyone wants to own a Honus Wagner (I do, as well) but what I would really love would be to have old records from ATC that detail print runs, how many were actually made of each, etc. There are so many mysteries and things we don't know, and finding that set of written books/ledgers would be even more exciting to me than the next Drum or Lenox or Uzit find.

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

#1
One of the big thrills for me, when looking at that last table, is that we should expect to find an Uzit for those remaining where the cell is blank. Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't, and we know that if it does, we'll likely only find a small handful.

#2
Everyone wants to own a Honus Wagner (I do, as well) but what I would really love would be to have old records from ATC that detail print runs, how many were actually made of each, etc. There are so many mysteries and things we don't know, and finding that set of written books/ledgers would be even more exciting to me than the next Drum or Lenox or Uzit find.

James

1st
For the past 7 years, I have been working to achieve a complete RUN of the Exclusive 12 group. Five years ago, I acquired the UZIT McGraw
which completed his 13-card run......

. .





Factory #42.....................Factory #42










. . .
Factory #30


The total count for this 460-only Series group is 156 cards. At this point in time, I have over 100 cards into this project. About 50 more to go.
And their UZIT backs will most likely prevent me from attaining this goal.


2nd
I for one do not care to own a Honus Wagner (it is overrated). The thrill I got when I acquired this unique McGraw / UZIT card was tremendous.

Furthermore, so was my acquisition of Eddie Plank....SWEET CAPORAL 150 (Factory #30)


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[HobokenJon]

Grazie.

You’re right about brown Hindu backs being overrated, of course. But they look so, so cool.

When I look at the numbers, the glaring candidates for most overrated are the Polar Bear Demmitt and O’Hara. I realize these subjects are less common than most Piedmont and Sweet Cap backs, and it’s also true that every 520 set needs both. But they are not rare. A Tolstoi Demmitt (N.Y.) is far rarer than a Polar Bear Demmitt (St. Louis), just as an Old Mill Magee is much scarcer than a Piedmont Magie error card. Maybe someday more Monster collectors will care.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by HobokenJon

Grazie.

You’re right about brown Hindu backs being overrated, of course. But they look so, so cool.

When I look at the numbers, the glaring candidates for most overrated are the Polar Bear Demmitt and O’Hara. I realize these subjects are less common than most Piedmont and Sweet Cap backs, and it’s also true that every 520 set needs both. But they are not rare. A Tolstoi Demmitt (N.Y.) is far rarer than a Polar Bear Demmitt (St. Louis), just as an Old Mill Magee is much scarcer than a Piedmont Magie error card. Maybe someday more Monster collectors will care.

I'm of two minds on the O'Hara and Demmitt. I mean, the only way to get that FRONT is to get a Polar Bear back, and there are a finite number of them available, thus, limiting the ability to get a complete 520 set to whatever the actual population is on those 2 cards. My counts from a few months ago have Demmitt at 292 and O'Hara at 269. There is a raw Demmitt on ebay now. Where I do agree though is that the Southern Leaguers, though expensive, are FAR less expensive despite their low population counts. For example, the 10 cards with the lowest TOTAL populations (all fronts/backs) are

O'Hara STL (269)
Demmitt STL (292)
Cranston (366)
Violat (379)
Helm (389)
Mullaney (391)
Ryan (411)
Hickman (422)
Perdue (423)
Greminger (426)

There are about 100 more copies of a Cranston compared to O'Hara STL. That is a difference....but is it that huge of a difference? You can pick up a Cranston in low grade for less than $150-200. O'Hara STL goes for like $3k-4k now.

Theoretically, the max number of T206 520 card sets is 269.....obviously there are likely a bunch of raw copies out there, and I suspect some of the cards have been crossed over so the 269 is close, but not exact. If we say 300, that means there can only be 300 sets of 520, which does make that card pretty important, all things considered. Assuming you care about a 520 set, of course

The idea of putting together a master set is really interesting. I assume David Hall gave up on his project because he started to hit a lot of the 1 of 1s and when he found who had the card and they said they wouldn't sell, he didn't want to wait 5 years to see if another copy surfaced.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I'm of two minds on the O'Hara and Demmitt. I mean, the only way to get that FRONT is to get a Polar Bear back, and there are a finite number of them available, thus, limiting the ability to get a complete 520 set to whatever the actual population is on those 2 cards. My counts from a few months ago have Demmitt at 292 and O'Hara at 269. There is a raw Demmitt on ebay now. Where I do agree though is that the Southern Leaguers, though expensive, are FAR less expensive despite their low population counts. For example, the 10 cards with the lowest TOTAL populations (all fronts/backs) are

O'Hara STL (269)
Demmitt STL (292)
Cranston (366)
Violat (379)
Helm (389)
Mullaney (391)
Ryan (411)
Hickman (422)
Perdue (423)
Greminger (426)

There are about 100 more copies of a Cranston compared to O'Hara STL. That is a difference....but is it that huge of a difference? You can pick up a Cranston in low grade for less than $150-200. O'Hara STL goes for like $3k-4k now.

Theoretically, the max number of T206 520 card sets is 269.....obviously there are likely a bunch of raw copies out there, and I suspect some of the cards have been crossed over so the 269 is close, but not exact. If we say 300, that means there can only be 300 sets of 520, which does make that card pretty important, all things considered. Assuming you care about a 520 set, of course

The idea of putting together a master set is really interesting. I assume David Hall gave up on his project because he started to hit a lot of the 1 of 1s and when he found who had the card and they said they wouldn't sell, he didn't want to wait 5 years to see if another copy surfaced.

James, I think there are far more than 100 copies of Cranston compared to O'hara. I know there's raw Demmitt on Ebay now but that one was even an attempted grade. You rarely see a Demmitt or O'hara that's not graded today but there are lots of ungraded southern leaguers. A search I just did on ebay resulted in 77 graded and 38 ungraded southern leaguers.


I just did a quick search of past sales for Demmitt, O'hara and Cranston this is the graded vs ungraded numbers

Cranston 322 total
250 - graded
72 - ungraded

Demmitt 234 total
223 graded
11 - ungraded

O'Hara 210 total
206 graded
4 - ungraded

[53toppscollector]

Sure, there are definitely more copies of Cranston than there are O'Hara, but I guess the question is, how many more? From your numbers, there were 112 more sales of the Cranston than O'Hara. So there are more, definitely. But, do you think are, say 600 Cranstons in total? 700? If there are, say, 50% more Cranstons than what shows up on the combined pop report, then are there are also 50% more copies of a more common card like Herbie Moran?

My point was more, the O'Hara/Demmitt are very rare. But based on population reports, the Southern Leaguers are also very rare but do not command anywhere near that premium. An O'Hara costs basically 20x a Southern Leaguer, and if you map that out, then 20x the population would be like 5300, and I think we can agree there aren't 5300 copies of Cranston out there.

It is all relative, obviously. My point was only that in degrees of rarity, the pricing never seems to line up properly.