Are graded cards the future of vintage?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Not looking to resale for a profit as I’m a true collector. Leaning more to do it for 20,30,40 years from now when my grandkids inherit them , they they won’t be taken advantage of some card dealer/card shop because as mentioned above, graded cards are becoming more popular by the day and I’m starting to think that years from now a box of vintage raw wine being in the save money as a bunch of vintage graded cards)

If you're looking to sell in 20+ years, graded doesn't matter at all. The trendy slab then won't be the trendy slab now; just as PSA and SGC cards from 20 years ago sell for quite a bit less than more recently graded ones as their standards change and shift.

Heck, in 20-40 years, the odds are pretty good that grading will be done by a machine program, and eyeball graded cards will be heavily frowned upon. Collect now, grade in 20-40 years when you divest.

[homerunhitter]

Don’t want to leave the grading burden on my family when they inherit my collection in 20,30, 40 years. They will have enough to deal with instead of worrying how to submit cards for grading.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Don’t want to leave the grading burden on my family when they inherit my collection in 20,30, 40 years. They will have enough to deal with instead of worrying how to submit cards for grading.

Then cross your fingers nothing changes as technology evolves.

[homerunhitter]

You are absolutely right and this is a valid point. I totally get it and agree with you however, the other side of the coin is if cards aren’t graded now, you and I both know some 37 year old card dealer they still lives in his parents basement posting video Games and eating Cheetos and drinking Mountain Dew all day is going to try to take advantage of families that are trying to sell their loved ones collection because it will be way to easy to tell someone that doesn’t know about cards “hey, this stuff isn’t in good condition” I’ll give you $50 for it all! Hard to do that when they are all graded already. Plus most of the big name consignment services like probstein, only deal with graded cards. They won’t even accept raw cards if you sent them in (if a family decided to send in their loved ones cards) and like mentioned above some of the bigger card dealers/shops that I’ve dealt with totally took advantage of me because my cards were raw and not graded. (Offering to buy my cards for Pennies on the dollar!) so it is peace of mind for the most part but your right if technology changes and it will. This topic/conversation might all be a mute point anyway as people would want the most current form of graded technology.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

You are absolutely right and this is a valid point. I totally get it and agree with you however, the other side of the coin is if cards aren’t graded now, you and I both know some 37 year old card dealer they still lives in his parents basement posting video Games and eating Cheetos and drinking Mountain Dew all day is going to try to take advantage of families that are trying to sell their loved ones collection because it will be way to easy to tell someone that doesn’t know about cards “hey, this stuff isn’t in good condition” I’ll give you $50 for it all! Hard to do that when they are all graded already. Plus most of the big name consignment services like probstein, only deal with graded cards. They won’t even accept raw cards if you sent them in (if a family decided to send in their loved ones cards) and like mentioned above some of the bigger card dealers/shops that I’ve dealt with totally took advantage of me because my cards were raw and not graded. (Offering to buy my cards for Pennies on the dollar!) so it is peace of mind for the most part but your right if technology changes and it will. This topic/conversation might all be a mute point anyway as people would want the most current form of graded technology.

Include a sentence in your will highlighting the estimated general range value. Attach a 1 page document to your will telling them to go to X hobby friend for advice. Heck, you could write a 1 sentence notice: “The baseball cards are worth ~$100,000 at the time of writing (date). Do not sell to the first offer, post on Net54 upon my demise for advice on grading and auction houses”. You could do a longer one pager and periodically update it with the trendy grader of the moment and the trendy auction house of the moment to go talk too. There is absolutely no reason people need to get suckered so easily. Just a general notice like this will do it; I’m sure your heirs would do a little work for a big pay day. The person inheriting the bulk of mine is aware what to do, and I have such documents and a short provision in my Will to make it abundantly clear.

[homerunhitter]

Thanks for the great info. I appreciate it very much. That is a great option that I didn’t think about or consider. I was thinking also that if I got them graded now, then whoever gets my collection can drive/fly out to a big dealer like Burbank sports cards , or even the pawn stars shop in Vegas! Or even box them up and send them if to probstein for consignment. My though was if they are graded it would be easier to drop of a box of graded to figure out a price and sell vs drop of a box of ungraded raw cards for the same purpose. I appreciate your thoughts on this.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Thanks for the great info. I appreciate it very much. That is a great option that I didn’t think about or consider. I was thinking also that if I got them graded now, then whoever gets my collection can drive/fly out to a big dealer like Burbank sports cards , or even the pawn stars shop in Vegas! Or even box them up and send them if to probstein for consignment. My though was if they are graded it would be easier to drop of a box of graded to figure out a price and sell vs drop of a box of ungraded raw cards for the same purpose. I appreciate your thoughts on this.

If you go to Burbank or a pawn shop, you’ll get Pennie’s on the dollar. Consign it to an auction house, sell via a top eBay consigned (Greg Morris for raw), but never to a dealer. The dealer has to pay well below market in order to turn a profit; it’s almost always the least profitable means.

There’s nothing wrong with raw or graded, do it however you like, but if the concern is for your heirs and you don’t expect to need to divest for 20+ years, you’ll want to grade later and get them in whatever the hot slab of the future is. 20 year old slabs don’t do so well these days, and that’s without any real major change to grading in the last 20 years. The signs point to software grading coming. Your heirs will likely net a lot more that way. Raw will likely sell lower if kept raw, but they also cost less. If you’re doing high end cards, graded today might be the smarter move. If you’re doing cards that are $10, $50, $350 type items, you’ll probably do better by just getting the cards you like now and grading the better ones in 20 years.

[homerunhitter]

So now I must ask the question of the decade! Based on all of the above info given in regards to old slabs vs newer slabs, may I ask, do you think an older slabbed psa card or a raw card will have more value in the future? Thanks

[BobC]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

So now I must ask the question of the decade! Based on all of the above info given in regards to old slabs vs newer slabs, may I ask, do you think an older slabbed psa card or a raw card will have more value in the future? Thanks

It is not an easy, simple yes or no question. Probably the only truly correct answer being "maybe". It will most likely depend a lot on what the raw or graded card looks like, and if graded, whether it appears over or under graded. Can then further depend on what the reason a person looking to acquire a particular card is. Are they looking for a nice presenting card for their collection, a possible candidate for resubmitting for a grade bump, a card doctor looking for potential candidates to work on, a Registry geek looking for a particular grade with no thought or concern as to the real condition or appearance of the card itself, and so on.

Intrinsically though, if there are two of the exact same card, in exactly the same identical condition, with the only difference being one is graded and the other is not, the graded card will most likely always have a higher value simply because someone already paid for the grading!

[raulus]

Certainly with high value, high grade cards, or cards that are susceptible to faking and/or tampering, then graded is almost always going to be more valuable than raw.

If you’re talking about the average low or even mid grade common card, then there’s probably not a gigantic difference in pricing.

[homerunhitter]

Any new updates or thoughts?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Any new updates or thoughts?

Nothing has really changed here for 20 years. They have been the fiscal favorite for decades and it is very unlikely to change without some paradigm breaking event.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Nothing has really changed here for 20 years. They have been the fiscal favorite for decades and it is very unlikely to change without some paradigm breaking event.

Agreed. And given that all the revelations of the last few years have not changed the paradigm one iota, it is difficult to see what could.