T206 Back Scarcity, Pricing, and Other Tidbits

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by RCFire82

* Looking at these summaries, a few things jump out to me. Across the 4 main groups (Commons, Toughies, HoF, HOFE), the higher the grade, the lower the multiplier. This seems counterintuitive to me. Higher grades = lower population counts, which you would think would drive more competition and a higher hammer price relative to the common Piedmont/Sweet Cap back, but that isn't the case, for the most part.

Super interesting info here, great work James!

A quick thought that jumped out to me about the diminishing multiplier with higher grades, is the fact there may be less competition (in terms of # of bidders) as people start getting priced out..thus bringing that curve down.

Myself, trying to build a raw set, I'm curios what raw card sold history would look like? (Or if this data is even something you could gather)

-Ryan

Raw card data would be amazing, but unfortunately, I don't know of any way to really do it. ebay only shows you the last 90 days of sales under completed listings, and that would be limited to just ebay. Most of the big auction houses don't sell raw singles, everything is graded, but they do sell lots/collections of raw cards, but parsing out that info would be really tedious.

If there is a better way to get automated or semi-automated raw card sales data, I would be all ears. I too am focused on a raw set, and when I look at the raw values, I just have to estimate and assume a small discount from an equivalent grade down to a raw card. So if a PSA 3 sells for $100, I would expect to pay like $80-90 for a similarish condition raw card. Its very inexact in that way, of course.

[53toppscollector]

Added this graphic to the end of Entry #2 in the first post, this is the last thing I have for right now. I pulled out all of the subjects that had at least 10 data points to look at, that is, sales of 10 different front/off back/grade combos. These are the multipliers. None of these had a Hindu Brown sale, so I just omitted that from the chart to make it fit into the post without having to scroll a ton. Enjoy

[jggames]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Added this graphic to the end of Entry #2 in the first post, this is the last thing I have for right now. I pulled out all of the subjects that had at least 10 data points to look at, that is, sales of 10 different front/off back/grade combos. These are the multipliers. None of these had a Hindu Brown sale, so I just omitted that from the chart to make it fit into the post without having to scroll a ton. Enjoy

This is all awesome info, well done. Am I reading this chart correctly when I see a yellow Chance CYC350 PSA1 for $208 (1.0 mult.)? If so, that’s an amazing deal, that Chance is one of those cases when the 350 is tougher than the 460.

[53toppscollector]

Correct, it actually sold back in June on BIN, and my guess is it got snapped up quickly

https://www.ebay.com/itm/195144890408

[RCFire82]

Wasn't trying to skew the numbers...

[Bridwell]

Fabulous work, guys! This is an awesome thread!

[jggames]

Originally Posted by RCFire82

Wasn't trying to skew the numbers...

Yeah he’s a fun one. Here’s mine.

It might be worth using CardTarget for some of these with low samples.

http://www.cardtarget.com/cards/146129

[Leon]

Nice research. Thanks for sharing..
.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by rcfire82

wasn't trying to skew the numbers...

lol
.