Baseball stats

[familytoad]

Sorta funny to think any random player hitting in front of Ruth (or Mantle in the Kubek/Richardson example) would score 100 runs since the sluggers would have to get meaningless RBI to knock in the meaningless run scorers :-) :-)

Hope you are doing well Greg!
Happy 4th!

[Mark17]

I think the game has changed so much that runs scored means something a little different now.

It used to be that some guys, hitting at the top of the order especially, could create runs, by drawing a walk or bunting themselves on, stealing a base, taking an extra base on a single to right, distracting the pitcher into making a poor, or wild, pitch. One year, Rod Carew manufactured 7 runs by stealing home. For these guys, scoring runs was probably the biggest value they contributed to their teams.

But since about the beginning of The Steroid Era, it seems like the general idea is to get on base and wait for someone to knock you home. Compare a guy like Ty Cobb, grinding his teeth like he's going to smash the ball, but suddenly catching the defense by surprise with a bunt down the line. He dances off first, distracting the pitcher. Then he goes - and is safe at second. Sam Crawford gets an infield single moving Ty over to third. He takes a daring lead, draws a couple throws, then Crawford breaks for second and on the throw, Ty dashes home and scores. Back in those days, that one run might be all that was needed to win the game.

Then there's John Kruk in 1993, scoring 100 runs on just 6 SB. He gets on base and sits there until Dave Hollins or Darren Daulton drives him in. In this case, runs scored are almost an incidental stat. On base percentage matters, but scoring runs is totally dependent on the guys behind in the order. Just a matter of being on base at the right time.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Then there's John Kruk in 1993, scoring 100 runs on just 6 SB. He gets on base and sits there until Dave Hollins or Darren Daulton drives him in. In this case, runs scored are almost an incidental stat. On base percentage matters, but scoring runs is totally dependent on the guys behind in the order. Just a matter of being on base at the right time.

You tend to be on base at the right time more often, the more times you get on base.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

You tend to be on base at the right time more often, the more times you get on base.

Right, that's why on base percentage matters. But once you're on base, nowadays, you don't have to do anything except wait.

[Jim65]

I don't know anyone who thinks batting average means nothing. Its just not a good judge of a players value. Batting average counts all hits the same, singles are the same as home runs. Hank Aaron and Rusty Greer are both .305 career hitters, does anyone think they are similar players?

[Mike D.]

I don't think runs scored is a bad thing by any means...but like a lot of stats, like pitchers wins and RBI's, there's a recognition that it's not 100% an individual statistic.

Having more of them is a good thing, having less of them is less good, but there's shades of gray in between.

[Rad_Hazard]

I'm not sure about runs scored, but I do find a lot of value in the runs created formula.

Statistic Description: Runs Created A set of formulas developed by Bill James and others that estimates a player’s total contributions to a team’s runs total. This is computed with the "technical" formula when possible. If SB or CS data is missing, the "basic" formula is used. If HBP, IBB, SH, SF, or GIDP data is missing, the "stolen base" version of the formula is used.

Runs Created was developed by Bill James back in the late 1970's as a method to determine offensive performance.

The basic formula is base hits plus walks, multiplied by total bases; the result is then divided by at bats plus walks. The general format of the formula is times on base, multiplied by bases advanced, divided by opportunities.

James developed several different versions of the formula, the most well-known of these is the Technical version. The formula for this version is:

On Base = Hits + Walks + Hit Batsmen - Caught Stealing - Grounded into Double Plays

Bases Advanced = Total bases + .26 (Walks + Hit Batsmen - Intentional Walks) + .52 (Sac. Hits + Sac. Flies + Stolen Bases)

Opportunities = At bats + Walks + Hit Batsmen + Sac. Hits + Sac. Flies

With this I created a spreadsheet and divided Runs Created by PA and came up with what I refer to as "Density", which should show how potent each batter was in their allotted PA's. No stat is perfect, but I really like this list. I could only fit the first 37 in the screenshot, but you get the idea.