Does The Stock Market Influence Your Vintage Purchases?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

A PWCC premier auction just closed. In it were two cards that sold a year prior. These are the same exact cards being sold again (not just same grade, but exact same cards)

One was a 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson, PSA 8. It sold in REA’s spring 2021 auction for $384,000 and the exact same card just sold in PWCC’s auction for $276,000.

Meanwhile, a t206 Magie error, PSA 2 sold in Heritage in May of 2021 for $20,400, and the exact same card just sold in PWCC for $24,000, a record for the grade

The Jackie is down 28% in a year and the Magie error (again same exact cards) is up 17.5% over the same period.

I understand it’s only one example, but it is interesting considering both are major cards, both were sold in major AH in spring 2021 and both were sold by same AH a few days ago with very different results.

Thoughts?

I don't think you can draw valuable conclusions from PWCC results. If they are actual sales at all, the fact is that many collectors will not transact with PWCC. That said, I do think we had a peak on many postwar cards last year and that since then is when prewar hitched its ride in the price rocket. I think that ride is leveling off as to mainstream prewar cards. Rare stuff, that always sets its own levels.

[Lorewalker]

PWCC is the last place I would look for meaningful auction data. As pointed out, REA ending will give an idea of where a couple sectors of the market are. It is no shock that demand is suffering so I expect most commodity cards to be lower. Prices adjusting and demand being lower are both expected in an atmosphere that we are in.

All markets are fluid but usually the best time to sell is the worst time to buy.

[Directly]

If interest rates hit 15-20 percent again, if you have any variable rates debt, a bunch of credit card debt the banks are exuberant, they will make a lot of money (if they don't have a record amount of fore-closures) If you cant pay most or whole balances due, your screwed.

[Johnny630]

I think late 4th quarter or early next year the fed will reverse course and stop or slightly cut a small amount. I don’t see inflation this high lasting longer then late summer early fall. There is a very good chance of a Soft landing imo.

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

There is a very good chance of a Soft landing imo.

What are your credentials, Johnny? I hope your humble opinion is accurate. However, a recent poll showed that most (~ 70%) top economists are predicting a recession within the next 18 months.

[Exhibitman]

Top economists have successfully predicted 15 of the last 9 recessions.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Directly

If interest rates hit 15-20 percent again, if you have any variable rates debt, a bunch of credit card debt the banks are exuberant, they will make a lot of money (if they don't have a record amount of fore-closures) If you cant pay most or whole balances due, your screwed.

Heck, if T bills hit 6%-7% again I am going to punch a large amount into them and hold for the long haul.