Does The Stock Market Influence Your Vintage Purchases?

[ahmanfan]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

It’s gonna vary. Some stuff is gonna crater (overproduced modern). Last place I'd want to be right now is holding a stack of shiny crap basketball. Ditto all of the mainstream postwar PSA 7-8 level cards. I'm selling off everything marginal at that level except for the guys I really collect (Aaron, Koufax, Ryan, etc.) or the cards i got when I was a kid. At the depth of the last go-round I was picking up that sort of stuff for as low as $1.99 a card, slabbed. Made really nice profits turning those out during the bubble.

Some stuff won’t budge. A T206 Wagner isn’t gonna fall because the market for it is like the art market: people with so much money that inflation and recession are just gnat bites. Absolute rarities too. A card with a handful of examples will be a hold and you will be able to name your price. As always. I have never been squeamish about those kinds of cards because I know that there are buyers.

The squeeze will be in the middle. Abundant stuff will take a hit. Even the good stuff. I'd guess that a 40%-60% decline is in store for most mainstream cards that are basically demand driven. Personally, I am looking forward to a nice, fat decline on some cards. 1959 Topps Bob Gibson, you will be mine again!

The other thing that won't be affected--that will in fact do well--are cheap vintage cards. The dollar boxes. Collectors need their fixes. During the last one the dollar boxes were where all the action was at the shows.

The real question for me is what is a long term keeper. I think a well curated collection emphasizing top players and rare cards will be a great performer as long as you’ve gotten in well below the peak. Even a marquee card is a bad buy at the wrong price. The question is whether I want to play the arbitrage game with a card by selling it now and hoping to repurchase it after the decline. I am disinclined to do that with cards I always dreamt of owning: to finally get one that presents nicely, I am happy to own it for a decade or more. If it goes up a bunch in ten years, fantastic. I can seem really prescient and smart. If it doesn't, I can play with it until I am food for worms. Either works for me. Owning a great card isn't like taking a position in a stock. I can't play with 100 shares of Tesla but I can sure as hell play with my cards:

Great post. On the sell and hope to purchase later dilemma. It’s tough because eBay/PayPal fees and/or taxes eat up with a big chunk.

[Rhotchkiss]

A PWCC premier auction just closed. In it were two cards that sold a year prior. These are the same exact cards being sold again (not just same grade, but exact same cards)

One was a 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson, PSA 8. It sold in REA’s spring 2021 auction for $384,000 and the exact same card just sold in PWCC’s auction for $276,000.

Meanwhile, a t206 Magie error, PSA 2 sold in Heritage in May of 2021 for $20,400, and the exact same card just sold in PWCC for $24,000, a record for the grade

The Jackie is down 28% in a year and the Magie error (again same exact cards) is up 17.5% over the same period.

I understand it’s only one example, but it is interesting considering both are major cards, both were sold in major AH in spring 2021 and both were sold by same AH a few days ago with very different results.

Thoughts?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

A PWCC premier auction just closed. In it were two cards that sold a year prior. These are the same exact cards being sold again (not just same grade, but exact same cards)

One was a 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson, PSA 8. It sold in REA’s spring 2021 auction for $384,000 and the exact same card just sold in PWCC’s auction for $276,000.

Meanwhile, a t206 Magie error, PSA 2 sold in Heritage in May of 2021 for $20,400, and the exact same card just sold in PWCC for $24,000, a record for the grade

The Jackie is down 28% in a year and the Magie error (again same exact cards) is up 17.5% over the same period.

I understand it’s only one example, but it is interesting considering both are major cards, both were sold in major AH in spring 2021 and both were sold by same AH a few days ago with very different results.

Thoughts?

Great Post
I made a post about this on Facebook Yesterday here is my take on it 👍

The Tale of The Past Two Years to Where are We are at now. 1952 Topps PSA 8 Jackie Robinson this beautiful Example Sold 4/18/2021 in REA for $384,000. Just over a year ago. Yesterday PWCC Premier Auction Ended with the Same Exact Card, selling for $276,000. Was it a good buy a year ago at that price ? I’m not sure. It is my opinion this is the best PSA 8 of recent past 5 years to come to auction, I think the investor tried to bump the card, PSA didn’t bump it but I thought it had a shot.

Where have all the PWCC Pumping Fanboys Gone ? Is the fanboy vault crowd gone?

I wonder if Heritage Goldin PWCC are you still taking Bitcoin’s?

The Big Money Investment Guys Are Definitely Concerned and Paying Attention to the current state of the US Economy and Card Market.
If only the investor would have held a few more years it’s my option this is a great long term investment and this would have easily sold for more in a strong market.

Just my take great card.

[Exhibitman]

Fascinating articles and podcasts breaking out right now (Fortune, NYT, etc.) about the everything bubble bursting. In a nutshell, in that analysis, for most of the past 14 years, monetary policy in the U.S. and internationally has been consistently setting interest rates low and letting money flow to commercial banks by buying up assets and stocks. That spurred economic growth in the face of several economic crises but also led to multiple economic bubbles—from housing to crypto to VC-backed subsidies for things like cheap Uber prices—existing at once. Now, all those bubbles are popping as banks tighten their policies and stop the free flow of cash. At the same time, the cost of goods that are at the core of upper middle class life--medical care, elder care, education and housing--have gone up at rates far in excess of the traditional rate of inflation and far in excess of wage and income growth for the vast majority. There has also been a camouflaging of inflation in two respects: (1) outsourcing the actual costs of 'cheap' consumer goods to other countries or the commons (environment), and (2) asset value growth. If you buy a t-shirt made in China for $1.99 but it is made from cotton harvested by slave-like labor and grown in a way that wrecks the environment in China, you don't experience those costs but they are real. In our bailiwick, if the cost of a 1952 Mays goes from $600 to $4,000 in a year or two, that cripples the ability of an average collector to buy it...aka inflation. But we see the inflation of investment assets as growth...if we re on the ownership side of the equation.

One other issue that has been researched and is being raised with regard to crypto and stock like AMC (and modern cards are similar) is that the market is being driven by younger, less sophisticated, less wealthy people. They are making big bets on these assets with little experience or knowledge because they want "in" on the game. That is a recipe for a crippling downturn when these people start losing. Someone deriving a substantial part of their wealth or income busting and flipping (or selling ancillary services and goods to those people), they are gonna bleed out fast when things lock up or drop and they have to sell into it.

What it says to me is that the frothy card market is a dead man walking, especially for modern, postwar and mainstream stuff. I'm waiting on further mainstream big ticket stuff until 12-18 months from now, which is when I think it will bottom out.

Tomorrow's REA close should be interesting as a bit of a test of where we are with the middle class of the hobby. Only a few cards in there are major auction-type items. The rest are exactly the sort of items that should start to decline when the bubble starts to deflate. The auction in August should tell us even more.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

A PWCC premier auction just closed. In it were two cards that sold a year prior. These are the same exact cards being sold again (not just same grade, but exact same cards)

One was a 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson, PSA 8. It sold in REA’s spring 2021 auction for $384,000 and the exact same card just sold in PWCC’s auction for $276,000.

Meanwhile, a t206 Magie error, PSA 2 sold in Heritage in May of 2021 for $20,400, and the exact same card just sold in PWCC for $24,000, a record for the grade

The Jackie is down 28% in a year and the Magie error (again same exact cards) is up 17.5% over the same period.

I understand it’s only one example, but it is interesting considering both are major cards, both were sold in major AH in spring 2021 and both were sold by same AH a few days ago with very different results.

Thoughts?

Nothing surprises me anymore
.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

A PWCC premier auction just closed. In it were two cards that sold a year prior. These are the same exact cards being sold again (not just same grade, but exact same cards)

One was a 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson, PSA 8. It sold in REA’s spring 2021 auction for $384,000 and the exact same card just sold in PWCC’s auction for $276,000.

Meanwhile, a t206 Magie error, PSA 2 sold in Heritage in May of 2021 for $20,400, and the exact same card just sold in PWCC for $24,000, a record for the grade

The Jackie is down 28% in a year and the Magie error (again same exact cards) is up 17.5% over the same period.

I understand it’s only one example, but it is interesting considering both are major cards, both were sold in major AH in spring 2021 and both were sold by same AH a few days ago with very different results.

Thoughts?

I don't think you can draw valuable conclusions from PWCC results. If they are actual sales at all, the fact is that many collectors will not transact with PWCC. That said, I do think we had a peak on many postwar cards last year and that since then is when prewar hitched its ride in the price rocket. I think that ride is leveling off as to mainstream prewar cards. Rare stuff, that always sets its own levels.

[Lorewalker]

PWCC is the last place I would look for meaningful auction data. As pointed out, REA ending will give an idea of where a couple sectors of the market are. It is no shock that demand is suffering so I expect most commodity cards to be lower. Prices adjusting and demand being lower are both expected in an atmosphere that we are in.

All markets are fluid but usually the best time to sell is the worst time to buy.

[Directly]

If interest rates hit 15-20 percent again, if you have any variable rates debt, a bunch of credit card debt the banks are exuberant, they will make a lot of money (if they don't have a record amount of fore-closures) If you cant pay most or whole balances due, your screwed.

[Johnny630]

I think late 4th quarter or early next year the fed will reverse course and stop or slightly cut a small amount. I don’t see inflation this high lasting longer then late summer early fall. There is a very good chance of a Soft landing imo.

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

There is a very good chance of a Soft landing imo.

What are your credentials, Johnny? I hope your humble opinion is accurate. However, a recent poll showed that most (~ 70%) top economists are predicting a recession within the next 18 months.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Directly

If interest rates hit 15-20 percent again, if you have any variable rates debt, a bunch of credit card debt the banks are exuberant, they will make a lot of money (if they don't have a record amount of fore-closures) If you cant pay most or whole balances due, your screwed.

Heck, if T bills hit 6%-7% again I am going to punch a large amount into them and hold for the long haul.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

A PWCC premier auction just closed. In it were two cards that sold a year prior. These are the same exact cards being sold again (not just same grade, but exact same cards)

One was a 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson, PSA 8. It sold in REA’s spring 2021 auction for $384,000 and the exact same card just sold in PWCC’s auction for $276,000.

Meanwhile, a t206 Magie error, PSA 2 sold in Heritage in May of 2021 for $20,400, and the exact same card just sold in PWCC for $24,000, a record for the grade

The Jackie is down 28% in a year and the Magie error (again same exact cards) is up 17.5% over the same period.

I understand it’s only one example, but it is interesting considering both are major cards, both were sold in major AH in spring 2021 and both were sold by same AH a few days ago with very different results.

Thoughts?

This anecdotal evidence could be indicative of the underlying market: that prewar is fairing better than post war.

However, I would say a better test would be two items of similar value head to head, Once you get into mid 6 figures on a card, the market is so much thinner, one day/year/card can totally be different than the next depending on who is bidding. I think the more liquid 4 and 5 figure market is more telling of the card market in general terms.