The 1952 Topps Mantle is Overpriced and Over-hyped

[jingram058]

A few more months of high as Hell prices for everything and gas as well, we'll see where things like baseball cards go. Those deep pockets might just dry up.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by jingram058

A few more months of high as Hell prices for everything and gas as well, we'll see where things like baseball cards go. Those deep pockets might just dry up.

Oh, I'm not predicting doom or anything like that. I just think the prices being posted here are giving others the wrong idea about this card.

[AndrewJerome]

Wrong idea in what way? Your last post showed a 4 for $90k. Clearly $100k for a 6 is a pipe dream. The card has exploded in value in all grades. Anything to the contrary is just wishful thinking.

Andrew

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by AndrewJerome

Wrong idea in what way? Your last post showed a 4 for $90k. Clearly $100k for a 6 is a pipe dream. The card has exploded in value in all grades. Anything to the contrary is just wishful thinking.

Andrew

Well said. What is key to hang a lantern on in this discussion is that in this day and age, we can no longer lump all cards in the same grade into the same price-zone. The premiums paid for eye appeal and centering— not just for this particular card but for many others in the hobby— make the prettiest examples totally unique animals with their own behavior when they hit the auction block.

As per the data below, if a nice 5 was 156k and a stronger one— though clearly not top end or perfectly centered— was 180k, then a truly perfectly centered 6 will hammer around 250k or higher. We will only know when and if such a specimen hits the block.

As I mentioned in a prior post, last year a PSA 3 with freakish A+ eye appeal went for $163,000. So it is paramount these days to examine the specific card in question. The old days of "all Grade X's costing Y" are over and gone. We can cherry pick a tilted, poorly centered, or poorly colored card and it may seem like prices are softening. We can cherry pick a gorgeous, lights-out centered card and yet that won't mean all cards in that grade are exploding.

These days, it all comes down to the specific, individual card and its unique combination of technical grade and eye appeal/centering. And frankly this collector thinks that is how it should be. The technical grade is but one component and opinion, and does not necessarily speak to beauty. And a great many buyers out there will pay for beauty to their eye over the grade.

[pokerplyr80]

There is a huge difference between what an off centered card like that heritage psa 4 went for, and what a dead centered example would bring. If we're assuming that's the value, 90k for an off centered tilted 4, I'd put a dead centered between 175-200k.

When I say a 6 would bring 300k+ I dont mean just any 6. This would need basically 50/50 centering.

There used to be a saying around here, not sure if it's still used much, but it was buy the card, not the holder. That is what people do with this particular card more so than most others. The grade still matters, but there would be a wide expected price range for each grade based on eye appeal and centering. A dead centered 4 would go for as much if not more than a very off center 6.

Edit: I didn't see Matt's post when I wrote this one, but he did a much better job explaining the point I was trying to make.

[Foo3112]

Here is my 52 Mantle that I rarely (if ever) have shown. I purchased at the 2019 National. I walked the whole floor and I only found one more PSA 6 at a table. Plenty of PSA 1 & 2. A few 3's but after that, it was slim pickings. The color was not a bright on the other PSA 6. It had softer corners than this one. They were asking 80K. I paid much more for this copy and I would prefer to keep that amount to myself (respectively). I will say that it was under 100K however. Since 2021, there hasn't been one that has sold for under 100K - regardless of how bad the color or centering is. Also, PSA 6's don't often show up for sale and the ones that do aren't attractive to the eye. Heritage recently sold a hideous PSA 5 for $105K. I personally would value this 6 between $170K-$200K.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

There is a huge difference between what an off centered card like that heritage psa 4 went for, and what a dead centered example would bring. If we're assuming that's the value, 90k for an off centered tilted 4, I'd put a dead centered between 175-200k.

When I say a 6 would bring 300k+ I dont mean just any 6. This would need basically 50/50 centering.

There used to be a saying around here, not sure if it's still used much, but it was buy the card, not the holder. That is what people do with this particular card more so than most others. The grade still matters, but there would be a wide expected price range for each grade based on eye appeal and centering. A dead centered 4 would go for as much if not more than a very off center 6.

I hear you. Yesterday I was at the Toronto Expo and I saw a beautiful Mantle in VG-EX shape that could easily grade a PSA 4. It had deep rich colors. TB was good, but LR was 70/30. I could have walked away with it for 55,000 USD.

[Exhibitman]

Matt said it perfectly: "What is key to hang a lantern on in this discussion is that in this day and age, we can no longer lump all cards in the same grade into the same price-zone. The premiums paid for eye appeal and centering— not just for this particular card but for many others in the hobby— make the prettiest examples totally unique animals with their own behavior when they hit the auction block." I will overpay for a low grade card that has the eye appeal of a card two levels better. Just for giggles, here is one of the best 'yeah but' graded cards i've ever seen:



Small bit of back damage at the bottom.

[jb67]

What MattyC has been driving home for many years is eye-appeal has a different sent of rules to follow. When I first got back into collecting MattyC was one of the posts I always enjoyed reading. I began to appreciate the card as more than just a grade.

One thing that rings true to this day is "buy what you like" (if you are not a flipper/investor) so no matter what the value ends up being you will still enjoy it. I have on several occasions set a new record price (at that time) for what I consider outstanding eye-appeal. Here are a couple of examples. I am pretty certain that if I put these two cards on the market today that they would sell well above the average current prices for the grade.

[tedzan]

1st.....as a dedicated "SET collector".....Yes, this card is '"OVER-PRICED" (and so are most other Star cards in this hobby, nowadays).

"OVER-HYPED"....as a long-time Yankees fan, who saw him play, 1951-1968, I do not think so. Mantle generated a special excitement
very similar to Babe Ruth.


2nd.....I guess I'm one of the few guys on this forum who have experienced the thrill of pulling a Mantle card from a TOPPS wax-pack
in the Fall of 1952.

The two Mantle cards from my Master 1952 TOPPS set......

Type 1 .................................................. .............……............. Type 2

. .
Here are the original 4 cards in my 5-cent pack with
the above Mantle


3rd.....A couple of you have alluded to the "$3000 sale of a Mantle in 1980.
Actually, it was 3 - Mantle cards sold for $3000 each that year. Two young dealers, Bob and Rob, from the Philadelphia area who
operated a monthly Auction in Warrington (PA) sold them. Prior to that sale, the 1952 TOPPS Mantle was selling for $500 (ExMt).


TED Z

T206 Reference
.