Auctions prices in the latest Heritage Auction

[Casey2296]

Pre war as strong as ever, post war getting soft.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Pre war as strong as ever, post war getting soft.

No, it wasn't the strongest example. But plenty of equivalent ones have sold for 2-3K in the last two years. The lot I was most interested in was the complete PSA graded T205 set. I conservatively estimated that had a breakup value of about 100K, though that was definitely on the low end given recent T205 prices. It went for 117K. A solid price, but not a spectacular one.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

No, it wasn't the strongest example. But plenty of equivalent ones have sold for 2-3K in the last two years. The lot I was most interested in was the complete PSA graded T205 set. I conservatively estimated that had a breakup value of about 100K, though that was definitely on the low end given recent T205 prices. It went for 117K. A solid price, but not a spectacular one.

Same thing going on in high cost real estate, deals going for 150k over ask are now going for ask, but the ask price is still high and sellers are getting their price. I do think there was deals to be had like Ryan's Plows Cobb.

[sportscardpete]

Feels like pre-war, high quality cards are as strong as ever. And people have been calling the demise of vintage for many many years. Hard to believe them now.

[jamest206]

I lost out on the main two I was bidding for. Lundgren(was too tired to stay up, long work week). It sold decently, a green Cobb Portrait as well. Probably should have put all my cash on the Lundgren T206 and gave up on the pipe dream I bid of about 6k for the nice SGC A Cobb green portrait. Or forgot about both of these and just went after the 1933 complete Goudey. Prices on this looked really auction looked really good. The thing that did piss me off was some sort of lock up right before overtime on some bids I did want to make. REA has a decent auction going now. My lesson has finally been learned, focus on ONE THING and get it!!!!! The last big REA was the one that surprised me on pricing for the Spring though

[DeanH3]

E93 Cobb PSA 4 $11.5K and an SGC 1.5 just under $4K are strong prices. T206 prices looked strong as well. Maybe we see a pullback later on? We shall see.

[molenick]

I was bidding mainly on Diamond Stars. I managed to win some but found the bidding very competitive and the prices to be strong. There were some "bargains" but they all seemed to be for cards I already had. I think that just means that people collecting this set are all finding the same cards to be difficult (either based on condition or rarity) and are willing to pay to get them.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Same thing going on in high cost real estate, deals going for 150k over ask are now going for ask, but the ask price is still high and sellers are getting their price. I do think there was deals to be had like Ryan's Plows Cobb.

Out of curiosity I looked up the selling price of the Plow's Candy Cobb (great card by the way Ryan), and saw that it had sold for almost exactly 3x the amount the same exact card, in same holder, sold for 6 years ago (in fact exactly six years to the date...kinda cool).

In a normal world (which I mean the past in our hobby) that would be a great profit for the seller, but the market for BIG NAME HOF'ers has, as everyone and their doctor knows, gone nuts the last several years, so yes indeed I think this particular card came at a great bargain price.

Brian

[Rhotchkiss]

Brian, I agree with you. I by no means thought the plow’s Cobb went cheap. This is from VCP and shows psa 4 sales since 2006. They are all the one I bought except the top one which was a different psa 4. I think the card went for about the right amount in this market, and certainly represents a very strong increase in 5 years.

What’s most important to me on this chart is that the card has always increased in value (even is only slightly)

[EddieP]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

What’s most important to me on this chart is that the card has always increased in value (even is only slightly)

Interesting. I’m far from being an expert in this but it appears that this card is mimicking a T-Bill @ ~ 3.0 to 3.5% interest ( with the interest that you would otherwise earn in cash being factored into the price of the card).

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by EddieP

Interesting. I’m far from being an expert in this but it appears that this card is mimicking a T-Bill @ ~ 3.0 to 3.5% interest ( with the interest that you would otherwise earn in cash being factored into the price of the card).

I am not sure what other investments the “return” can be compared to, but I do recognize that it is hardly a home run (going back to 2006) and that there are likely many other, more profitable investments. With cards, I am not going for the home run. Instead, I am going for preservation and safe growth; total bonus that I love cards, I get to hold and show the investment, and get to buy things I think are cool.

For me, the role that cards play is a slow and steady protector and grower of wealth that happens to be really fun and cool. This is why I collect/buy what I do - old and rare items of blue chip HOFers. And, even with this game plan, I sometimes hit home runs, which adds a little “alpha” to an otherwise safe allocation; I also miss sometimes on items but never huge.

If I wanted to day trade, I would buy the shinny stuff. If I wanted a higher return, then I would put my card money elsewhere or maybe into other cards. So, when I see a 15 year history of value increase on a rare Ty Cobb card, I hit the buy button.

[robertsmithnocure]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

Out of curiosity I looked up the selling price of the Plow's Candy Cobb (great card by the way Ryan), and saw that it had sold for almost exactly 3x the amount the same exact card, in same holder, sold for 6 years ago (in fact exactly six years to the date...kinda cool).

In a normal world (which I mean the past in our hobby) that would be a great profit for the seller, but the market for BIG NAME HOF'ers has, as everyone and their doctor knows, gone nuts the last several years, so yes indeed I think this particular card came at a great bargain price.

Brian

I agree with Brian and Ryan also. The E300 Cobb is a great card, but it sold for about what I was expecting. It has the highest population of any of the E300 Plows cards and of the 8 PSA graded examples, there are 5 that are actually graded higher than this one. Also, and not they they always accurate, but Heritage’s estimate was $50K vs the $63K that it realized.

This is not to take anything away from the card at all, but I do not think that it is a good example of Heritage’s prices being soft.