Why has market gone crazy? And outlook?

[japhi]

Demand on everything increased due to easy access to cheap money. The stimulus cheques were great but how many people saw their house appreciate by 100k? Lots, and people leveraged up. Literally everything ran hot. So hot that we can expect money to get significantly more expensive and if the Fed ian’t careful a possible recession.

Not a doomer take but money was cheap and east and folks blew their brains out on debt. That debt is about to get significantly more expensive. Asset prices will follow.

[molenick]

Okay, I hear that. The value of my house went up as well, but that didn't affect my spending. I guess in theory I could have taken out a home equity loan to buy cards or bought cards using my credit card. I didn't, but maybe others did. I am trying very hard to stay away from politics and economic theory because I am not interested in discussing the former on the board and don't know anything about the latter.

So I guess I am left with: I don't know why it happened and don't know what will happen next. But I still love collecting! I just have to collect differently than I used to.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by molenick

Okay, I hear that. The value of my house went up as well, but that didn't affect my spending. I guess in theory I could have taken out a home equity loan to buy cards or bought cards using my credit card. I didn't, but maybe others did.

That's not what happened. Basically, a lot of big money investors saw the card market as an opportunity to manipulate things and cash in. This led to other big money investors coming in. HELOCs aren't driving the purchase of Jordan rookies - fake purchases at $800k (or whatever those two were) are. And so on.

[molenick]

Originally Posted by molenick

I am trying very hard to stay away from politics and economic theory because I am not interested in discussing the former on the board and don't know anything about the latter.

So I guess I am left with: I don't know why it happened and don't know what will happen next.

I stand by these very strong opinions!

[Johnny630]

All I know is I don't wanna bet against non oddball examples of
RUTH
COBB
JACKIE
MICKEY AND WILLIE
in the long run especially higher end these are NOT GOING DOWN. Stick with these 5 names non oddball preferably higher grade and you're going to be very happy.

Prove to me the above statement is not true?????

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by japhi

Demand on everything increased due to easy access to cheap money. The stimulus cheques were great but how many people saw their house appreciate by 100k? Lots, and people leveraged up. Literally everything ran hot. So hot that we can expect money to get significantly more expensive and if the Fed ian’t careful a possible recession.

Not a doomer take but money was cheap and east and folks blew their brains out on debt. That debt is about to get significantly more expensive. Asset prices will follow.

Sounds good, but It doesn't look like the Fed data supports that theory in relation to taking on debt to finance cards.

HELOC loans dropped by $45B from Q3 2020 to Q3 2021. Credit card debt dropped by $3B. Autos up $80B.
New mortgages (not cash out refi) jumped as people took advantage of the low rates and jump in equity to sell and move up. Here, I believe you are right. The piper is coming.

Once people that didn't 'need' the money realized such, most paid off debt or saved it. Those who needed it, used it for those needs.

*Opinion* The people who used "cheap money" to purchase cards (and meme stocks and crypto) are the same who would use a payday loan to go to a casino.

There aren't many, and they surely could not move the market.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Deertick

There aren't many, and they surely could not move the market.

I'd think youre mistaken. Look at Gamestop and AMC stock compared to the losses by the hedge funds shorting it.


People were bribing the target suppliers to buy retail boxes to resell on ebay minutes later for double or more.


Panini begin "dutch auctions" where wax boxes sell out at 1k within minutes. Paying on your credit card is a short term loan since just about any card inside, or the box itself, would bring a profit as soon as it gets to your door.

PSA inundated with modern cards, literally out of the box, since 9s and 10s bring a huge multiple because they will just be "worth more" graded or next month.


Long time psa dealer stole/lost 1 million worth of grading fees as turnaround times slowed as the modern market sank.

Just like biotech and qqq they are the first to get hit, then the mega caps start falling, while people start buying to find a middle ground.

Most dangerous words in any market "this time it will be different". However, if you dont need to sell, and make good buys, historically you will be fine.

1986 fleer jordan psa 1s, not so sure


People certainly used pandemic loans to buy cards. If they never had these funds, the card wouldnt have sold at that price, or at all.

[Deertick]

I'd think youre mistaken. Look at Gamestop and AMC stock compared to the losses by the hedge funds shorting it.
A relatively small # of 'influencers' doing a viral pump and dump play to stick it to the man. On a game interface to boot. What do you think would happen if they decided to mess with a sector short?

People were bribing the target suppliers to buy retail boxes to resell on ebay minutes later for double or more.
This is accurately describing the investor sharks. Day traders, same as for 86/87D and 89UD, except the interface environment allows to flip in minutes rather than days.

Panini begin "dutch auctions" where wax boxes sell out at 1k within minutes. Paying on your credit card is a short term loan since just about any card inside, or the box itself, would bring a profit as soon as it gets to your door.

YES, yes, yes. BUT buying enough vintage cards to move the market in the way that it has?


People certainly used pandemic loans to buy cards. If they never had these funds, the card wouldnt have sold at that price, or at all.

Technically, this is true. But that is also true for any other purchase I make in the future, sort of a 'But for' scenario.

[Johnny630]

The FOMO is OVERO

[Republicaninmass]

1955 clemente psa 8

6/30/2016 $150,391.00

11/16/2018 $26,400.00

5/23/2021 $59,040.00

4/2/2022. $79,198.80


This time it wont be different. I just hope it cycles back up when I sell!