Ranking of T206 Rarities

[Sean]

I think that you're too high on the Lenox Browns. I would estimate 30-35 of them.

[mrvster]

I think I was high originally on that pop.....maybe 100 Planks???

more Uzits I think....

[Lobo Aullando]

Drums and Uzits are already in the 150 range in the PSA pop report. Throw in pre-brand attribution PSA cards, other slabbers, and raw cards, and one would at least have to double that.

[FrankWakefield]

I think there's twice that number of Wagner cards.

[CrackaJackKid]

I thought there were 20 or less known Brown OM.

[MVSNYC]

Thanks for the input so far. Will continue to tweak/update the second list above, keep some estimates coming.

[Jobu]

The galleries on the T206 Resource show 46 Wagners and 64 Planks. There are almost certainly more of each out there, but given the status of these cards in the hobby and the amount of time that people have been following them, it seems to me that the ratio between these might at least be close.

I can make an argument for a slightly larger % of unknown Planks than unknown/not in the gallery Wagners. The Resource ratio is 64/46 Plank/Wagner, or 1.39:1. If we bump this up to assume a few more missing Planks than Wagners, say 1.5:1 and go with 60 Wagners, that gets us to 90 Planks.

I think a more interesting question for Plank is how many 150 vs 350 there are given how much nicer and more desirable the 150s are. At the moment, I think we know the backs of 51 Planks:

SC150/25 - 2
SC150/30 - 9
PD150 - 5
SC350/30 - 35

16/51 (31.4%) of these are 150 series. Applying this to the total of 90 above, that means we have 28 of the 150s and 62 of the 350s.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

I think there's twice that number of Wagner cards.

It's interesting, in general there seem to be two schools of thought. One says the last three decades or so of exploding prices and the internet and just the passage of time have brought most of the rarities and high grade material out into the open. The other believes there are still vast numbers of amazing but unknown raw collections buried deep out there somewhere. I tend to believe that if the latter were still true we would see more "finds" than we do coming out still, as people pass on, their families move their collections, etc., but truly I don't know.

BTW, what is the more recent previously undocumented Wagner to surface?

[Exhibitman]

I think we're actually premature to declare the old-school collections tapped out. I know quite a few collectors in the 50-75 y.o. range who have been actively collecting for 50-70 years, have insane collections that they do not broadcast, and who do not generally bother with slabbing unless they are selling something. Those collectors tend to favor prewar cards rather heavily and have a good number of rare cards sitting in their binders. 25 years from now is more likely when we can start saying the OG raw collections are winding down.

[BearBailey]

Didn’t Cooperstown have an exhibit one year tht was the largest collection of t206 Wagner’s ever in one place. I thought they got 48-55 on loan and they knew of around 20 more at least that people were un-willing to let them borrow for the exhibit? I think it was 1995. It was a really impressive display.

[FrankWakefield]

I agree with Adam.

Several years ago when I first found this Net54 place, I was trying to gather all information I could. This place was a treasure. It still is. My knowledge base before had been a handful of collectors in Kentucky, and then what I gleaned from Mr. Lipset, and his publication The Old Judge. Back then, in the 80s and 90s, I'm certain that there were 3 Wagner cards in Kentucky. (I still smile when I think of holding one for a minute, no slab, no sleeve.) And while I knew of 3 separate Wagners in Kentucky, my guess would have been that there may have been one or two more, ones of which I didn't know.

I think that 'new' collectors that think about grading, registry, and all of that presume that anyone with a Wagner would get it graded. That they'd post pictures here. But that is not the mindset of many of the veteran collectors. Although many of the veteran collectors will get first rate cards graded before selling or consigning them, a bunch of those fellows aren't yet ready to slab up and cash out. (Color up and cash out pun intended.)

Now I don't think Kentucky is the great resting place for old tobacco cards. The state has a fair share, maybe slightly more. And we definitely have the market cornered on ornery, contrary, hard headedness. But there must be a bunch of card collectors scattered about, that have yet to come to market. A granddad passes a cigar box of old cards down to a grandkid in the present, and that kid isn't gonna sell that box of cards because of sentimentality (and because he likes the old cards, which is why granddad gave them to him in the first place). I know someone who got cigar box of Topps cards, almost entirely 1955s, with a very few 56s and 57s. Think about 4 Clemente's all about EX. 3 Koufax's, all EX. A couple of that #2 card from 1955, and a few Mays and Robinson cards, Near Mint or Excellent. I think he got them from his grandmother eventually, when he was little and visiting her she'd let him look at them. I'd guess there were close to 500 cards. I don't know, but I'm fairly certain they are sill in that cigar box, none have been sold, none have been graded. All are in very nice shape. No rubber bands, no tape. Neatly stacked.

The old tobacco cards, the early candy cards, the 50s Topps cards... guys, there are these stashes still out there, UNGRADED and not for sale. These aren't treasures waiting to be found, most folks with these cards have some idea of their value. But they are off your radar.