Gas prices and buying cards

[Yoda]

As far as gas prices are concerned, I think Americans have been spoiled for a long time when they go to fill up their large SUV's. I lived in the UK for nearly 20 years over two different time periods and wept every time I filled up my modest small car. When I left London in 2013 and returned to the hobby, a gallon of regular cost around $15 a gallon. Most of this, of course, is tax and, of course, our politicians don't dare talk about raising the gas tax. And, I believe until recently, Britain was a net exporter of petroleum thanks to their vast North S oil reserves. This awful war in the Ukraine is going to pound the Western European economies as their energy imports become even more dear.
I can't help but wonder, now that the US has cut off Russian oil, whether we could make up our shortfall from our nice neighbor to the north, Canada? Better than Venezuela (ugh) or Iran (double ugh).
I believe pre-war should hold its value unless the war widens, while I see '60's and 70's vintage under pressure. How modern basketball and all those red hot NFL quarterbacks end up is anyone's guess. If everything falls apart at least we still have our cards.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Yoda

If everything falls apart at least we still have our cards.

On the 1970s issues, I've spoken with a number of middle-class vintage collectors who are starting to collect 1970s cards because of the high cost of earlier cards. It's fun and not a financial risk.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Yoda

I can't help but wonder, now that the US has cut off Russian oil, whether we could make up our shortfall from our nice neighbor to the north, Canada?

We already import most of our oil from Canada. In 2020, Canadian imports made up about 61% of our oil imports. I think last year was about 57%. Those numbers may very slightly depending on your source, but the majority of our imports already come from Canada. Russia was about 4th on the list.

Edited to add: And the current administration is looking to lift the ban on Venezuelan oil.

[Yoda]

I knew that, but meant if Russian oil imports represents 7% of US energy needs, why not ask Canada to prime their pumps and make up the shortfall. They got plenty.
Personally, I would prefer to suffer at the pump rather than have us import oil from those 2 terrorist rogue states, Venezuela and Iran.

[Directly]

Synthetic fuel or synfuel is a liquid fuel, or sometimes gaseous fuel, obtained from either syngas, a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen, or a mixture of carbon dioxide and hydrogen. The syngas could be derived from gasification of solid feedstocks such as coal or biomass or by reforming of natural gas. Alternatively a mixture of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and green hydrogen could be used for an almost climate neutral production of synthetic fuels.

Common ways for refining synthetic fuels include the Fischer–Tropsch conversion,[1] methanol to gasoline conversion,[2] or direct coal liquefaction.[3]

As of July 2019, worldwide commercial synthetic fuels production capacity was over 240,000 barrels per day (38,000 m3/d), with numerous new projects in construction or development, such as Carbon Engineering. (Fuel for thought)

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by Yoda

...
I can't help but wonder, now that the US has cut off Russian oil, whether we could make up our shortfall from our nice neighbor to the north, Canada? Better than Venezuela (ugh) or Iran (double ugh).

Thank you for this. While I post here intermittently, and read daily, I try and stay neutral here. However, on this topic I struggle to do so.
Given that, as someone who lives in Western Canada, I (and many others up here) cannot understand why your current president is so against getting this resource from us. The US imports approximately 660,000 Barrels of Oil a day from Russia. Keystone was going to supply slightly more than that on a daily basis. It is stopped in its tracks on day 1 of the new term. Then as prices goes up, he goes to Saudi and basically says "Pump more oil... oh yeah, and sell it to us."
Now Venezuela, Iraq, and OPEC are approached to provide more. No mention of coming to Canada for supply.
Canada has the third largest reserves in the world. We have among the highest environmental standards in the world. Canada is not going to invade any other democratic country. We don't kill reporters.
We in Western Canada simply don't understand the logic and bias.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Given that, as someone who lives in Western Canada, I (and many others up here) cannot understand why your current president is so against getting this resource from us.

I don't have the answer, but I can speculate. Canadian oil has heavy sands. It is more time consuming to refine, it pollutes the environment (air and freshwater) 3X more than conventional crude, and it's more harsh on the process equipment because of the abrasiveness. All around, it's more costly to refine. Again, I don't know if that's the reason or not, but I imagine that has a lot to do with it.

[nolemmings]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I don't have the answer, but I can speculate. Canadian oil has heavy sands. It is more time consuming to refine, it pollutes the environment (air and freshwater) 3X more than conventional crude, and it's more harsh on the process equipment because of the abrasiveness. All around, it's more costly to refine. Again, I don't know if that's the reason or not, but I imagine that has a lot to do with it.

Correct.

[steve B]

On a more card related note.


What I think might happen going forward slowly at first is the shipping costs will make brick and mortar hobby shops come back.
But not as traditional single hobby places.

More like what some were in the early 80's.
My town had a full time card store, but also had a fabric store with an added antique shop that began carrying cards.
And a couple places that carried a few.

Now, there's a place in the next town over that is an ice cream stand that has converted a section of indoor seating/ordering into a card shop. And not a fancy one, but a more old fashioned place that has boxes of commons to go through along with some slightly better stuff in that $5-50 range. Exactly the stuff that isn't really practical to buy on Ebay when shipping could get much higher soon.

So I can combine trips, take the kids for ice cream, and get some cards while we're there.

That's the sort of thing I think is going to become far more common.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by steve B

On a more card related note.


What I think might happen going forward slowly at first is the shipping costs will make brick and mortar hobby shops come back.
But not as traditional single hobby places.

More like what some were in the early 80's.
My town had a full time card store, but also had a fabric store with an added antique shop that began carrying cards.
And a couple places that carried a few.

Now, there's a place in the next town over that is an ice cream stand that has converted a section of indoor seating/ordering into a card shop. And not a fancy one, but a more old fashioned place that has boxes of commons to go through along with some slightly better stuff in that $5-50 range. Exactly the stuff that isn't really practical to buy on Ebay when shipping could get much higher soon.

So I can combine trips, take the kids for ice cream, and get some cards while we're there.

That's the sort of thing I think is going to become far more common.

Like a Pizza Hut and Wingstop sharing a space. If they make us share space with comic book people, though, there will be blood.

[Cliff Bowman]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Like a Pizza Hut and Wingstop sharing a space. If they make us share space with comic book people, though, there will be blood.

Speaking of comic book people, comic book prices have gone insane, I have no doubt my vintage comic collection is worth way more than my baseball card and baseball memorabilia collection which I have spent more on.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I don't have the answer, but I can speculate. Canadian oil has heavy sands. It is more time consuming to refine, it pollutes the environment (air and freshwater) 3X more than conventional crude, and it's more harsh on the process equipment because of the abrasiveness. All around, it's more costly to refine. Again, I don't know if that's the reason or not, but I imagine that has a lot to do with it.

While that is true, the oil coming into the US and potentially from Venezuela is also heavy crude. Refineries in and around Houston, on the Gulf Coast, are currently built to process that crude. That is why heavy oil from Western Canada was to travel down through Keystone to the Gulf Coast, to be refined and shipped.
As for environmental standards, while I do not have any exact metrics, I would be shocked if oil extracted from Russia (or Saudi, for example) via a well, pumped to a loading station, loaded into tankers, loaded onto a barge, having that barge travel across the Atlantic, unloaded from the barge, transferred to a refinery in the US, and then refined is (in the end) a lower carbon footprint than shipping product directly from Western Canada to the US Gulf Coast via a pipeline.
As for environmental standards in Russia, I have known some pipeline people who have worked in Russia. A pipeline spill over there is almost fixed with duct tape, with product continually spilled onto the ground. The environmental standards are nil.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

While that is true, the oil coming into the US and potentially from Venezuela is also heavy crude. Refineries in and around Houston, on the Gulf Coast, are currently built to process that crude. That is why heavy oil from Western Canada was to travel down through Keystone to the Gulf Coast, to be refined and shipped.

Yes, a lot of the Venezuelan reserves are also heavy, but not as viscous as Canadian oil sands. And yes, we (the Texas Gulf Coast) do have local refineries designed to process the heavier stuff, but it's also more costly and time consuming. The abrasiveness wears out the equipment faster - pipes, pumps, valves, tanks, separators, etc. - and that equipment has to be replaced more often.

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

As for environmental standards, while I do not have any exact metrics, I would be shocked if oil extracted from Russia (or Saudi, for example) via a well, pumped to a loading station, loaded into tankers, loaded onto a barge, having that barge travel across the Atlantic, unloaded from the barge, transferred to a refinery in the US, and then refined is (in the end) a lower carbon footprint than shipping product directly from Western Canada to the US Gulf Coast via a pipeline.

The refining process of heavy oil sands leaves behind a bunch of nasty hazardous coke (and not the stuff you drink). Can we ship that crap back to Canada? Maybe make the pipeline bi-directional and send that stuff back to y'all?

Please don't take what I said the wrong way. I'm not in disagreement with you. I actually agree with you. I'm just trying to explain why (in my opinion) we don't get more oil from Canada. If it were up to me, we would.

[bobbyw8469]

We need to open up drilling....in America. Plain and simple.

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I don't have the answer, but I can speculate. Canadian oil has heavy sands. It is more time consuming to refine, it pollutes the environment (air and freshwater) 3X more than conventional crude, and it's more harsh on the process equipment because of the abrasiveness. All around, it's more costly to refine. Again, I don't know if that's the reason or not, but I imagine that has a lot to do with it.

For the last 10 years, and the next 3 months, I've been in the pipeline industry. I remember a few years back, my employer was sending railcar loads of Y-Grade NGLs from East Texas up to Canada to dilute the tar sand oil so they could actually get it viscous enough to move down a pipeline. It is nasty stuff.

A couple of related thoughts. First, a slight peeve of this pipeliner: President Biden did not cancel the Keystone pipeline, which has been in service since 2010. He canceled Keystone XL, which is duplicative of Keystone. KXL was a more direct route and was problematic from the start, since it went through the heart of the Oglala aquifer. Sometime in 2017, I was visiting the Welspun pipe mill in Little Rock and there was acre after acre of whitewashed KX pipe sitting in outside the mill. You could actually see it in satellite photos.

As others have pointed out, canceling KXL has little to do with current prices. Nor does a ban on drilling in federal land, where less than 10% of the US production originates. The Russia situation is contributing, but there is a bigger gorilla in the room. As of yesterday, there was 663 rigs operating in the US. As recently as December 2014, there were over 1900 rigs operating. And, between 2017 and 2019, the count was consistently over 900 to 1000. There is theoretically the ability to increase US production. The question is what exactly is impeding it. My more financially inclined friends tell me that shale production has never produced the promised return. Whether we are seeing increased capital discipline on the part of production companies or less willingness on the part of Wall Street to write blank checks for drilling is above my pay grade. But, it does appear there is some structural issues in the industry unrelated to the changing political winds.

And because every thread needs a card.

boyd.jpg

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Thank you for this. While I post here intermittently, and read daily, I try and stay neutral here. However, on this topic I struggle to do so.
Given that, as someone who lives in Western Canada, I (and many others up here) cannot understand why your current president is so against getting this resource from us. The US imports approximately 660,000 Barrels of Oil a day from Russia. Keystone was going to supply slightly more than that on a daily basis. It is stopped in its tracks on day 1 of the new term. Then as prices goes up, he goes to Saudi and basically says "Pump more oil... oh yeah, and sell it to us."
Now Venezuela, Iraq, and OPEC are approached to provide more. No mention of coming to Canada for supply.
Canada has the third largest reserves in the world. We have among the highest environmental standards in the world. Canada is not going to invade any other democratic country. We don't kill reporters.
We in Western Canada simply don't understand the logic and bias.

Bravo Bob. As a Canadian, you expressed it best. I am a life-long registered Democrat and, of course, am utterly baffled why Biden cancelled the Keystone Pipeline at a time when the US now has a dire energy problem. Politics as usual, I fear, to keep the far left and the Greens mollified. How short term can you get, the same problem that has gotten the US in messes many times, and we don't seem to learn. Bob, I presume that Canada could pump and export enough non-Keystone oil to fill the 7% energy shortfall we will incur as Russian exports cease. With your vast reserves, I would think so. Anything is better than bringing in oil from those rogue states, Venezuela, Iran, and the Saudis.
I have several dear Canadian friends in Ontario (Lake Simco area) who always says US actions keep them guessing.
Leon, I haven't forgotten the card rule. I picked up, on Ebay of all places, a beautiful PSA5 Rochester Baking Jack Lapp. Deals can be hard to sniff out on Ebay but they are there.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Yoda

am utterly baffled why Biden cancelled the Keystone Pipeline at a time when the US now has a dire energy problem.

Even if he hadn't cancelled the Keystone Pipeline, it wouldn't make a difference present day. The pipeline would still be under construction and it would be a few years before it was online and operational. But I agree that either way it just wasn't a good move, and it set the tone for his energy policies from day one.

On another note, I'm being told to keep a full tank of gas at all times. Our existing pipelines are targets for hackers. Remember last year when the Colonial Pipeline was hacked (I think it was the Russians) and it created gas shortages?

[peanuts]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Even if he hadn't cancelled the Keystone Pipeline, it wouldn't make a difference present day. The pipeline would still be under construction and it would be a few years before it was online and operational. But I agree that either way it just wasn't a good move, and it set the tone for his energy policies from day one.

On another note, I'm being told to keep a full tank of gas at all times. Our existing pipelines are targets for hackers. Remember last year when the Colonial Pipeline was hacked (I think it was the Russians) and it created gas shortages?

Colonial Pipeline hack was part of the DarkSide ransomware streak. Not believed to be state sponsored, nor even based in Russia – evidence heavily points towards them being based in a former Soviet Bloc country, with affiliates throughout the region.

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Bring back regional issues in general! SO much fun to collect.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by peanuts

Bring back regional issues in general! SO much fun to collect.

I'm a cardaholic and I approve this message!

[BobC]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Even if he hadn't cancelled the Keystone Pipeline, it wouldn't make a difference present day. The pipeline would still be under construction and it would be a few years before it was online and operational. But I agree that either way it just wasn't a good move, and it set the tone for his energy policies from day one.

On another note, I'm being told to keep a full tank of gas at all times. Our existing pipelines are targets for hackers. Remember last year when the Colonial Pipeline was hacked (I think it was the Russians) and it created gas shortages?

Doesn't even have to be hackers, remember the major power outage from back in August, 2003 that took out 21 power plants throughout the Northeast US and Canada, affecting over 50 million people? Took them a couple days to finally get everything back to normal. The whole thing started when a tree branch in Walton Hills, Ohio, about 10 minutes from my house, fell on a power line and started a chain reaction.

Technology is great.............until it isn't. The more we use it, the more totally dependent we become on it. Remember the Enron debacle, that would have never been able to happen if computers weren't involved. And hackers and cyber criminals just make everything worse, especially as we are being slowly forced to do virtually everything electronically/digitally anymore.

One of the nice things about cards (or other old time collectibles) is you can still hold, feel, look at, and even smell them, in person if you want. Not the same with NFTs or stuff held in someone's vault, where you can only see pictures of what you have online, without having to make a special trip to go visit them. And if the power goes out or the internet goes down, I still have and can enjoy my cards.

[VintageBall]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Even if he hadn't cancelled the Keystone Pipeline, it wouldn't make a difference present day. The pipeline would still be under construction and it would be a few years before it was online and operational. But I agree that either way it just wasn't a good move, and it set the tone for his energy policies from day one.



On another note, I'm being told to keep a full tank of gas at all times. Our existing pipelines are targets for hackers. Remember last year when the Colonial Pipeline was hacked (I think it was the Russians) and it created gas shortages?

Interestingly, the Keystone was only 2% done when canceled. So you are correct.

As to perceptions about current tone, the facts are what matter:

Federal data shows the Biden administration approved 3,557 permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands in its first year, far outpacing the Trump administration’s first-year total of 2,658.

This isn't political spin by them or me or anyone on this board. These are simply numbers.

Nearly 2,000 of the drilling permits were approved on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management's New Mexico office, followed by 843 in Wyoming, 285 in Montana and North Dakota, and 191 in Utah. In California, the Biden administration approved 187 permits — more than twice the 71 drilling permits Trump approved in that state in his first year.

And there are currently 9,173 approved oil drilling permits that have been approved but are going unused by the oil industry.

Meaning that the oil companies here at home could be going to town pumping out oil but are not doing so. But more production could lower prices and the profits that the oil companies are currently pocketing precisely because gas prices are high.

Even so, oil production in the U.S. in 2021 (Biden) was on par with 2020 production and exceeded yearly production from 2016-18 (Trump), data shows. Again, no spin and no politics. Numbers.

But why let the facts get in the way of a good story about the current administration killing oil production? Maybe the current administration wants to, but they sure haven't done so, which actually has led to angry press releases from environmental groups. So they've managed to anger both their own constituents and those of their political opponents.

But take heart, at least oil company execs probably are using all their newfound cash to buy expensive baseball cards and contribute to increased card prices, right? This last statement is pure speculation, of course. Maybe they prefer buying comic books and NFTs of cartoon gorillas more than cards!

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by VintageBall

Interestingly, the Keystone was only 2% done when canceled. So you are correct.

As to perceptions about current tone, the facts are what matter:

Federal data shows the Biden administration approved 3,557 permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands in its first year, far outpacing the Trump administration’s first-year total of 2,658.

This isn't political spin by them or me or anyone on this board. These are simply numbers.

Nearly 2,000 of the drilling permits were approved on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management's New Mexico office, followed by 843 in Wyoming, 285 in Montana and North Dakota, and 191 in Utah. In California, the Biden administration approved 187 permits — more than twice the 71 drilling permits Trump approved in that state in his first year.

And there are currently 9,173 approved oil drilling permits that have been approved but are going unused by the oil industry.

Meaning that the oil companies here at home could be going to town pumping out oil but are not doing so. But more production could lower prices and the profits that the oil companies are currently pocketing precisely because gas prices are high.

Even so, oil production in the U.S. in 2021 (Biden) was on par with 2020 production and exceeded yearly production from 2016-18 (Trump), data shows. Again, no spin and no politics. Numbers.

But why let the facts get in the way of a good story about the current administration killing oil production? Maybe the current administration wants to, but they sure haven't done so, which actually has led to angry press releases from environmental groups. So they've managed to anger both their own constituents and those of their political opponents.

But take heart, at least oil company execs probably are using all their newfound cash to buy expensive baseball cards and contribute to increased card prices, right? This last statement is pure speculation, of course. Maybe they prefer buying comic books and NFTs of cartoon gorillas more than cards!

First, let me deal with the bold text. Yes, it is meant to be political because I know the left-leaning BS source of information for your post (see screenshot below). Nice copy and paste skills by the way.

Second, yup those are real numbers, but the numbers don't tell the entire story. Do you want to dissect those numbers? How many of those were new permits? How many of them were permit extensions? You do know a drilling permit only lasts 2 years in most states, don't you? You also know that sometimes it is more profitable not to drill, don't you? You also know that sometimes permits are issued on land that has no producible oil and gas, don't you (it's leverage used against competition)? Drilling permits only cost a few hundred dollars and a lot of time they're obtained just as a game for one reason or another.

Last, as I stated earlier in this thread, I've spent the last 15 years in the oil in gas industry. I don't know everything, but I know a lot. Please tell me what industry you work in so I can school you all about it.

Originally Posted by VintageBall

Nearly 2,000 of the drilling permits were approved on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management's New Mexico office, followed by 843 in Wyoming, 285 in Montana and North Dakota, and 191 in Utah. In California, the Biden administration approved 187 permits — more than twice the 71 drilling permits Trump approved in that state in his first year.

[GrewUpWithJunkWax]

All roads lead to energy.

The spike in prices has sent many drivers rushing to the pump to get ahead of increasing pump prices. Those rushes exacerbate weaknesses in an already stressed supply chain. On top of the truck driver shortage, US crude supply is well-below the 5yr avg, gasoline is low, and diesel is even worse. Now, with Europe in such need, a lot of product is going to be exported to those countries.

Tying into to baseball... there's a fun Moneyball scene edited for the current oil situation:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1501762759209504769

I like reading the perspectives held by long-time hobbyists, who have lived the economic ups & downs and seen the impacts on cards. It's great and appreciated.

I'd lean toward the idea that the middle gets squeezed the most. Inflation, cost of everyday goods/needs, plus a lot of travel expected this year, and people will have to spend more to do so - all siphoning away some of the funds that might have otherwise gone to cards.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Bravo Bob. As a Canadian, you expressed it best. I am a life-long registered Democrat and, of course, am utterly baffled why Biden cancelled the Keystone Pipeline at a time when the US now has a dire energy problem. Politics as usual, I fear, to keep the far left and the Greens mollified. How short term can you get, the same problem that has gotten the US in messes many times, and we don't seem to learn. Bob, I presume that Canada could pump and export enough non-Keystone oil to fill the 7% energy shortfall we will incur as Russian exports cease. With your vast reserves, I would think so. Anything is better than bringing in oil from those rogue states, Venezuela, Iran, and the Saudis.
I have several dear Canadian friends in Ontario (Lake Simco area) who always says US actions keep them guessing.
Leon, I haven't forgotten the card rule. I picked up, on Ebay of all places, a beautiful PSA5 Rochester Baking Jack Lapp. Deals can be hard to sniff out on Ebay but they are there.

Thank you. Sometimes we in Western Canada almost feel abandoned.
As for your point, we have the production capabilities to fill the void. We cannot get it all to market (read that to mean the US and Europe) because of the lack of pipeline capacity to both the East and Gulf Coast. Our glorious sock loving man-child Prime Minister is more interested in looking good on the world stage instead of actually solving problems and supporting our own country. Impressing Michael Bloomberg, Jane Fonda, Bill Gates, and others is more important to him than supporting people and an industry that will provide highly paid and skilled job to folks in his own country, while providing energy independence to North America. Finally, the world is starting to see Justin for who he really is, a failed part time drama teacher and snowboard instructor with a nine figure trust fund behind him, and no discernible skills as a leader.