Hobby Resilience - Long Term

[Johnny630]

I have noticed over the past year and a half there is a major divergence in price cards sell for at AH’s vs Card Shows.

I’ve found most at shows other then the National that people Aren’t Dropping 5 figures on Graded cards at shows, not happening. People are being smart at shows buying mid level Graded and Raw. They’re not spending at shows like that people are definitely being careful.

[Foo3112]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I have noticed over the past year and a half there is a major divergence in price cards sell for at AH’s vs Card Shows.

I’ve found most at shows other then the National that people Aren’t Dropping 5 figures on Graded cards at shows, not happening. People are being smart at shows buying mid level Graded and Raw. They’re not spending at shows like that people are definitely being careful.

In October, I attended the Dallas Card Show and I saw the biggest stack of cash I had ever seen. I have seen 130K in person. This stack was much bigger. All Cash. There was a 2009 Bowman Chrome Trout Refractor PSA graded and some other cards being sold. They were counting the money. The guy who was buying did not appear to be a dealer either and I did not catch him behind a table both days I attended.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Foo3112

In October, I attended the Dallas Card Show and I saw the biggest stack of cash I had ever seen. I have seen 130K in person. This stack was much bigger. All Cash. There was a 2009 Bowman Chrome Trout Refractor PSA graded and some other cards being sold. They were counting the money. The guy who was buying did not appear to be a dealer either and I did not catch him behind a table both days I attended.

Drug money being laundered, perhaps?

[Exhibitman]

I think there is some (understandable) reluctance to flash huge piles of cash at public events. I would guess that the biggest deals are not done in plain view of the public at a card show.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I think there is some (understandable) reluctance to flash huge piles of cash at public events. I would guess that the biggest deals are not done in plain view of the public at a card show.

Heck, even travelling to a show with such cash now is dangerous. If ever stopped, police will simply take it from you and claim it as asset forfeiture. Wouldn't be overly surprised to hear of police specifically patrolling a show, like the National, just looking for someone's money to grab some day.

[Snapolit1]

In my mind modern is an awful long term investment. The simple fact is the virtually all of the modern collecting game is based on hype. The players that take off are usually players of unknown potential. Zion Williamson. Jasson Dominguez. A buzz builds about this special amazing talent and the hype machine goes nuts. I've watched the breaking world pretty carefully the last two years or so. Names that people were salivating over even a year ago are now off the radar screen altogether. And sometimes the "off the radar screen" guy is a solid player. Luis Robert. Gavin Lux. But 2-3 years ago they were unproven and now we know what they are. They were more in demand unproven. Damm good players. But they are not the second coming of Mikey Mantle.

The bigger issue is there is no extraordinary mystery or mystique around players anymore today. Times have changed. Who are the biggest 2 names in the hobby. Mantle and Ruth. They are iconic. None one on this board (I assume) saw Ruth. Many board members saw Mantle but he was an enigma. It was a different world. He was a blank slate that people projected their hopes and dreams on. That's why even today a fairly mundane (some times perfectly obnoxious) guy in a lot of ways keeps his mystique.
You didn't know him like we "know" players today. Look at some of the stars of more recent timers. Aaron Rodgers. Matt Harvey. Curt Schilling. Dwight Gooden. We know them warts and all and they are actual, complicated human beings. Sure Ty Cobb and Babe were complicated people, but we've only read about them. Even my man Lou Gehrig is painted in such broad strokes that you don't really know him as a person. Same with actors. James Dean is a great example. Still to this day an enigma. People didn't know him like we know actors today. A different world. Many many actors today far better than James Dean, but they are real flesh and blood people and don't seem so special.

I have zero doubt that the super high end of the modern card collecting world is heavily manipulated by a small cabal of people, but that's a different discussion.

[Yoda]

I agree, and it is all too clear to me that buying and flipping high value modern stuff, particularly basketball, is not for the faint of heart.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I think there is some (understandable) reluctance to flash huge piles of cash at public events. I would guess that the biggest deals are not done in plain view of the public at a card show.

That's what I thought. Who would be dumb enough to do that, unless it was part of some scam directed at those watching? You would at least take it to the back of the table behind some boxes or something.

[molenick]

Lately, my participation in the hobby has been to see if any cards in an auction are ones that I own*, and then hope they sell for more than I paid, so that when I look at VCP it shows a net gain. That way "on paper" (technically "on screen") I am getting richer!

Basically, I can't participate to the level I used to because the cards I like to buy (higher condition cards for sets I am putting together; rarer type cards in nice but not top condition) have gotten too expensive. So I either need to drop my standards and have sets with grades far apart or sell off partially completed sets to fund other purchases.

* I don't mean cards I consigned, I mean the same card in the same condition as one that I own...but not my actual card

[abothebear]

I don't know as much as most of y'all about what is going on out there. But lately, I have seen a lot of people that have that same collector addiction in the modern realm that I saw in the 80s and 90s. Just like in the 80s and 90s, the market is set in the year it comes out into the next year. Most of the value degrades after that. A few things will go up. But the very high-priced stuff is a crapshoot and doesn't matter to most collectors since they are 1 of 50s or less. But there are people that are trying to put sets together. They'd rather buy the boxes or cases than the factory sets for the chance at the inserts. But they still try to build the sets.

I don't know what that means, but I wonder if many of them start working backward when they get tired of riding the crest of the wave.