Hobby Resilience - Long Term

[G1911]

Pre-War big names are more resilient by this point, but I'm not sure about post-war. Most of the vintage 'investment' cards are post-war, and have massive print runs. When the generation with a nostalgic attachment to them dies and the hobby gets a massive influx of Mantle/Clemente/Aaron/Robinson/Mays/Ryan/Etc. I'm not sure there are enough interested young people to buy this massive quantity at huge prices.

Pre-War is greatly aided by the small surviving populations (there's a lot of T206, T206, Goudey, not much else), and the sets with a lot of examples are often the only commonly found card of that player. It helps Cobb's T206's that he doesn't have many other commonly found career contemporary cards, even though his T206's themselves are common. It's not the same with the post-war players. I doubt that, for example, Clemente's will completely crater but there are a LOT of 1955 Topps Clemente's being invested in, much less his many other extremely common cards. How many young people will think it's worth the many $K's 55 Clemente's cost when the generation who grew up with him all have their collections hitting the market? There will, sadly, be an inevitable massive influx of post-war materials coming as that generation reaches the end of life.

Another issue to factor if one's purpose is long term investment is, I think, shifting cultural standards and the tendency to remove from the public sphere of acceptability figures of the past that do not meet the standards of the present. On the other hand, this hasn't yet hurt CDV's (again though, a small population item that doesn't need very many buyers to sustain prices) of certain once-respected-and-now-reviled historical figures, so perhaps it won't, or could even stroke interest in there items (after all, villains in a narrative sell. Cicotte would be valued somewhere between Vic Willis and George Mullin if he wasn't a villain). I would factor it in as a possible big hit on certain guys if I was investing.

By this point, I think the great stat players who are undervalued will remain undervalued. I don't see Eddie Collins ever getting the dollar value of his statistical value. We've been talking about how he is undervalued for my entire life. Far more buyers care about narratives than who was actually the best, and I think the safest investments are those with the best narratives.

Personally, I'm going to continue to keep investing separate from cards. My stocks are not necessarily a better investment (indeed, if I'd bought T206 Cobb Green's instead of Apple, Google and Amazon, I'd be doing about exactly as well, but with the extra benefit of getting to look at baseball lithography instead of graph charts), but it lets me simply enjoy the cards as a break from the stress of life and finance.

[Hankphenom]

I used to think, as the consensus seems to here, that in a generation or two, the desire for boomer idols, and perhaps even for the original legends from past generations, will fade and that would be reflected in the market for them. But lately I've started wondering if perhaps sports (and maybe non-sports) cards are becoming commoditized, if that's a word, and will retain and even increase in demand and value simply because there is a limited supply, they are gradable, easily stored and transported, and in general make for a good medium of repository of value. In other words, no collectible desire required, or perhaps better put, now disconnected from the original collectible desire that gave them their secondary value in the first place. The difference in value between them, however, will still be determined in the marketplace by the same factors as they have been historically: stature of the player, rarity, age, beauty, condition, etc. What won't be required is any feeling for the subjects, much like gold and silver today. With exceptions, nobody holds those coins for the subjects depicted, but for the value of the medium. McLuhan said it: "The medium is the message."

[JollyElm]

I wrote my feelings on this subject right into my signature line:

"Overpaying yesterday is simply underpaying tomorrow."

[butchie_t]

I believe once Fanatics has taken full control, the collecting hobby will no longer be a hobby.

Rant on……

It is just gonna be a madhouse free-for-all on who can get the shiniest chase card at that particular moment in time. Base sets will rapidly fall off the face of the collectors radar and everyone will be overpaying for a box of cards that only has two packs of 2 cards, looking for that Willie Wonka golden ticket. And then summarily flipping it and bitching that they did not get what the expected out of their ‘investment’.

Rant off…..

That is actually happening now with these advertised case breaks. Over pay for a maybe shot at a 1 of 1 common.

What ever happened to the distributors that did not gouge their customers? Certainly is a thing of the past, that is for sure.

This is reminiscent of the gold rush and all the people that mined the miners. Who got the better end of that deal……not the miners and not the hobbyist in the modern day scenario.

Butch Turner

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

With respect to wax (new cards in packs), it seems like folks have viewed buying packs/boxes like buying lottery tickets- really just a gamble to find some serial numbered/low print run/ auto and toss the rest away. Seen it a thousand times. Some don’t mind dropping the cash to have a few beers and bust packs for the fun of it. Others would rather buy a graded vintage item for their pc with that same $150.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by butchie_t

I believe once Fanatics has taken full control, the collecting hobby will no longer be a hobby.

Rant on……

It is just gonna be a madhouse free-for-all on who can get the shiniest chase card at that particular moment in time. Base sets will rapidly fall off the face of the collectors radar and everyone will be overpaying for a box of cards that only has two packs of 2 cards, looking for that Willie Wonka golden ticket. And then summarily flipping it and bitching that they did not get what the expected out of their ‘investment’.

Rant off…..

That is actually happening now with these advertised case breaks. Over pay for a maybe shot at a 1 of 1 common.

What ever happened to the distributors that did not gouge their customers? Certainly is a thing of the past, that is for sure.

This is reminiscent of the gold rush and all the people that mined the miners. Who got the better end of that deal……not the miners and not the hobbyist in the modern day scenario.

Butch Turner

Hate to say it, but can't disagree with your initial statement. It is going to be very interesting to see what happens in the future. And it won't surprise me to see the major sports leagues and their players (isn't that who owns a big portion of Fanatics?) go after the grading companies, breakers/dealers, and maybe even an AH or two at some point. They've come up with Fanatics to start with. And now they've figured out how to take over the production of sports cards. So what makes anyone think for even a moment that that will satisfy them and that they'll stop there? It seems fairly clear the sports leagues and players are as usual, all about the money, and will do whatever they can to make as much as possible off what they do. So why let others make money off of cards when they can take over parts of that ancillary industry and keep more of the money for themselves. Heck, if the major sports leagues can, they'll try to get in on the gambling industry as well. Just give them time. they'll figure a way to get paid.

I hope there is some movement in Congress to finally remove the exemption to the Sherman Anti-Trust Act that MLB has now had for 100 years. This investment by the major sports leagues and player's associations/unions in Fanatics, and the subsequent acquisition by Fanatics of the rights to produce cards (which they basically just gave to themselves), could just be the start of the efforts by the major sports league to monopolize different segments of the sports industry in their attempt to wrest control of as much of it as they can.

However, the one area of the "hobby" the leagues and players may not be able to grab control of is the vintage side of it. The cards were produced long ago, and rights and such, if applicable, paid for already.

[Yoda]

One thing for sure: card shows are back. And when watching UTube for the many videos featuring card shows, I get nervous when I see a 17 year old walking around with a briefcase full of $10,000 shiny stuff items looking for action. It seems like a lot of business is done by trade with little cash trading hands. To actually buy, say, a Zion RC autographed, patched and God knows what else takes a bit more than pocket money.
I have always worked the vintage end of the market and that is where I will stay.

[icollectDCsports]

This question, or variations, come up here frequently. What do you consider to be "long term?" I don't think people will value these things for generations in the same way folks do now, but not sure when that transition will occur.