Best investments by player and decade

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by joshleon

Yeah, I hedged with the Wagner example which some theorize was held back on purpose.

But as a general rule, collectibles which are released and marketed as such, often don't have the staying power. This could be a whole other thread and is off-topic from investing but it's related.

One of kind because it's the "only one left" is a different thing than one of a kind "because they only made one." There was no widespread exposure to the latter, while there was to the former, and the former has been lost because it wasn't a collectible.

I will probably eat these words and the Trout Refractor Auto will be 10mm in 20 years time.

I would put my money on eating the words...

We can grumble and shake a fist at modern production, but this is what those new collectors are chasing and growing up with. It will be the status quo when they get older and grow incomes to chase a new level of affordability.

Much like how the huge growth in 90s value as those collectors aged has become the rare inserts, scarce issues like "blue chips", or limited cards the same will happen.

I am way too old for even opening for autos in early 90s Upper Deck or even inserts other than Fleer stickers, but I recognize that the manufactured scarcity argument holds no water in card collecting if looked at critically with sales numbers.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I would put my money on eating the words...

We can grumble and shake a fist at modern production, but this is what those new collectors are chasing and growing up with. It will be the status quo when they get older and grow incomes to chase a new level of affordability.

Much like how the huge growth in 90s value as those collectors aged has become the rare inserts, scarce issues like "blue chips", or limited cards the same will happen.

I am way too old for even opening for autos in early 90s Upper Deck or even inserts other than Fleer stickers, but I recognize that the manufactured scarcity argument holds no water in card collecting if looked at critically with sales numbers.

Won't be the first time I was wrong...

And I am probably looking at it through the narrow lens of "what I, myself, like"

[darwinbulldog]

First thing you ought to do if you're trying to predict who will have been a great investment is rule out anyone whose cards are already expensive.

If I could go back in time 30 years and buy a poor condition 1952 Topps Mantle for $1,000, it would be worth $25,000 today.

But if I go back in time 30 years and invest that same $1,000 in minty-looking 1985 Topps Tiffany Mark McGwires, sell them all in 1999, reinvest in Barry Bonds rookies, sell them in 2005, reinvest in Lionel Messi rookies, and sell them all in 2021, I would have enough $ to buy a PSA 9 1952 Topps Mantle today.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

If I could go back in time 30 years and buy a poor condition 1952 Topps Mantle for $1,000, it would be worth $25,000 today.

Uh...30 years ago, I am pretty sure you could buy a poor 52 Topps Mantle for less than $1,000. I regret not being flush with money in those days, being a 1st Class/CPO in the Navy and being on CV-62/then Charleston while financing a home/family in Fort Lauderdale. But I went to many card shows, and I saw the 52 Mantles for sale. As I state in another thread, I bought 33 Goudey Ruth and Gehrig both for $500 ($250 each) in 1988, and in real nice shape both, using reenlistment bonus money.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by jingram058

Uh...30 years ago, I am pretty sure you could buy a poor 52 Topps Mantle for less than $1,000. I regret not being flush with money in those days, being a 1st Class/CPO in the Navy and being on CV-62/then Charleston while financing a home/family in Fort Lauderdale. But I went to many card shows, and I saw the 52 Mantles for sale. As I state in another thread, I bought 33 Goudey Ruth and Gehrig both for $500 ($250 each) in 1988, and in real nice shape both, using reenlistment bonus money.

Maybe so. They started at $2,000 for a beater when I was looking for one in 2004. But now that I think about it for each of my other 3 hypothetical steps you could make 100x ROI, so the $1,000 in 1992 would be a cool billion today, far more than enough to buy a PSA 10 '52 Topps Mantle. And anyway, the point is that Ruth and Cobb and Mantle and Robinson and Gehrig are almost certainly not among the best guys to invest in at this point. Most likely there are some cards worth less than $100 today that will be worth over $10,000 a generation from now.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Maybe so. They started at $2,000 for a beater when I was looking for one in 2004. But now that I think about it for each of my other 3 hypothetical steps you could make 100x ROI, so the $1,000 in 1992 would be a cool billion today, far more than enough to buy a PSA 10 '52 Topps Mantle. And anyway, the point is that Ruth and Cobb and Mantle and Robinson and Gehrig are almost certainly not among the best guys to invest in at this point. Most likely there are some cards worth less than $100 today that will be worth over $10,000 a generation from now.

In hindsight everyone makes millions. Good luck predicting NOW who those great investments are.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

predicting NOW who those great investments are.

Well now you've just rephrased the title of the thread.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Maybe so. They started at $2,000 for a beater when I was looking for one in 2004. But now that I think about it for each of my other 3 hypothetical steps you could make 100x ROI, so the $1,000 in 1992 would be a cool billion today, far more than enough to buy a PSA 10 '52 Topps Mantle. And anyway, the point is that Ruth and Cobb and Mantle and Robinson and Gehrig are almost certainly not among the best guys to invest in at this point. Most likely there are some cards worth less than $100 today that will be worth over $10,000 a generation from now.

I think you should spend 10K on Zeon parallels, prizm, protractor, orange chrome, aqua, kaboom, base PSA 10 1 of1.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

I think you should spend 10K on Zeon parallels, prizm, protractor, orange chrome, aqua, kaboom, base PSA 10 1 of1.

The idea is to turn $100 into $10,000; not the other way around.