I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle

[Exhibitman]

Basketball has been an absolutely brutal market for much of the year. Prices are down 50% or more since they peaked in 2020. Yet the cards that have held their gains the best are the older superstars: Russell, Chamberlain, Alcindor, etc. I think the same will be true of other sports' cards.

One thing that hasn't been discussed are the altered and counterfeit modern cards (and holders). I think we already have experienced a wave of modern card alteration that the TPGs of choice (PSA, Beckett) for modern just do not do a good job of detecting, and we are at the start of the great wave of modern card counterfeiting. Some of the reprints of old-tech modern RCs (like 86 Fleer Jordan) are really, really good and are hard to detect unless you know exactly what to look for.

There's also the question of whether any of these buyers are in it for more than a short term gain or bragging rights among people who are dabbling in the hobby and will readily move on to vintage game cartridges or whatever is the next thing to catch their fancy. Does anyone really think that a Luka Doncic card will inspire the same "from my cold, dead hand" collector mentality as a Ruth or Gehrig RC?

The biggest issue I have with modern is that LeBron James, Tom Brady and Mike Trout are unicorns--Wally Joyner, Kevin Maas and Gregg Jefferies are the norm--but the modern RCs are priced within a matter of weeks as if every prospect is a James or Brady level talent. They are also abundant in top grades, as we see with the Jordan RC, and very volatile; just ask the schmucks who paid over $700K for that card and watched prices drop by 50% in a few months. Buying and selling modern seems like a game of speculative hot potato and I believe that whoever is left with the card at the end is gonna get burned. Vintage has definitely taken some major price leaps forward in the last several months but relative to modern seems a better deal. A Foxx RC sells for a fraction of a Doncic RC? W.T.F.

[Snapolit1]

Height of insanity.

https://goldin.co/item/2020-bowman-c...asson-dom5w961

https://yanksgoyard.com/2022/01/23/y...ight-comments/

[Mrc32]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Height of insanity.

https://goldin.co/item/2020-bowman-c...asson-dom5w961

https://yanksgoyard.com/2022/01/23/y...ight-comments/

That is pretty good. Tulips anyone?

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

the modern RCs are priced within a matter of weeks as if every prospect is a James or Brady level talent

Yep. I would bet there are quite a few disappointed Zion Williamson (aka Greg Oden 2.0) "investors" out there atm...

[Gorditadogg]

Modern cards are a whole lot more volatile because the players' stories are not written yet. Looking at individual cards the gains are higher and the losses too. I think for modern you need to look at a basket of cards and see how the value in total has moved over time. Otherwise it's hard to get a true picture.

For example, 10 years ago I bought two rookie cards for $75 each, one Amare Stoudemire and one Yao Ming. Amare is now worth $25 while Yao just sold for $900. These are two extremes but overall I would guess that basketball card values have increased about 5 times in the last 10 years. A little bit better than baseball maybe, but not much.

But I am more confident in the basketball card market than baseball. Basketball has a global fanbase, with total fans 2-4 times baseball. The average basketball fan is much younger than baseball, and basketball popularity has been increasing over the last several years as baseball popularity has declined.

I think the whole sports card market could go through a correction as part of an overall economic pullback, but I really don't see basketball on the leading edge of it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I hope this doesn't come out sounding wrong, but is there perhaps a bit of the Great White Hope thing underlying some of his popularity?

https://theshadowleague.com/luka-don...n-waiting-for/

[drcy]

Anyone who's collected for decades is keenly aware of the history of fleetingly hot prospect and rookie cards. Pete Incavilia, Eric Davis, Daryl Strawberry, Joe Charmineau, Ki-Jana Carter.

I hope these folks know their history.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by drcy

Anyone who's collected for decades is keenly aware of the history of fleetingly hot prospect and rookie cards. Pete Incavilia, Eric Davis, Daryl Strawberry, Joe Charmineau, Ki-Jana Carter.

I hope these folks know their history.

But these guys at least were in the major leagues. People are paying $150,000 for a Jasson Dominguez card, who is on the bottom rung of professional baseball. Yikes.

[samosa4u]

It can be pretty crazy to see stuff like this happening - agreed. However, we all know that certain professional athletes have always been very popular although they're not the best or even close to being the best. For example, the most iconic vintage football card in the hobby is the 1965 Topps Joe Namath rookie. The last PSA 9 sold for quarter of a million and this was all the way back in 2018! Today, it could be worth over a million or even two million! Now, is this guy the greatest QB ever? Nope. Top ten? Nope. Top twenty? Nope! See what I mean?

Let's get back to Doncic. If this guy wins only one championship (like Namath), then this card is going to be a winner. Only 99 examples exist out there and the basketball card market is way bigger than football.

Oh my God! Did I just defend modern cards? What the hell is happening to me?

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

It can be pretty crazy to see stuff like this happening - agreed. However, we all know that certain professional athletes have always been very popular although they're not the best or even close to being the best. For example, the most iconic vintage football card in the hobby is the 1965 Topps Joe Namath rookie. The last PSA 9 sold for quarter of a million and this was all the way back in 2018! Today, it could be worth over a million or even two million! Now, is this guy the greatest QB ever? Nope. Top ten? Nope. Top twenty? Nope! See what I mean?

Let's get back to Doncic. If this guy wins only one championship (like Namath), then this card is going to be a winner. Only 99 examples exist out there and the basketball card market is way bigger than football.

Namath's title is possibly the most famous one in the history of American sports (and the most famous upset). It may have single-handedly propelled the NFL to eventually reach the behemoth status it has today in the country. It has the lore of the his swagger and guarantee. Probably the most remembered football game ever played.

Doncic would have to win many rings to even come close to his legacy comparing to that. And in the long run, I think his cards will need those kind of results to keep up with today's values.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Namath's title is possibly the most famous one in the history of American sports (and the most famous upset). It may have single-handedly propelled the NFL to eventually reach the behemoth status it has today in the country. It has the lore of the his swagger and guarantee. Probably the most remembered football game ever played.

Doncic would have to win many rings to even come close to his legacy comparing to that. And in the long run, I think his cards will need those kind of results to keep up with today's values.

As I have posted many times, the Namath card is the perfect storm, it's irrelevant that he may not be in the very first rank of the pantheon of quarterbacks. The Namath RC has little relevance to Luka Doncic.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I hope this doesn't come out sounding wrong, but is there perhaps a bit of the Great White Hope thing underlying some of his popularity?



https://theshadowleague.com/luka-don...n-waiting-for/

Absolutely it helps his popularity. Along with Jokic two of the NBA's top players are now European.

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[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Absolutely it helps his popularity. Along with Jokic two of the NBA's top players are now European.

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Haven't Jokic and Doncic always been European?

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Haven't Jokic and Doncic always been European?

Hah. Actually there are 3, Giannis Antetokounmpo was born and raised in Greece. The point is the diversity is good for the game, it gives fans more to relate to.

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[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Hah. Actually there are 3, Giannis Antetokounmpo was born and raised in Greece. The point is the diversity is good for the game, it gives fans more to relate to.

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Oh yeah, I agree. I'd probably mention Joel Embiid in that conversation too. (Not European but Int'l - raised in Cameroon)

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Hah. Actually there are 3, Giannis Antetokounmpo was born and raised in Greece. The point is the diversity is good for the game, it gives fans more to relate to.

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Agree. It also can lead to an increase in demand (and as a result price) for these players as they may have entire countries or areas of the world now wanting their cards. It wasn't too long ago that it was pretty much only Americans interested so much in basketball cards.