I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

...I get I am a fossil...

You're not alone. Nearly all the members of this board, even the twenty-somethings, are fossils.

I, for one, am proud (and glad) to be a fossil. While the "millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers" types have been buying modern the past two years, I have been acquiring Mantles and T206 HOFers. Had the newcomers targeted vintage instead of modern, my collection might have remained fairly static during 2020-21.

So, let them pay exorbitant prices for the Golden Ticket Rainbow Shimmer Ultrafractor of what's-his-name. Meanwhile, I'll be paying (slightly) less ridiculous prices for "pictures of long dead sporting men."

Credit to Peter Spaeth and Steven Finley for the quotes above

[babraham]

Originally Posted by Eric72

So, let them pay exorbitant prices for the Golden Ticket Rainbow Shimmer Ultrafractor of what's-his-name.

Nice! The Rainbow Shimmer is my favorite variation too.
The extra sparkle means more $$.

[drcy]

Long-term value versus short-term value

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by babraham

Nice! The Rainbow Shimmer is my favorite variation too.

The extra sparkle means more $$.

Naw. Much better to spend exorbitant amounts on 100-year-old cards of what's-his-name because his name is spelled wrong.

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[Exhibitman]

Basketball has been an absolutely brutal market for much of the year. Prices are down 50% or more since they peaked in 2020. Yet the cards that have held their gains the best are the older superstars: Russell, Chamberlain, Alcindor, etc. I think the same will be true of other sports' cards.

One thing that hasn't been discussed are the altered and counterfeit modern cards (and holders). I think we already have experienced a wave of modern card alteration that the TPGs of choice (PSA, Beckett) for modern just do not do a good job of detecting, and we are at the start of the great wave of modern card counterfeiting. Some of the reprints of old-tech modern RCs (like 86 Fleer Jordan) are really, really good and are hard to detect unless you know exactly what to look for.

There's also the question of whether any of these buyers are in it for more than a short term gain or bragging rights among people who are dabbling in the hobby and will readily move on to vintage game cartridges or whatever is the next thing to catch their fancy. Does anyone really think that a Luka Doncic card will inspire the same "from my cold, dead hand" collector mentality as a Ruth or Gehrig RC?

The biggest issue I have with modern is that LeBron James, Tom Brady and Mike Trout are unicorns--Wally Joyner, Kevin Maas and Gregg Jefferies are the norm--but the modern RCs are priced within a matter of weeks as if every prospect is a James or Brady level talent. They are also abundant in top grades, as we see with the Jordan RC, and very volatile; just ask the schmucks who paid over $700K for that card and watched prices drop by 50% in a few months. Buying and selling modern seems like a game of speculative hot potato and I believe that whoever is left with the card at the end is gonna get burned. Vintage has definitely taken some major price leaps forward in the last several months but relative to modern seems a better deal. A Foxx RC sells for a fraction of a Doncic RC? W.T.F.

[Snapolit1]

Height of insanity.

https://goldin.co/item/2020-bowman-c...asson-dom5w961

https://yanksgoyard.com/2022/01/23/y...ight-comments/

[Mrc32]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Height of insanity.

https://goldin.co/item/2020-bowman-c...asson-dom5w961

https://yanksgoyard.com/2022/01/23/y...ight-comments/

That is pretty good. Tulips anyone?

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

the modern RCs are priced within a matter of weeks as if every prospect is a James or Brady level talent

Yep. I would bet there are quite a few disappointed Zion Williamson (aka Greg Oden 2.0) "investors" out there atm...

[Gorditadogg]

Modern cards are a whole lot more volatile because the players' stories are not written yet. Looking at individual cards the gains are higher and the losses too. I think for modern you need to look at a basket of cards and see how the value in total has moved over time. Otherwise it's hard to get a true picture.

For example, 10 years ago I bought two rookie cards for $75 each, one Amare Stoudemire and one Yao Ming. Amare is now worth $25 while Yao just sold for $900. These are two extremes but overall I would guess that basketball card values have increased about 5 times in the last 10 years. A little bit better than baseball maybe, but not much.

But I am more confident in the basketball card market than baseball. Basketball has a global fanbase, with total fans 2-4 times baseball. The average basketball fan is much younger than baseball, and basketball popularity has been increasing over the last several years as baseball popularity has declined.

I think the whole sports card market could go through a correction as part of an overall economic pullback, but I really don't see basketball on the leading edge of it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I hope this doesn't come out sounding wrong, but is there perhaps a bit of the Great White Hope thing underlying some of his popularity?

https://theshadowleague.com/luka-don...n-waiting-for/

[drcy]

Anyone who's collected for decades is keenly aware of the history of fleetingly hot prospect and rookie cards. Pete Incavilia, Eric Davis, Daryl Strawberry, Joe Charmineau, Ki-Jana Carter.

I hope these folks know their history.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I hope this doesn't come out sounding wrong, but is there perhaps a bit of the Great White Hope thing underlying some of his popularity?



https://theshadowleague.com/luka-don...n-waiting-for/

Absolutely it helps his popularity. Along with Jokic two of the NBA's top players are now European.

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